Policies and positions of Mexico, Chile and Peru in TPP negotiation and their influence on regional integration of Latin America
Journal of Latin American Studies,2015,Vol 37,No. 06
【Abstract】 In October 2015, 12 countries led by the US basically and finally reached the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Mexico, Chile and Peru, three member states from Latin America, are members of the Pacific Alliance and have more open economic and political modes. For these three Latin American countries, participating in the TPP negotiations is the result of more of political considerations than economic interests. On the one hand, these three countries maintain a good traditional friendship with the United States and close bilateral contacts; on the other hand, they all have signed free trade agreements with most member states of TPP, while the new Asian markets have made limited contribution to their economies. TPP member countries develop greatly various economic levels, as TPP includes both developed countries represented by the United States and also developing countries. They have large differences on issues such as market access of agricultural products, rules of auto origin places and intellectual property protection (IPR). In addition, TPP agreement will intensify the opposition between Pacific Alliance and Mercosur, affecting the integration process of Latin America.
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies,2015,No. 02
【Abstract】 During the Cold War, the United States once achieved the hegemony in two-thirds of the world by constructing international institutions. But with the end of the Cold War, changes in the international system and in state power resulted in the U.S. losing its ability to maintain a hegemonic position at the global level. The U.S. has responded by shifting its strategy towards building hegemony at the regional level. For example, it has used Free Trade Areas (FTAs) to realize a leadership position and attain strategic regional interests. Most critical for the realization of regional strategic hegemony and leadership over FTAs is the completion of three tasks: changing regional power structures, achieving the ability to dictate rules and the development of soft power. Through an analysis of three cases, NAFTA, FTAA and TPP, this article demonstrates that America's efforts to realize regional hegemony have had varied results, largely because it has faced different levels of difficulty in completing these three tasks in each region. This has implications for its influence at the regional level and the competitiveness of its rivals in each region.
Foreign Affairs Review,2015,Vol 32,No. 03
【Abstract】 At present, the world economic system takes on three major characteristics in its evolution, namely, the transformation of “a century of Europe and America” to “a century of Asia;” the status of the United States as the only “center" challenged by China; and the change in the interest pattern from “center – periphery” to “plate-type and network-type.” Meanwhile, three giant FTA negotiations, namely, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), came into being in the world economic system. If the current giant Free Trade Agreement (FTA) phenomenon is analyzed from the perspective of the evolution of the world economic system, TPP and TTIP are the two major platforms for developed countries to rebalance the “century of Asia,” and RCEP is the essential carrier on which Asia balances TPP and TTIP. The interaction between China and the United States is the key factor in the game of balance.
Evolution of world's high–end manufacturing trade pattern against background of TPP: a study based on community analysis of complex networks
Journal of International Trade,2015,No. 08
【Abstract】 This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the high–end manufacturing exports of China and the U.S. in the Asia–Pacific region under the background of TPP, constructs a world trade network of the high–end manufacturing from 1992 to 2013, and studies the division and evolution of the network through Blondel algorithm. The study showed that the proportion of the high–end manufacturing exports of the U.S. to the Asian–Pacific economies increased significantly since the US joined the TPP in 2009 while that of China has declined. The evolution of the world's trade community network of high–end manufacturing experienced three stages, which were “dominance of the developed countries,” “rise of the Asia–Pacific region”and “post-financial crisis.' In 2009, the former Europe–Africa and Asia–Europe communities split into three communities: Europe–Africa, Asia–Europe and TPP communities. The rapid rise of the TPP community and the joining of the United States attracted the East Asian economies to join in, but China was excluded. With the TPP platform and “reindustrialization,” “double export”and other measures, the United States has seized the initiative, which made China face the challenge of being marginalized in the high–end manufacturing network in the Asia–Pacific region.
