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Decomposition of the dynamic changes in poverty in China: 1991–2015

LUO Liangqing;PING Weiying

Management World,2020,Vol 36,No. 02

【Abstract】 Against the problems in the existing research on the decomposition of poverty changes, this paper took into consideration the impact of population factor in decomposing poverty changes, systematically examined the comprehensive effect of economic growth, inequality, and population on poverty changes, analyzed the impact of China’s urbanization process on urban and rural poverty, and provided ground for formulating poverty reduction strategies based on local conditions. According to the decomposition results of poverty changes in all periods, China’s massive poverty reduction is closely related to the material foundation laid by economic growth. Inequality, as always the main factor worsening poverty, has led to decreasing share of poor population in economic growth. The slow-down of the population growth and the significant decrease of the poor population have effectively driven up average income and then produced a significantly positive effect on poverty reduction. The impact of population migration is different on urban and rural poverty changes, namely that its effect on the dropping of the rural poverty index is more significant, which indicates that urban development is indeed an important way to reduce rural poverty. However, with gradually eased impact of population migration on rural poverty over time, the proposal and implementation of rural revitalization strategy are necessary and timely. In addition, since 2011, the overall drop in the poverty gap index has slowed down, which suggests that with the absolute poverty effectively resolved, the remaining poor people are getting poorer comparatively and it is more difficult to reduce poverty; namely, the poor class has a trend of rigidity, which requires more targeted assistance measures.

Analysis of the vulnerability to poverty and differentiated poverty alleviation policy in rural China under the conditions of sustainable development

LI Zeyu;ZHAO Weixuan;CHEN Xinhua;ZHAO Chunyan;WANG Yanping

Ecological Economy,2020,Vol 36,No. 01

【Abstract】 Achieving sustainable development is an important issue in China’s rural areas at present and in the future. Should the government adopt differentiated poverty alleviation policies according to the vulnerability of different regions? This paper uses vulnerability as an expected poverty method to measure the family’s vulnerability to poverty in rural China. It points out that the vulnerability to poverty varies with the areas; the poor families and the vulnerable families are highly related, but the relation falls with the rising of the poverty line; the families’ vulnerability and the poverty rate increase with higher poverty line, but the vulnerability increases faster; regardless of the level of the poverty line, the vulnerability to poverty increases at first and then goes down with the age of the householder; and the vulnerability increases rapidly with the increasing family size, and the female-headed households will face the bigger vulnerability than the male-headed ones. The suggestions are as follows. Vulnerability to poverty needs to be taken into consideration when anti-poverty policies are formulated. Differentiated poverty alleviation policies must be adopted according to the vulnerability of different areas, and those with high vulnerability must be paid much more attention to. In addition, poverty alleviation policies must vary from family to family.

Qualitative research on the endogenous power mechanism for poverty elimination

FU Anguo;ZHANG Zaisheng;ZHENG Jianhong;YUE Tong;LIN Zhaohong;WU Na;HUANG Xiting

Acta Psychologica Sinica,2020,Vol 52,No. 01

【Abstract】 Poverty remains one of the most pressing and vexing issues facing the world today. Although progress has been made in alleviating poverty in China, more efforts are needed to manage the intractable generations that have been affected by poverty. Endogenous power is the core psychological resource for low-income individuals to move out of poverty. However, there lacks a research framework for the endogenous power of poverty elimination in the Chinese context, which may result in a scarcity of relevant empirical research and the neglect of psychological factors in the formulation of poverty alleviation policies. This study deploys qualitative research methods to explore the psychological structure and key influencing factors of endogenous power of generations of low-income individuals with a goal of providing proposals on psychologically targeted poverty alleviation. The researchers utilized an intensity sampling method to obtain study participants, and grounded theory, based on in-depth interviews, was adopted as research methodology. Participants comprised individuals who had successfully (seven people) or unsuccessfully (ten people) pulled themselves out of poverty as well as poverty alleviation cadres (four cadres) from a deeply impoverished village of Hainan Island. This study attempts to construct an integral endogenous power depletion model for intergenerational poverty from the perspectives of endogenous power for poverty elimination and the integration of endogenous and exogenous driving forces. The study followed the standard procedure of grounded theory, and the data were analyzed with Nvivo 11.0. Based on grounded theory, preliminary analysis, generic analysis, and theoretical construction of the collected data were conducted. Inspections of the participants and non-participants were used to verify the validity of the research results. The findings of the study fall into three categories. First, the “three-factor onion model” with negative values, negative self-concept, and behavioral tendencies for passive anti-poverty as the core factors was found to be the endogenous driving force of generations of low-income individuals. Second, perceived control loss as a psychosocial driving force is an important cause of the lack of endogenous power among those poverty-stricken people for generations, and the combination of insufficient market rationality and campaign-style poverty alleviation are external factors causing perceived control loss. Third, under the influence of the construction of inner capacities, parenting capabilities become an important internal driving force, as they take an intermediate role in promoting endogenous powers of their offspring and help cultivate positive psychological resources for the family. This paper attempts to place the internal psychological factors and external key factors that lead to intergenerational poverty into a holistic research framework. Although some enlightening views have been obtained, the results are constrained by the complexity of the theme and the limitations of the data, and only a general exploration could be made. In the future, quantitative research methods may be adopted to verify the accuracy of the internal motivation depletion model for intergenerational poverty.

Impact of medical insurance on household consumption of farmers and herdsmen from the perspective of targeted poverty alleviation: based on household questionnaire survey data of 730 farmers and herdsmen in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

LI Ao;YANG Zhiyong;ZHAO Yuanfeng

Chinese Rural Economy,2020,No. 02

【Abstract】 Household consumption is an important indicator that reflects the poverty level and quality of life of farmers and herdsmen. They are influenced by a combination of factors, with medical insurance and poverty status being two important factors. On the foundation of summarizing the characteristics of poor and non-poor households, this paper used a limited information maximum likelihood estimation method to construct an econometric model and empirically analyzed the influence of medical insurance on the consumption of different farmers and herdsmen. The results showed that poverty restrained the medical consumption and food consumption of farmers and herdsmen, while medical insurance significantly improved the consumption confidence of farmers and herdsmen, stimulating their consumption and significantly improving the level of medical services received and quality of life. In the meantime, medical insurance had significant differences in their impact on the consumption expenditure for different types of farmers and herdsmen. The participation in medical insurance had a significant promoting effect on the medical consumption expenditure, the consumption expenditure of purchased food and other expenditures of poor households, It also has a significant impact on the promotion of material consumption expenditure of non-poor households.

Post-2020 rural urban integrative poverty reduction strategy: development status, evolution, new vision and key areas

CHEN Kevin ;BI Jieying ;WU Guobao ;HE Xiaojun ;WANGZi Meiyi

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 01

【Abstract】 This article aimed to describe the characteristics and trends of urban and rural poverty in China, to clarify the gaps faced by China’s poverty reduction, to present the changes and challenges of the poverty alleviation policy, and to identify the needs for a new vision of China’s post-2020 poverty reduction. A rural urban integrative poverty reduction strategy was then proposed with five key strategic issues being identified to support the development of such strategy. The factors such as social and economic transformation, rapid urbanization process, and the change in population structure are influencing and will continue to influence China’s poverty reduction dynamics. China’s population below the poverty line has continuously decreased, but multidimensional poverty incidence and consumption poverty incidence are much higher than those being measured by income poverty. Education and health are two most deprived dimensions in both rural and urban areas. Migrant workers from rural areas are likely to form the major part of urban poverty while women, children and the elderly groups are particularly vulnerable. China currently applies a binary governance mode for urban-rural poverty segmentation instead of a uniform national poverty governance system. The poverty reduction policies and expenditures vary significantly between rural and urban areas. With an anticipated rise of the urbanization, the aging population, migrant workers, and new poverty standard, a new poverty group is likely to emerge and requires special attention from policymakers. This article proposes a new vision for post-2020 rural urban integrative poverty alleviation in China. In particular, during 2020 and 2035, China will need to establish a rural urban integrative poverty governance structure, with the equalization of urban and rural public services as the strategic direction. To formulate the feasible poverty strategy, five key issues are suggested, including providing a more accurate prediction of socio-economic development conditions, establishing new poverty standards, unifying poverty governance system nation-wide, developing a pro-poor social protection system, as well as fiscal and financial reform and innovation to ensure the poverty reduction outcome.

Impact of Internet use on family life consumption of farmers in western poverty-stricken areas: an analysis based on household survey of 1735 farmers in Gansu Province

ZHANG Yongli;XU Lamei

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 02

【Abstract】 Based on survey data collected from 1735 farmers in 15 poverty-stricken villages in Gansu Province in 2017, this article uses a propensity score matching method to examine the impact of Internet use on family life consumption of poor households in western China. The results show that Internet use can help to improve the consumption level and optimize the consumption structure of rural households, especially to reduce the education cost and increase the educational expenditure of rural households. Internet use promotes the consumption level of poor households more than that of non-poor households, thus helping to narrow the gap within rural areas. Internet use helps to reduce the transaction costs of farmers in poor areas in the West, broaden consumption channels, and optimize market environment. Therefore, improving the level of information infrastructure construction in the poverty-stricken areas in western China, continuing to implement the relevant policies of Internet Plus rural areas and popularizing Internet use are important means to implement the strategy of targeted poverty alleviation and rural revitalization and to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas.

Is the poverty alleviation more targeted in rural areas?—An empirical research based on CFPS data

MA Xiaoyong;WU Xiao

Public Finance Research,2019,No. 01

【Abstract】 With the gradual decline of incidence of poverty, the distribution of poverty-stricken population in China is characterized by decentralization. The traditional extensive poverty alleviation model has failed to meet the objective needs of current poverty management. In 2014, Chinese government put forward the “targeted poverty alleviation” strategy so as to enable poverty alleviation work to better target rural families really caught in difficulty, which marks that China’s poverty alleviation work has entered a new historical stage. Using the micro data of the CFPS (2014 and 2016),this paper carries out an empirical research on the targeted feature of poverty alleviation, and draws the following conclusions. (1) Poor peasant households do get more government subsidies, and on the whole, poverty alleviation is targeted in China. (2) The economic level of villages and the social capital of peasant households have significant impacts on the government subsidies received by peasant households, which shows that the regional poverty alleviation model and social capital play a role in hindering the targeted feature of poverty alleviation. (3) After the targeted poverty alleviation strategy was implemented, the targeted feature of poverty alleviation in rural areas has been enhanced, but it is not robust from a statistical perspective.

Improvement effect of China’s rural inclusive financial development on the multidimensional poverty of working-age population in rural areas

YANG Yanlin;FU Chenyu

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 03

【Abstract】 Based on survey data from China Family Panel Studies and relevant statistic data collected from 21 provinces in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016, this paper analyses the improvement effect of inclusive financial development on the multidimensional poverty of working-age population in rural China. The results show that China’s rural inclusive financial development can directly improve the multidimensional poverty of the rural working-age population by increasing the availability of financial products and services. However, this effect is heterogeneous for the rural working-age population with different levels of poverty intensity. Poverty situation of rural working-age population with low poverty intensity (one-dimensional poverty and two-dimensional poverty) can be significantly improved, but there is no significant effect on the poverty situation of rural working-age population with high poverty intensity (three-dimensional poverty and above). Moreover, China’s rural inclusive financial development can indirectly improve the multidimensional poverty of the rural working-age population by raising their income. However, the effects on different dimensions of poverty are also different. It can significantly improve the poverty situation of the rural working-age population in the dimensions of income, education and employment, but concerning the health and insurance dimensions, no significant improvement in their poverty situation can be found. Therefore, the study proposes that the development of rural inclusive finance is an effective way to achieve the strategic goal of poverty alleviation in rural areas of China. It is necessary to further promote the development of rural inclusive finance, improve its effect on the multidimensional poverty of rural working-age population, and guide rural inclusive finance to play a role in targeted poverty alleviation.

Determinants and anti-poverty strategies for farmers to get rid of poverty against the background of targeted poverty alleviation

YANG Junhua;LIU Can

The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2019,Vol 36,No. 07

【Abstract】 Research objectives: determinants of farmers’ poverty alleviation and anti-poverty strategies. Research methods: the above problems are studied using a fixed effect measurement model and a regression decomposition method. Research findings: the results show that the incidence of rural poverty under different poverty standards show a different trend. Household savings, agricultural support policies, social security, communication facilities and family education expenditures have a comprehensive impact on farmers’ poverty alleviation. Human capital, cultivated land and forest land, labor input in agricultural operations, labor input in non-agricultural operations and social network exert a structural impact on farmers’ poverty alleviation. The contribution rate of all factors to farmers’ poverty alleviation reaches 76.25%. Research innovations: from the perspective of rate of return and contribution rate, this paper analyzes the determinants, paths and contributions of farmers’ poverty alleviation. Research value: this paper provides quantitative analysis of the government’s efforts to formulate more effective rural anti-poverty policies and provides reliable empirical data for farmers’ poverty alleviation.

Poverty-alleviating microcredit, farmer income, and anti-poverty performance

YAN Jie;QIANG Guoling;LIU Qingjuan

Financial Economics Research,2019,Vol 34,No. 04

【Abstract】 To resolve funding difficulties related to developing poor households and alleviating poverty, China’s State Council Office for Poverty Alleviation and other relevant departments introduced preferential microcredit policies aimed at registered impoverished households. Using micro data for the period 2013 to 2018 on poverty-alleviating microcredit, we investigate whether this type of microcredit reduces poverty and increases income. As such, we employ the propensity score matching method and OLS regression model to analyze the effects of microcredit on the income growth of poor households. The results show that such microcredit does increase the income of poor households, particularly for women and impoverished households that need urgent funding. However, over time, the marginal effect of poverty-alleviating microcredit on the income growth of poor households weakens; thus, the poverty-eradicating effect of such microcredit is limited. Therefore, the supporting mechanism needs consistent improvement in terms of establishing professional farmer cooperatives, implementing agricultural insurance, and improving farmers’ skills, among others. Such a mechanism will boost the efficiency of poverty-alleviating microcredit, increase the income of poor households, and achieve the goal of a prosperous society.