Potential impacts of TPP on feasibility and constructional path of China-Japan-South Korea FTA: study based on GTAP model
Journal of International Trade,2015,No. 11
【Abstract】 Based on the simulation results of the GTAP model, this paper first examines what are the feasible paths to lead to the multilateral free trade (MFT) between China, Japan and South Korea, and then considers TPP's potential impacts on the feasible paths of China-Japan–South Korea FTA in a dynamic game model. The main conclusions are as follows: the establishment of TPP will exert negative influences on China's economy, and the negative influence will expand with the increase of TPP numbers. Although TPP will have some impacts on the feasible paths of China-Japan–South Korea FTA, it will only restrict the paths, not block them. Whether TPP is established smoothly or not, China, Japan and South Korea can always achieve multilateral free trade through hub-and-spoke free trade agreements.
Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP): geopolitical influence, the Sino-US game and China's options
Northeast Asia Forum,2016,Vol 25,No. 02
【Abstract】 After several years of hard negotiations, the TPP was finally reached in 2015. The reach of the TPP will have a significant geo-influence in the Asia Pacific region, including the geopolitical and geo-economic influence. The reach of the TPP has different influences for China and the US. The TPP is of great significance to the US, but the actual negative impact on China is relatively limited. For the TPP competition arising from regional and international economic rules, China should give necessary attention, because it reflects the new development trend of the US strategy. Although the TPP has no great impact on China, China should take various measures to be on guard against and deal with the TPP. These measures should not only be based on dealing with the TPP itself, but also should focus on enhancing China's international economic competitiveness and influence via the TPP and help China build a new pattern of all-round and high-level opening up.
The challenges of TPP to Chinese SOEs’ supervision systems and related legal reforms in China — on the perspective of referencing international competition neutrality legislation
Journal of International Trade,2016,No. 05
【Abstract】 State-owned enterprises (SOEs) always enjoy a variety of competitive advantages in the market because of their special form of ownership. In order to limit the competitive advantages acquired from governments by SOEs, some countries and international organizations utilized competition neutrality rules to ensure fair competition between public and private sector enterprises. The Trans- Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) signed recently emphasized on competitive neutrality rules as new international trade and investment guidelines and emphasizes the government’s neutral status/role. These international regulations greatly obstructed competition of Chinese SOEs in the international market. In order to adapt to the new international competitive environment, China should take the competition neutrality rules and TPP articles of SOEs for reference. Finally, the scope of the Competitive (or commercial) SOEs will be defined. Therefore, these Competitive (or commercial) SOEs should comply with the same competition rules with private enterprises, and the Chinese government should ensure regulatory neutrality in the domestic market and promote competitiveness of SOEs in the international market.
International Economic Review,2016,No. 01
【Abstract】 TPP finally reached a deal after five-years intensive negotiations. It embodies fundamental concepts of trade rules, namely, free trade, fair trade, trade in value chains, value in trade, security trade and inclusive trade. As a comprehensive, far-reaching, high-standard, innovative and balanced free trade agreement, it provides a template and benchmark for 21st-century trade rules based on global value chains and will destine to have a crucial impact on the global trade governance in the future. Considering the fact that China is excluded to join the agreement, TPP will impose a challenge and potential threat to China through trade diversion effect, rule of origin effect, investment competition effect, rule competition and spillover effect. To minimize the negative effect of TPP, China should take necessary warning and hedging measures in the short run. In the long run, the goal of the TPP agreement and most part of its disciplines seem to be consistent with China’s reform agenda which aims to establish a new system for open economy. It will offer China a valuable reference for shaping market-oriented, internationalized, rule-based business environment and government regulations.