Does participation in e-commerce increase rural households’ sense of economic gain: the difference between poor households and non-poor households


Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 07

【Abstract】 The sense of economic gain of e-commerce participants is an important dimension to evaluate the inclusiveness of e-commerce. Based on the data collected from 6242 rural households in the 2017 summer survey conducted by China Institute for Rural Studies, Tsinghua University, this paper used the propensity score matching method to evaluate the impact of e-commerce participation on rural households’ sense of economic gain, and compared the results between poor households and non-poor households. Specifically, households’ self-assessment of their income level in the village is used to measure the horizontally-realistic sense of economic gain, and the expectation of household income in 2018 as compared to 2017 is used to measure the longitudinally-expected sense of economic gain. The results show that participation in e-commerce exerts a significantly positive influence on both types of sense of economic gain. However, differences exist between poor households and non-poor households. With respect to the horizontally-realistic sense of economic gain, e-commerce participation has a greater influence on poor households than non-poor ones, while with respect to the longitudinally-expected sense of economic gain, e-commerce participation hardly has any positive influence on poor households. The implication is that, anti-poverty measures through e-commerce development may confront a general contradiction between strong policy promotion and weak endogenous motivation in the process of poverty alleviation. More investigations and analyses are in need to explore the horizontally-realistic sense of economic gain and its sustainability among poor households. Meanwhile, how to solve the predicament of poor households’ development expectations and enhance their sense of economic gain in various anti-poverty measures, including e-commerce, remains a critical issue.

Measurement of China’s fiscal redistribution and poverty reduction effects

LU Hongyou;DU Yixuan

Economic Research Journal,2019,Vol 54,No. 02

【Abstract】 The gap of initial income distribution has been widening since the market-oriented reform in China. Meanwhile, in the process of fiscal redistribution, the long-term implementation of the tax system based on goods and service tax has resulted in inequality in the incidence of tax burden; the long-term implementation of the public service provision and sharing system based on the identity characteristics has led to inequality in benefit incidence of public expenditures. The “double inequality in incidence” of the initial distribution of the market and the fiscal redistribution add up to each other, and the income distribution gap of Chinese residents is now characterized by solidification, institutionalization and intergenerational transmission. As China is committed to practicing the new concept of shared development, measuring whether and how current fiscal redistribution system alleviates the income distribution gap and poverty is pivotal to improving it. This paper extended the traditional method of analyzing financial redistribution system by integrating the income and expenditure of finance into a unified research framework. We used household survey data from 2012 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS2012) and China Input and Output Tables in 2012 to construct residents’ income accounting account. Using standard financial analysis, we calculated the net fiscal income of Chinese residents and comprehensively measured the redistribution effect and poverty-reducing effect of China’s public finance with both “anonymous” and “non-anonymous” measures. The results show that China’s overall fiscal redistribution has a weak positive moderating effect on the primary distribution of the residents’ income, and the fiscal redistribution reduces the Gini coefficient by 4.06%. Specifically, the marginal contributions of basic social insurance payment, public service, transfer payments and the direct taxes are 2.48%, 2.34%, 1.75%, and 1.19%, respectively, while the marginal contribution of indirect taxes is −1.57%, indicating that it plays a reverse regulatory role. China’s fiscal system has a significant poverty-reducing effect, and fiscal redistribution has reduced the poverty span, poverty depth and poverty intensity of the whole country by more than 20%. Specifically, transfer payments, public service and basic social insurance are poor-relieving, but the indirect taxes are poor-depriving. On average, net fiscal beneficiary account for a larger proportion among the poor, while net fiscal payers are more among the rich, suggesting that the fiscal redistribution of China is conducive to the formation of an olive-shaped social structure. Although China’s fiscal redistribution brings some wealth reduction, its fiscal gain is more significant. Overall, the weak-progressive fiscal redistribution system of China and its adverse adjusting tools are contrary to the principles of fair redistribution and shareable development. Based on the above results, this paper believes that the key to realizing shareable development is to speed up the establishment of a modern fiscal system with a core of “two fair incidences.” Therefore, based on the principle of promoting shared development, we adjusted the system design of personal income tax, value-added tax, transfer payments, public service, and social insurance using a scenario analysis, and provided a path for reconstructing an accurate fiscal system. There are four contributions of this paper. (1) We integrated direct taxes, indirect taxes, transfer payments, public services and basic social insurance into a unified analytical framework and comprehensively measured the redistribution effect and poverty reduction effect of Chinese fiscal system starting from the connotation of shared development. (2) We used the micro-data of household survey from CFPS2012 to made full use of its abundant household information. (3) We used standard financial destination analysis method to make up for the limitations of the general equilibrium model, such as the loss of heterogeneous information, the inconsistency between model setting and micro foundation, and the unsuitability for short-term evaluation. (4) We combined both anonymous measures and non-anonymous evaluation methods.

The banking competition and deepening of financial inclusion in rural China: a stratified analysis between poor and non-poor counties

WANG Xue;HE Guangwen

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 04

【Abstract】 Whether the existing banking institutional system in China’s counties, especially in poor counties, can play a role in developing inclusive financial services not only is a major issue concerning the direction of bank-dominated rural financial system, but also a core issue in the implementation of China’s inclusive financial development strategy. Based on the distribution data of bank branches in 1927 counties from 2010 to 2017, this paper investigated the profound changes of banking market structure in poor and non-poor counties since the relaxation of banking access policy in rural areas in 2006. It examined the impact of banking competition in poor and non-poor counties on promoting deepening of inclusive financial services by using a two-way fixed effects model and an instrumental variable method. It further investigated the heterogeneous effect of different types of banks. The main findings were as follows. Firstly, banks in counties have started to expanding branches, but the number of banking networks in poor counties was still significantly less than that in non-poor counties. Poor counties had far less village and township banks, joint-stock banks and other new-type ones than non-poor counties. Secondly, the county-level banking competition significantly promoted deepening of inclusive financial services, but the effect was weak in poor counties with imperfect financial infrastructures. Thirdly, rural commercial banks and village and township banks which were small-sized and rooted in poverty-stricken counties had strong inclusive financial service capabilities. Large state-owned commercial banks had not played a significant role in promoting deepening of inclusive financial services in neither poor counties nor non-poor ones. The above findings support continuous relaxation policies on the business expansion of banks and raise the issue of financial inequality between poor and non-poor counties. Meanwhile, the study also suggests taking advantage of small banks rooted in local areas and improving the financial infrastructure in poor counties

Evolutionary game analysis of ecological poverty alleviation strategies between local governments

ZHENG Shuyao;QU Chengti;LI Yaolei

Ecological Economy,2019,Vol 35,No. 10

【Abstract】 The article uses evolutionary game theory to construct an evolutionary game model of ecological poverty alleviation between neighboring local governments in the two situations without introducing the obligation mechanism and introducing the obligation mechanism. According to the replicator dynamics equation, the local government’s behavior evolution law and evolutionary stability strategy are obtained. The results show that the factors such as the existence of external effects do not affect the local government’s strategy selection of ecological poverty alleviation, the cost of ecological poverty alleviation, the positive benefit of active ecological poverty alleviation, the negative effect of passive ecological poverty alleviation, and the central government’s punishment for passive ecological poverty alleviation of local government, the weight coefficient of the ecological environment quality indicators in the evaluation of local government performance are the important factors that affect the local governments’ ecological poverty alleviation strategies. In the absence of an obligation mechanism, the local government will decide on the strategy of ecological poverty alleviation according to the cost-benefit analysis. In the condition of introducing the obligation mechanism, we can improve the enthusiasm of local government’s ecological poverty alleviation by reducing the cost of ecological poverty alleviation, increasing the punishment and improving the weight coefficient of the ecological environment quality indicators in government performance evaluation.

Trust dilemma, cooperation mechanisms and poverty alleviation by the rate of return on fixed assets: strategy and practice of a leading agricultural enterprise in the process of vertical disintegration

ZHANG Yanlong

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 10

【Abstract】 As an important part of poverty alleviation by industry, the model of poverty alleviation by the rate of return on fixed assets (RoFA poverty alleviation) has been widely conducted in many pilot regions. However, the lack of a stable cooperation mechanism between leading enterprises and cooperatives has become the main bottleneck for the development of this model. A series of cooperation mechanisms including three ones operated by Jiuxing enterprise has solved the trust dilemma. Based on the vertical disintegration process of the industrial organization, combined with the game analysis of trust dilemma, this article constructed cooperation mechanisms and conditions under the mode of “company + cooperatives + poverty-stricken households.” The analysis of the Jiuxing case shows that “third party participation + company supervision” (explicit contract mechanism), “repeated game + distribution of residual control” (relational contract mechanism) and “economic behavior embedded in the social network + reputation” (implicit social contract mechanism) are cooperation mechanisms to reduce the company’s trust dilemma, which can promote cooperation between the company and cooperative under the RoFA poverty alleviation model.

Financial literacy and urban poverty

SHAN Depeng

China Industrial Economics,2019,No. 04

【Abstract】 Anti-poverty policy after 2020 concerns studies on urban poverty in China. By using China Family Panel Studies, this paper investigates the relationship between financial literacy and urban poverty. The two-step IV-Probit model is used to deal with the endogeneity caused by reverse causality where the financial literacy of parents and the average financial literacy in the same community are set as the instrumental variables. The simultaneous equations model is used to solve the endogeneity caused by omitted variables. We also explore the mechanism of the poverty reduction effect of financial literacy. The study shows that financial literacy can reduce urban poverty significantly. It is financial knowledge but not simply an ability that can affect urban poverty. Due to the low level of financial literacy in China’s urban area, improving financial literacy through financial education can be very useful to reduce urban poverty. Financial literacy can have different effects on income poverty, asset poverty, and poverty vulnerability, which means that the households with more financial literacy not only are more likely to have a better income, but also can accumulate assets in the long run by allocating their financial assets more wisely. Low-level financial literacy can explain the fact that income increase may not achieve poverty reduction linearly. Financial education can be a complementary policy to the income increase policies and the poverty households near the poverty line can gain more than the deeply impoverished households. This paper shows a novel explanation for urban poverty, which can benefit the poverty reduction policy.

Poverty intergenerational transmission in the ethnic Yi: current situation and influencing factors


Chinese Journal of Population Science,2019,No. 03

【Abstract】 Yi people are mainly distributed in Tibetan-Yi-Corridor and Wumeng destitute areas. The characteristics of Yi poverty are wide in range, deep in degree, long-lasting and intergenerational transmitted. Intergenerational transmission of poverty is an extreme form of chronic poverty. Based on the data of Yi Chronic Poverty Questionnaire Survey in 2018, this paper analyzes the current situation, influence factors and mechanism of Yi ethnic group’s poverty intergenerational transmission. It is found that the incidence of poverty intergenerational transmission is very high in communities concentrated with Yi people. Human capital of two generations significantly affects the intergenerational transmission of poverty. The stock of human capital adversely affects the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Poverty of parents can transmit negative human and economic capital to their children, and these kinds of capital will form the children’s capital. Non-agricultural and part-time employment of the offspring can also increase the incidence of poverty intergenerational transmission.

Schooling and income increase of education development in China: evidence from the national compulsory education project in China’s poor areas

WANG Dehua;ZOU Jie;MAO Zhonggen

Economic Research Journal,2019,Vol 54,No. 09

【Abstract】 In 1992, the Chinese government set itself the goal of making nine-year compulsory education general by 2000. However, the development of education in China’s central and western regions faced a lack of funds and poor educational infrastructure. Therefore, the Chinese government implemented the national compulsory education project in poor areas in 1995, including 852 poverty-stricken counties in the central and western regions as project counties. The project aimed to support the operating conditions of primary and secondary schools through the central government’s special transfer payment policy. The project invested CNY 12.8 billion, accounting for about 2% of China’s GDP in 1995. More than 90% of the funds were used to build or expand school buildings, purchase teaching equipment, and improve teaching materials. The short-term effect of these supportive policies can be easily illustrated. There are significant increases in the school area per student, the compliance rates for teaching equipment, and the enrollment rates in primary and junior high schools in the project counties. However, there are no studies on the long-term effect on improving the human capital of the beneficiaries. The question of whether investing in basic educational hardware promotes the long-term development of school-age children is a controversial topic in the literature. Based on the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) data for 2013, using the DID method, we evaluated the effect of this project implemented in 12 central provincial areas between 1995 and 1997. Using the identification strategy of Duflo (2001) and other studies, we considered that individuals in the project counties were the treated group and those in the non-project counties were the control group. Individuals aged 2 to 6 in 1995 started their compulsory education after the project. Those aged 16 to 20 in 1995 had completed their compulsory education before the start of the project. These two cohorts were considered as the groups after and before the project, respectively. CHIP’s survey counties in 2013 included 19 project counties and 172 non-project counties, with approximately 5000 individuals. We found that the project achieves the goal of increasing schooling: the number of years of schooling for the beneficiary children increases significantly by about 0.7 years as adults. However, the effect of the project on increasing income is very limited, since the income of the beneficiary children does not increase with the increase in schooling. The econometric decomposition analysis reveals that although the project can improve the income of the beneficiary migrant workers, it does not significantly increase the likelihood of the beneficiary groups moving to cities as migrant workers. Limited by the late development of secondary and tertiary industries in poor counties, the beneficiaries who stay locally are significantly less likely to engage in non-farm occupations, and therefore, their income does not significantly increase. These results show that China’s poverty alleviation through education policy can effectively promote the level of education of the beneficiaries. However, to achieve the goal of increasing income while increasing schooling, it is also necessary to develop local secondary and tertiary industries and to guide people moving to cities as migrant workers. This paper has three contributions. First, based on the unique context of the project, this paper provides empirical evidence in China of the role of educational infrastructure in promoting human capital. Compared with the INPRES project in Indonesia (Duflo, 2001) and the Rosenwald project in the United States (Aaronson and Mazumder, 2011), the project counties of the national compulsory education project are clearer and the construction of educational infrastructure is not associated with improved accessibility to education. Therefore, this project is more appropriate for evaluating whether investing in educational hardware has long-term benefits for the development of children. Second, this paper evaluated the performance of China’s major fiscal expenditure and major special transfer payment projects from the micro perspective. Finally, the findings of this paper provide useful suggestions for alleviating poverty in China through education policy.