International Economic Review,2016,No. 01
【Abstract】 The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, or TPP, attempts to upgrade international trade system, and based itself on the fair trade principle. TPP includes series of rules that help to locate its member economies in the global industrial chain, while at the same time facilitate the establishment of operational organization and disputes settlement mechanism. This paper presents analysis that policy coordination and synchronization among the member countries of TPP will lead to the change of the foundation of international trade from comparative advantage to absolute advantage. As a result, world trade volume will decline. The findings show that change contradicts not only the mainstream economic principles, but also the world economic order centered around the US. The contradictions conflict US re-balancing efforts as well as the multi-coordination mechanism led by the US after WWII. The authors conclude that TPP’s effects on the global industrial chain will probably depart from its goals.
International Economic Review,2016,No. 01
【Abstract】 This paper studies the full text of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) published on November 5 of 2015, and makes systematic analysis from the perspective of breadth, depth and new concept. First, through making comparison with FTAs signed by the United States with economies in the Asia-Pacific region, and with FTAs signed by other economies in the region, this paper analyzes the extension of TPP text’s chapters. Second, this paper discusses the classification methods of TPP chapters, and classifies the TPP chapters as four categories: deepening traditional topics, deeper integration, new topics, and other institutional topics. Besides, this part discusses the depth of TPP issues. Thirdly, this paper summarizes four new concepts based on text analysis: generalize US idea on international trade and investment rules, respond to the demand for changes of global value chains on global trade governance, consider the interests of multinational corporations and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), give priority to US interests while taking into account the other members’ interests. Finally, this paper analyzes the comprehensive impact of TPP rules on China and give suggestions about China’s countermeasures.
Contemporary Economy of Japan,2017,Vol 36,No. 04
【Abstract】 After the Basic Policy on Comprehensive Economic Partnerships was introduced, Japan’s FTA strategic focus shifted from East Asia to the Asia-Pacific region and put the TPP negotiations on the most important position. Overcoming domestic opposition from specific interest groups, and through the efforts of more than three years, the Japanese cabinet meeting approved the TPP on January 20, 2017. Trump took office as President of the U.S. and signed an executive order to withdraw from TPP, which has a great impact on Japan in terms of achieving the goal of its FTA strategy, priority in promoting FTA strategy, and increasing the FTA coverage. Japan will actively promote the entry into force of TPP after the U.S. withdrew from it, seek to dominate the RCEP, accelerate a Japanese-EU FTA, promote a high-level China-Japan-South Korea FTA, and negatively deal with a Japan-U.S. FTA. As the world’s third largest economy, Japan is one of the most important trade and investment partners for China. Its FTA strategic adjustment and development will have corresponding impacts on China. China needs to try to complete RCEP negotiations as soon as possible, actively promote a China-Japan-South Korea FTA, and China-U.S. and China-Europe investment agreements, and sign FTAs with the countries along the Belt and Road to build a high-standard FTA network.
Impact of TPP on export of China’s mechanical and electrical products: an assessment based on GTAP-CGE Model
Journal of International Trade,2016,No. 09
【Abstract】 This paper assesses the potential influences of TPP on China’s mechanical and electrical exports. By adopting Export Similarity Index to analyze export competitive relationship among China and TPP members’ mechanical and electrical products, four hypothesizes are proposed. Then based on GTAP– CGE model and three different situations: TPP, South Korea as a member of TPP, China is also a member of TPP, this paper calculates China’s mechanical and electrical products’ export respectively. Results show that: (1) China’s mechanical and electrical exports will suffer from a negative shock, mainly category HS72 & HS90. And as a result of trade diversion, the export will grow for Japan’s case. (2) If South Korea becomes a member of TPP, trade diversion effect will spread to South Korea, especially in category HS90. (3) If China is also a member of TPP, China will enjoy enormous export growth, and export to the U.S. will increase the most. The main reason of above results is the severe competition among China, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. regarding exports of mechanical and electrical products.
An analysis of reasons for the Abe administration to advance TPP ratification: in the context of the US withdrawal from TPP
Contemporary Economy of Japan,2017,Vol 36,No. 04
【Abstract】 There are several reasons for the Abe administration to advance the National Diet to ratify Trans-Pacific Partnership in the context of plausible failure of Trans-Pacific Partnership because of Trump’ s announcement of the US withdrawal from the agreement, including cherishing the great record, keeping words to interest groups in the financial community, unwilling to give up the momentum of economic reform for helping shot out the third arrow of Abenomics, expecting return of the US and preparing for adopting alternative free trade agreements, such as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Trans-Pacific Partnership without the US and bilateral free trade agreements. Abe’s endeavor for saving Trans-Pacific Partnership has laid a solid foundation for extension of his career as Prime Minister.
An analysis on the agricultural reform driven by Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement under the Abe administration
Japanese Studies,2018,No. 01
【Abstract】 Japan has promised to further open its agricultural market on the basis of the past Economic Partnership Agreement framework. Even for the five most sensitive agricultural products, Japan has shown an open and flexible attitude in increasing quotas or reducing tariffs. Facing the coming harsh international agricultural trade environment, since the start of TPP negotiations, the Abe administration has started to push forward the agricultural reform. After the TPP was signed, Japan has further promulgated the “measures for strengthening agricultural competitiveness” in order to intensify the reform efforts. The reform measures cover a wide range including cropland, farmers’ income and Japan Agricultural Cooperatives as three axes. The Abe administration attempts to reform the rigid and inflexible system with the TPP mechanism. However, it remains to be seen whether the reforms are effective in renovating Japan’s agriculture.
China Industrial Economics,2016,No. 10
【Abstract】 Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiation had already reached an agreement, a high standard regional trade agreement who aims to construct international economics and trade new rules will take effect soon. China is an important and big economic and trade country in Asia-Pacific region but is not in TPP, then the main topic will be how TPP influence China economy. This paper constructed a 29-country (or region) global general equilibrium model,introduced trade cost and disposed into tariff and non-tariff, and added a monetary supply structure to endogenously determine trade imbalance. We used 2013 as our benchmark data year to calibrate model and simulate the TPP influence under different scenarios. The simulation results find that present 12-country TPP will negatively influence China but the effects are weak. As more countries take part in TPP in the future, negative effects to China will further decrease. But if TPP forms a new international economics and trade rule, it will give China more negative shock. Meanwhile, the joint effects of TPP and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership(TTIP) will generate more negative influence to China. In general, TPP's influences to China are limited, and cannot restrain China.
Journal of Finance and Economics,2018,Vol 44,No. 08
【Abstract】 TPP is an important part of Asia-Pacific strategies of the Obama Government. However, with the new President Trump taking office in the White House, the progress of TPP has met certain hindrance. Though Trump withdrew the United States from the TPP, it does not mean that the TPP is completely aborted and traditional allies still negotiate on the signing of the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). How will the adjustment of the TPP policy by the United States affect China? What economic benefits will the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that China put forward to counter potential impacts of the TPP bring to the countries along the Belt and Road? Can the BRI become an effective measure for China to counter the TPP? Further, what kinds of differentiated industrial impacts will the TPP and the BRI bring to China and what kinds of challenges and opportunities? Analyses and discussions of these questions will be very helpful of enriching China’s strategies to counter the TPP as well as accelerating the progress of the BRI. With a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and the latest database GTAP 9.0, this paper quantitatively evaluates the economic effects of the TPP and the BRI in terms of the actual GDP, the social welfare and the import and export trade. The study sets six policy scenarios centering on whether the U.S. should be back to the TPP and how will China push forward the BRI to selectively analyze benefits and losses of China under different macro-economic effects. The main conclusions of the paper are as follows. (1) Judging from actual GDP and residents’ welfare, China suffers from such strategy no matter the U.S. returns to the TPP or not. In the scenario of GPTPP, the actual GDP of China decreases by 0.019% and the residents’ welfare level decreases by USD 4.111 billion. (2) Promotion of the BRI is able to effectively alleviate the negative impacts of the TPP on Chinese economy: when the BRI and the TPP both exist, the actual GDP of China increases by 0.055% and the residents’ welfare level increases by USD 11.465 billion. (3) From the perspective of unimpeded trade, promotion of the BRI can stimulate outputs of energy-intensive industries of China, especially the textile and garment industry, the steel and metal industry and the chemical industry, which is helpful to alleviate the problem of overcapacity in the energy-intensive industries of China.