Evaluation of the economic growth effect and policy effectiveness of pilot zones for the reform of poverty alleviation

ZHANG Guojian;TONG Menghua;LI Hui;CHEN Fei

China Industrial Economics,2019,No. 08

【Abstract】 The establishment of pilot zones for the reform of poverty alleviation (hereinafter referred to as Zones or Zone) is a new measure of poverty alleviation against the new background in the new era. In this paper, the project of Liaoning Province Zone is regarded as a natural experiment. Based on the county-level panel data from 2002 to 2016, the difference-in-differences method is adopted to identify the causal effect of the Zones on regional economic development and the effectiveness of poverty alleviation measures. The study found that the implementation of the policy significantly promoted the development of the county-level economy, making the treatment group about 16% higher than the control group. This conclusion still holds in a variety of identification hypothesis tests and robustness tests. Further analysis shows that this policy has a positive spillover effect on neighboring areas, while the policy effect in non-ethnic minority areas is stronger than that in ethnic minority areas. At the same time, the greater the financial dependence of local governments is, the better the economic growth effect brought by policies is. However, due to the differences in the economic base, factor endowment structure, geographical and administrative characteristics, the policy effect in different districts and counties is heterogeneous. In addition, the establishment of the Zones has an indirect impact on local economic performance mainly through industrial poverty alleviation, financial poverty alleviation, and the improvement of per capita net income of rural residents. More importantly, the policy has basically achieved the set goal through targeted poverty alleviation measures, but still needs to improve the level of local human capital, promote economic contact and market integration between districts and counties, and reduce administrative barriers. The results of this study further emphasize the importance of implementing the policies of the Zones and the targeted poverty alleviation and targeted policies for people at different times and places, so as to continuously improve the existing poverty alleviation strategy and policy system in China.

Performance comparison between fiscal poverty alleviation and financial poverty alleviation in the period of targeted poverty alleviation: from the perspective of heterogeneity of poverty alleviation and multidimensional poverty

WU Benjian;GE Yuhang;MA Jiujie

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 07

【Abstract】 The scarcity of funds is the core feature of poor households. Fiscal poverty alleviation and financial poverty alleviation, as two main approaches of providing funds for poor households, are widely used in poverty reduction in various countries. This paper compared the poverty reduction performances of fiscal poverty alleviation and financial poverty alleviation theoretically from the perspective of heterogeneity of poverty alleviation and multidimensional poverty, and proposed a number of hypotheses. It used a quantile regression, an ordered Probit model and a Tobit model to validate the hypotheses with data from 11,228 poor households whose archives had been created. The study found that both fiscal poverty alleviation policies and financial poverty alleviation policies could significantly increase the future incomes of poor households. In addition, in the period of targeted poverty alleviation, no matter public financial investment was taken into account or not, the effect of fiscal poverty alleviation on increasing the incomes of poor households was significantly better than that of financial poverty alleviation. The effect was heterogeneous, depending on the target of poverty alleviation. Fiscal poverty alleviation was conducive to increasing incomes of marginal poor households in the short term, while financial poverty alleviation was conducive to increasing the incomes of profound poor households and had a long-term effect. Financial poverty alleviation could significantly improve poor households’ multidimensional poverty situation, while fiscal poverty alleviation could deteriorate it. Fiscal poverty alleviation could enhance the multidimensional poverty alleviation effect that was generated by financial poverty alleviation, and financial poverty alleviation could also restrain the deterioration of multidimensional poverty which was caused by fiscal poverty alleviation.

Where is the way for China to reduce poverty for a long time: prospects for poverty reduction strategies after the completion of poverty alleviation in 2020

HUANG Zhengxue;GAO Guoli;TENG Fei;PAN Biao;SONG Jianjun;LI Aimin

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 09

【Abstract】 Poverty reduction is an eternal theme in the process of modernization in various countries. After 2020, the absolute poverty under China’s current standards will be basically eliminated, and the phased goal of poverty alleviation will be achieved. However, this does not mean the end of poverty. Sustainable poverty reduction still faces new difficulties and challenges. This article holds that there will be five changes in poverty reduction after 2020: the target of poverty reduction will be shifted to the establishment of a high-quality standard system; the direction of poverty reduction will be shifted to the consideration of rural poverty and urban poverty; the focus of poverty reduction will be shifted to the prevention of returning to poverty in such deep poverty-stricken areas as three regions and three prefectures; the driving force of poverty reduction will be shifted to paying equal attention to both external assistance and endogenous development; and fiscal shifts to poverty reduction will give more prominence to guaranteeing and targeting. In line with the new trend of poverty reduction, we should actively develop new poverty reduction strategies, establish new standards for poverty reduction calculation, optimize and adjust the scope of poverty reduction groups, cultivate new momentum for poverty reduction, improve the poverty reduction governance system, and constantly improve the use of financial and poverty reduction funds. Furthermore, this article puts forward four policy suggestions to promote long-term poverty reduction: first, to maintain the overall continuity and stability of current policies during the transition period; second, to establish a regular mechanism for coordinating urban and rural poverty reduction and assistance to vulnerable groups; third, to improve the mechanism for accurate identification and dynamic adjustment of vulnerable targets for poverty reduction; and fourth, to innovate new ways to reduce poverty through security and development.

Effectiveness of credit support to the poverty alleviation of farmers: an empirical study from the perspective of credit demand and supply

HE Lilong;HUANG Ke;ZHENG Yijun

Economic Review,2018,No. 01

【Abstract】 As an important way to implement the policy of poverty alleviation, credit support proves to be effective in backing impoverished farmers accurately and directionally and helping them in self-production and long-run poverty alleviation. Based on the layered measurement of farmer’s relative poverty, data were collected on farmer’s credit activities, and empirical research was conducted on the effectiveness of credit support in poverty alleviation from the perspective of both supply and demand. The research reached the following conclusions. Firstly, credit support shows insignificant accuracy in backing impoverished farmers, directionality in helping their self-production and long-run credit-based poverty alleviation. Secondly, financial information availability, education and household economic structure influence farmer’s credit demand; information availability, relationship with relatives, and income structure affect farmers’ credit availability. Thirdly, impoverished farmers mostly rely on informal credit and tend to have a sense of fear on formal credit, so formal credit tends to favor the rich and despise the poor. Based on the results, the following improvements shall be considered. Firstly, “development-oriented” credit products shall be designed, and credit service “favoring the poor” shall be conducted. Secondly, propaganda on the credit-based poverty alleviation program shall be conducted to solve the problem of “informational poverty” and eliminate people’s fear for formal credit. Lastly, mining the reputation and commercial value of formal credit poverty alleviation projects and properly guiding informal credit activities may enhance the credit supply of farmers in production-based poverty alleviation.

Thoughts about rural poverty in Laos: a case study of N Village, Nambak County, Luang Prabang Province


Southeast Asian Studies,2018,No. 01

【Abstract】 Poverty has been a major issue in restricting the development of Laos. In the past, the study of poverty in Laos was discussed from the external structural factors such as government policy, resource competition, market problems and so on, but lacked attention to local knowledge of poor. This paper will take a Lao village as an example to prove the dual logic of poverty research. On the one hand, the rural poor population in Laos has been affected by the traditional cultural order, such as traditional wealth view, living customs, natural ethics, family structure, social structure and so on; On the other hand, the rural poverty problem in Laos has also been affected by external structural factors such as gambling, drug, marketization, historical problems and so on.

Can social capital slow down the family’s “poverty caused by illness”?—Microcosmic empirical evidence based on health shock

LI Hua;LI Zhipeng

Journal of Finance and Economics,2018,Vol 44,No. 06

【Abstract】 The problem of poverty caused by illness in China is very serious, but the research on the anti-poverty effect of family social capital has not been paid much attention. On the basis of theoretical hypotheses, and by using the 2013 CHARLS data, and the Probit model and IVProbit model, we empirically tested whether the multidimensional social capital can still significantly play a role of anti-poverty effect under the health shock. Our empirical results showed that social capital has a significant anti-poverty effect no matter what kind of health shock happens. Each increase of individual social activities by 0.1 points makes the poverty incidence reduce before and after health shock by 5.1% and 7.5% respectively. Each increase of one community activity place makes the poverty incidence reduce before and after health shock by 0.71% and 1.63% respectively. Each increase of the amount of economic transactions among relatives and friends by 50% makes the poverty incidence reduce before and after health shock by 11.9% and 3.9% respectively. The anti-poverty effect of providing family care time is not affected by health shock, but there is a possibility that the effect is weakened. The anti-poverty effect of family lending has always been not significant. Social capital has a significant effect on family poverty caused by illness alleviation. The role of anti-poverty effect of the “bridge-type” social capital which was built by associating with people in different social and economic conditions is stronger than that of the “bound-type” social capital which was built by associating with family and friends in the same social and economic conditions. Our research provided microcosmic empirical evidence for paying attention to the family-subject social capital and giving play to the role of the informal system governing poverty caused by illness.

Eco-efficiency of Yunnan ethnic minority poverty regions

YANG Hongjuan;ZHANG Chenghao

Ecological Economy,2018,Vol 34,No. 03

【Abstract】 Minority poverty regions must be concerned about the changes in regional ecological efficiency while pursuing development. Based on the selection of the ecological efficiency evaluation index of the ethnic minority poverty regions, this paper uses the Super-SBM model and the Malmquist Index to estimate and dynamically decompose the ecological efficiency of the ethnic minority poverty regions in Yunnan Province, and constructs Tobit model to analyze factors affecting the ecological efficiency. The results are as follows. The overall level of ecological efficiency in Yunnan ethnic minority poverty regions is not high, and the regional ecological efficiency gap is large. From 2013 to 2015, regional ecological efficiency level showed a rising trend year by year, and the increase degree was rising, showing a good momentum of development. The industrial structure and investment to a certain extent promote the regional ecological efficiency. The regional ecological efficiency has a significant negative influence while the proportion of state-owned enterprises does not impact the regional ecological efficiency. On this basis, the paper puts forward three suggestions to enhance the ecological efficiency of Yunnan ethnic minority poverty regions.

Accurate identification of the multidimensional poverty: based on the modified multidimensional poverty measurement of FGT

GAO Ming;TANG Lixia

Economic Review,2018,No. 02

【Abstract】 To better measure the multidimensional poverty index of poor households and non-poor households who are identified by the government’s registration and profile system, this paper employed the revised Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) multidimensional poverty measurement method and reached the following conclusions. Firstly, for the poor area, the highest rates of poverty incidence are sanitary facilities, main fuel of domestic use and productive assets. Secondly, the measurement of the sub-index and the results on rural household type also show that the multidimensional poverty difference between the two types of households is not obvious. Poor households have higher poverty incidence in terms of per capita net income, health condition, housing and durable consumer goods. Thirdly, the measurement results by region showed the regional economic development level is not necessarily correlated with multidimensional poverty index, and regions with high economic development level also have deep multidimensional poverty groups. Furthermore, this paper compares the matching differences between multidimensional poverty and income poverty. The result showed that 98%of the low-income households fall into the multidimensional poverty, while the proportion of non-income-poverty households in multidimensional poverty is 53%. This indicates that from the perspective of multidimensional measurement, the income dimension is still an important factor for multidimensional poverty identification, but the non-income factors have a greater impact on the poverty of rural households.

Tourism and poverty reduction: empirical evidence from China

ZHAO Lei;FANG Cheng;MAO Congling

Tourism Tribune,2018,Vol 33,No. 05

【Abstract】 According to the Poverty Monitoring Report of Rural China 2015, and based on China’s latest poverty line standards, the poverty incidence of rural China has decreased from 97.5% in 1978, with the reform and opening up, to 7.2% in 2014, for a decreasing amplitude of up to 90.3%, and the scale of rural poverty population has been reduced to 70.17 million. How to eliminate poverty is a serious challenge faced by government organizations, non-governmental organizations and international institutions. One concern is that the tourism industry, as a global industry currently growing very rapidly, is gradually coming to be regarded as an important industrial tool to enhance trade participation, promote economic growth, and reduce poverty in many developing countries, especially the least developed countries (LDCs). Regardless of whether “tourism industry specialization” or “tourists as the population proportion” is taken as the proxy variable of the tourism industry level, the PSTR model estimation results show that China’s tourism industry has a significant effect on poverty reduction, and tourism industry can still benefit the poverty population through the trickle-down effect. In addition, the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction has a nonlinear threshold characteristic, which is reflected by the fact that there is a significant negative relation between tourism industry specialization and the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction. This means that the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction is at a high regime with the improvement of tourism industry specialization; however, when tourism industry specialization exceeds the threshold value, the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction turns to the low regime. So, on the contrary, tourism industry specialization will weaken the marginal contribution of tourism industry to poverty reduction. The “tourists as the population proportion” has a significant positive relation with the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction, which means that the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction is in a low regime with the increase of the “tourists as the population proportion,” and the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction turns to a high regime when the “tourists as the population proportion” exceeds the threshold value. Therefore, the “tourists as the population proportion” will gradually enhance the marginal effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction. At the same time, we also find that the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction is much greater than that of the “tourists as the population proportion.” The research conclusion of this paper is clear and profound. First, the tourism industry effectively reduces poverty in China, and thus the tourism industry can be seen as a strategic tool for poverty reduction and development promotion in poverty areas, and the poverty reduction through tourism can also become a choice mechanism to explore numerous ways to reduce poverty in poverty areas. Second, the poverty reduction effect of the tourism industry exists in the form of a nonlinear threshold, which indicates that the contribution degree of the tourism to the poverty reduction is not the same in different development stages of the tourism industry, thus it is necessary to reasonably adjust the tourism industry policy and configure the tourism component resources, in order to keep the poverty reduction effect of tourism in a high influence state.