(4) Implementation of the BRI has strong negative impacts on South Korea, but if South Korea could participate in the BRI, significance improvement can be realized in its economic growth and residents’ welfare level. The marginal contributions of this paper can be elaborated from three aspects. First, this paper introduces both the TPP and the BRI to comparatively analyze international economic effects of different regional economic cooperation modes, which can provide a valuable technical reference for China to promote the BRI in the context of the TPP. Second, this paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the withdrawal of the U.S. from the TPP, and the impact of the CPTPP on China is also discussed, which will be useful for China to adopt reasonable measures to cope with the CPTPP. Third, the impacts of the TPP on different countries or areas along the Belt and Road are quantitatively evaluated to reveal benefits and losses of these countries or areas under different the TPP strategies, which is helpful in promoting those countries to participate in the BRI to cope with the negative impacts of the TPP.
Contemporary Economy of Japan,2019,Vol 38,No. 04
【Abstract】 The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership is part of the mega-Free Trade Agreements pursued by the Abe administration, and can help the administration maintain its long-term stability and bequeath a political legacy. Japan has five motives for leading Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, namely, maintaining its modest economic recovery, persuading the United States to return to Trans-Pacific Partnership, strengthening its relations with other member states, implementing its Free Trade Agreement/Economic Partnership Agreement strategy and getting a say in economic and trade affairs. In response to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership dominated by Japan, China should evaluate the likelihood of America returning to TPP, accelerate Free Trade Agreement negotiations by concluding the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement as soon as possible, pay close attention to the U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, adopt countermeasures against their deal and establish a mechanism for dynamic assessment and monitoring.
International Economic Review,2019,No. 01
【Abstract】 The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), finally signed on March 8, 2018, entered into force on December 30, 2018. The truncated CPTPP, compared with the TPP, has smaller economic scale and less strategic impact. However, in terms of international economic and trade rules, it still represents the highest standard of the new-generation of trade agreements and leads the international economic and trade rules in the 21st century. Moreover, the US will still potentially return to the agreement in the future. The signing of the CPTPP will have some impact on the global trade landscape and strategic layout. Its importance has increased markedly in particular against the backdrop of the Sino-US economic and trade frictions, the trend of joint formulation of economic and trade rules by the US, Europe, and Japan, and the WTO reform. By text analysis, this paper compared and interpreted the CPTPP and the TPP texts published by the member states. It also analyzed the impact of the CPTPP on the world and Chinese economies from the perspectives of economy, strategy, and rules before analyzing China’s difficulty in accepting the CPTPP and putting forward relevant policy suggestions.
International Economic Review,2016,No. 02
【Abstract】 The key research question of this paper is that how long it will take if China decides to apply for joining TPP. After analyzing the accession procedure, requirements of TPP, and China’s possible commitments, this paper concludes that it will take more than 10 years for China to join TPP. Some implications of this conclusion also are discussed.
Forging an inclusive international economic governance system: from TPP to China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Northeast Asia Forum,2016,Vol 25,No. 02
【Abstract】 Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation has entered into a new stage when coexistence and competition of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership jeopardize the regional integrity of Asia-Pacific. In order to bridge the institutional division in regional frameworks, to relieve the Spaghetti bowl effect and to decrease trade cost, importance needs to be attached to a series of inclusive arrangements including a China-US bilateral investment treaty, an agreement for the Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific and global infrastructure cooperation framework under G20. In this way, an inclusive international governance system will become a new feature in China-US bilateral cooperation.