Access to infrastructure and rural poverty reduction: an empirical analysis based on China’s micro data

XIE Shenxiang;LIU Shenglong;LI Qiang

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 05

【Abstract】 This paper calculated the incidence rate of poverty, poverty gap index and index of poverty intensity, and analyzed the impact of access to rural infrastructure on rural poverty reduction from the data collected from the China Family Panel Studies in 2010 and 2014. The results indicated that access to infrastructure had a positive effect on rural poverty reduction. Specially, access to rural tap water significantly decreased farmer households’ poverty rate. These results were robust to different tests. The study provides enlightenments in understanding how China further implements targeted poverty-alleviation policies in rural areas.

Aspirations, investment and poverty: a new theoretical framework of analysis

YOU Liang;LIU Jundi;HUO Xuexi

China Rural Survey,2018,No. 05

【Abstract】 Tackling poverty in social development has always been an important challenge in development economics. It also remains a key problem, from a policy decision-making perspective, to sustain innovative solutions to tackle persistent poverty. This paper explored the aspirations of the poor population as a key to the endogenous dynamical mechanism, and sought to establish its relationship with subsequent investments. It took investment as the main line of analysis, and created a theoretical framework of Aspirations-Investment-Poverty. Based on analyzing the heterogeneity of individual aspirations, the research divided the population below the poverty line into a high-aspiration group and a low-aspiration group. For the former group, the study put forward the transfusion oriented policy supply in order to eliminate the external constraints that restrict capital investment. As to the latter group, the research suggested an increase in aspirations creation policy supply in order to drive people in the latter group to step into the high-aspiration group, after which the transfusion oriented policy supply can be used to promote their capital investment behaviors.

Transfer payment and regional economic stability: a fuzzy regression discontinuity analysis on the criteria for national poor counties

ZHANG Kaiqiang

Finance & Trade Economics,2018,Vol 39,No. 01

【Abstract】 This paper analyzed the influencing mechanism of transfer payment towards regional economic stability by the policy experiment of Central Government’s national criteria for poor counties in 1993. Theoretical analysis shows that transfer payment will reduce the revenue fluctuation, smooth consumption, share risks, and ensure regional economic stability. Based on county panel data from 2000 to 2007, the empirical results show that the regional economic fluctuation dropped by 1.2% and 2.5% respectively, when the general and special transfer payments increased by 10% in proportion to GDP. Expansive analysis shows that both the automatic stabilizer role and the discretionary fiscal policy role of transfer payment secure the stability of regional economic growth. Therefore, when adjusting the transfer payment structure and perfecting the financial system of the central and local governments, we should raise the proportion of general transfer payment and increase the autonomy of local governments for balanced development and economic stability among regions.

Pauperization of high-level intellectuals in rear areas during wartime: centered on diaries of several famous professors

ZHENG Huixin

The Journal of Studies of China's Resistance War Against Japan,2018,No. 01

【Abstract】 After the outbreak of the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, numerous colleges and universities, in response to the government’s call, moved westward to the rear areas and persisted in running operation under extremely difficult conditions, which made the torch of higher education passed from generation to generation in China. In particular, the professors in the relocated universities could persist in the War by sharing woe with the state and the nation, with great contributions made to carrying forward Chinese culture and education. However, due to the upsurge of commodity prices and the hardship of life, especially the unfair distribution and growing corruption in the rear areas they were witnessing, their mentality will naturally change. And they were turning their attitude towards government from support to criticism. More important still, this influence would continue until the change of their attitude towards the National Government later after the War. This paper, with focus on the diaries and letters of famous professors in the Republic of China, and with reference to other relevant materials, attempted to survey how they remained committed to education in hard times from their life in their writing during the wartime, and analyzed how the pauperization of the intellectuals during the wartime influenced their potential political choice.

A study on poverty reduction effects of transferring agricultural labor force in China


Chinese Journal of Population Science,2018,No. 04

【Abstract】 Employing the methods of logical deduction and mathematical analysis, the paper analyzed the effects of agricultural labor’s transfer on reducing rural poverty. Four mechanisms are proposed as follows: to increase non-agricultural income through non-agricultural employment, to increase agricultural income by promoting scale operation of land, to improve farmers’ earning ability by increasing their human capital stock, and to improve farmers’ influences on policy making by reducing the agricultural population. The paper used econometric analyses to test these mechanisms empirically. The results show that the transfer of Chinese agricultural labor significantly reduces poverty incidence and plays a vital role in poverty reduction in the rural areas. Meanwhile, the average years of education among rural labor force, national financial support for agriculture, rural finance, and rural infrastructure construction have important impacts on rural poverty reduction. In order to strengthen the poverty reduction effect of transferring agricultural labor force in the new era, it is necessary to promote the urbanization of transferred rural population, to deepen the reform of rural land system and that of the national financial and monetary systems, and to implement differentiated poverty alleviation policies.

Poverty of rural migrant families: an analytical framework from the perspectives of income, consumption, and multi-dimensions

GUO Junping;TAN Qingxiang;QU Song

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 09

【Abstract】 This paper examines the scale, grade, spatial variation, and the changing pattern of rural migrant families’ poverty from the perspectives of income, consumption, and multi-dimensions in China. The results reveal that, first of all, consumption poverty and voluntary poverty are primary poverty types of rural migrant families, and that the problem of relative poverty is a serious phenomenon. Rural migrant families have a weaker resistance to the adverse impact of external factors on their income as compared with that on their consumption. Moreover, the phenomenon is especially prominent in the central region of China. Second, the multidimensional poverty of rural migrant families is the most serious in the western region but the mildest in the central region. The poverty incidence declines as the poverty dimension number rises. Thirdly, the dimension of education is a leading cause for national multidimensional poverty, while the dimension of health is a primary cause for multidimensional poverty in Northeast China. Sanitary toilets, bathing facility, cooking energy, and assets of living conditions are most seriously deprived. In economically backward areas, multiple-poverty incidence, average deprivation share, and the highest dimension number of multidimensional poverty are not necessarily higher than those in the economically developed areas. The ten-dimension poverty reduction rate approaches to the sum of n (1 ≤ n ≤ 8)-dimension poverty reduction rates, and ten-dimension poverty alleviation rate in the western and northeastern region of China are lower than the national average. Besides, the relationship between income (or consumption) poverty and multidimensional poverty of migrant families is complementary with both difference and relevancy.

Practice and thinking of ecological migration for poverty alleviation focusing on both “protecting ecology” and “overcoming poverty”: a case study of Yongxing Town, Meitan County in Guizhou Province

CHEN Chen;GU Xuelian;LIU Yanmei

Ecological Economy,2018,Vol 34,No. 02

【Abstract】 Guizhou ecological environment is fragile, and the poor are concentrated, so the project of ecological migration for poverty alleviation is an effective way and important measure to restore ecology and eliminate poverty. This paper took Yongxing Town of Meitan County as a case study, took “protecting ecology” and “overcoming poverty” as a dual goal, analyzed and summed up the implementation strategy and experience in ecological migration. We summarized its ecological migration pattern from three aspects: ecological restoration of original residence, stable settlement of immigrants and sustainable development of resettlement area, in order to provide reference for other towns. Then we put forward some suggestions from the superior industrial development, the adaptability of national culture, the endogenous motivation and stability transition of immigrants.

Gender differences in rural education returns in poor areas: an econometric analysis based on a PSM model

ZHANG Yongli;LI Qingyuan;GUO Shihui

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 09

【Abstract】 Based on survey data from 15 impoverished villages in Gansu Province in 2017, this paper adopted a propensity score matching method to examine the economic returns to education for rural male and female laborers in poor areas at different education stages with results shown below. Firstly, rural education in poor areas has a strong income effect and a certain intergenerational transmission effect. Particularly, women’s education achievements have significantly positive effects on their children to receive senior high and college education. Secondly, there is a clear gender difference in the rate of returns to education in impoverished rural areas. Compared with men, women have significantly higher economic returns to education in junior high school, senior high school and college but lower economic returns ton primary education. Both men and women receive the highest returns from senior high school. Thirdly, further counterfactual analysis showed that by comparing the average treatment effect on the treated and the average treatment effect on the untreated, some laborers with higher capacities have the potential to obtain higher income, but they fail to receive higher and better education. The phenomenon is mostly reflected among the female laborers. Therefore, measures such as promoting senior high school education in poor areas, discovering female potentials in poverty alleviation, and removing the barriers to education entry for poor students with high potentials, may lead education to play a role in fighting against poverty.

Static and dynamic comparison between income and multidimensional poverty in China ①

LI Bo;ZHANG Quanhong;ZHOU Qiang;Mark Yu

The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2018,Vol 35,No. 08

【Abstract】 The research objectives of this paper are to comparatively analyze the static and dynamic disparities between income and multidimensional poverty, and to quantitative analyze the interaction between them. Multidimensional Poverty Index was measured by A-F dual cut-off approach. The state transition and dynamic disparity between income and multidimensional poverty were investigated by joint probability matrix and transfer probability matrix. The head rate and state transition rate between income and multidimensional poverty are similar, but there are huge static and dynamic disparities between this two types of poor families. The overlap of these two types of poor families is only 17% in 2014. Among those who rose (or fell) in income dimensional, generally less than 20% of families also rose (or fell) in the multi-dimensional during 2010–2014. The alleviating progress of extreme poverty is very slow. Based on panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the long-term effects of changes in family poverty could be accurately analyzed. According to the grouping of samples by family characteristics, the static disparities of the two types of poverty among families in each group were compared. The disparity analysis between the two types of poverty was extended from static to dynamic. This paper provides more empirical evidence for the relevant theoretical research and data support for anti-poverty.

The impact of social networks on credit default risk of rural households in underdeveloped areas: an inhibition or an incentive?

LI Qinghai;SUN Guanglin;HE Jing

China Rural Survey,2018,No. 05

【Abstract】 Using survey data on rural households of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2016, this paper divided the credit process of rural households into credit demand, credit availability and credit default, and constructed a three-stage simultaneous Probit model to identify the determinants of farmers’ credit default in less developed areas. The study revealed that social networks not only influenced farmers’ credit demand, credit availability, and access to credit, but also ultimately affected farmers’ credit default risk in less developed areas. The impacts of different types of social networks differed. The analysis showed that individual social networks could improve farmers’ repayment ability, but it could also reduce their repayment willingness that eventually functioned as an incentive for credit default of rural households. Group social networks could improve farmers’ repayment capacity and their repayment willingness, thus inhibiting farmers from credit default. Besides, the credit environment could affect the impact of individual and group social networks. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to heterogeneity of different types of social networks, to promote construction of the rural credit environment and to improve the rural financial ecological environment.

Measurement of household asset poverty in rural China and analysis on its causes

BIAN Shu;FENG Menglong;SUN Yana

Chinese Journal of Population Science,2018,No. 04

【Abstract】 Based on the data from the rural household sample of China Family Panel Studies in 2010, 2012 and 2014, the paper analyzes the level of rural households’ asset poverty and its causes. The main conclusions are as follows. First, as the income poverty rate continued to drop, the level of asset poverty showed a downward trend, followed by an upward one. More than half of rural households were in poverty as measured with net financial assets. Second, while the income poverty gap ratios remained at 11% over the three waves, the asset poverty gap ratios showed a significant growth trend. Third, the asset poverty rates vary with the traits of household heads and family characteristics. The impact of house ownership on financial poverty differs from that on other asset poverty. Fourth, the changes in the household asset in rural China have a single equilibrium rather than multiple equilibriums. Fifth, families impoverished for at least two waves are mainly in structural poverty. Other families fall into poverty randomly, and may switch between poverty and non-poverty randomly. Sixth, health shock and government subsidy had a negative impact on the accumulation of assets. Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes the policy suggestions of combining “individual development account” with the subsistence allowances system, promoting the development of micro-finance in rural areas, and improving the transformation of government subsidy policies to asset accumulation.

A study on the working poor in the city and the influencing factors: evidence from CFPS data

TU Li;YUE Zhang

Population & Economics,2018,No. 05

【Abstract】 With the development of market economy, there is a group of the urban workers who cannot get rid of poverty even if they work hard. Their living conditions have been ignored by the community. Based on the work status quo and the relative poverty line, this paper measures the working poverty degree of urban workers, and uses the Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to measure the working poor in our urban society. It shows that the working poor rate is approximately 27% and the average degree of working poverty is 84%. This paper also constructs the model of influencing factors of urban working poverty. The empirical results show that the family burden is the typical characteristic of the working poor compared with the traditional poverty, and the differences in occupational and industry income are the main reasons why the working poor cannot improve their livelihood through work. It is an effective way to alleviate the poverty of urban workers by focusing on the livelihood problems of urban working poor groups. Raising human capital, promoting employment further, eliminating occupational barriers and enhancing the education and medical treatment for poor groups can be helpful.

A poor village’s endogenous development: research on targeted poverty alleviation in Xincun Village in northern Anhui Province

TAN Xuewen

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 11

【Abstract】 The author investigates the system and mechanism for targeted poverty alleviation, measures taken for poverty alleviation, and the outcomes of poverty reduction in a common poor village in northern Anhui Province. The quality of poverty alleviation was assessed based on sample survey data. It is concluded that the quality of poverty reduction is sound, and the outcomes of poverty alleviation are stable and sustainable. The development of a sample village is discussed. The mechanism driving the development is assessed. It is pointed out that external assistance, represented by targeted poverty alleviation, was the main driving force for the development of the village in recent years. Endogenous driving forces are growing but still weak, which is mainly demonstrated by the following. The village lacks its own governance talents. The development of modern agriculture driven by new businesses and entities in the village is disconnected with the family businesses operated by average households. The author suggests that common poor villages represented by the sample village should pursue flourishing development, develop talents and promote a well-established villagers’ self-governance system as a matter of urgency.

Financial inclusion, risk response and rural household poverty vulnerability

ZHANG Donghao;YIN Zhichao

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 04

【Abstract】 Poverty vulnerability is the probability that a household will fall below the poverty line or remain in poverty. It is a forward-looking measure in the study of poverty, and also an important tool to measure the long-term effectiveness of poverty alleviation mechanism. Using 2015 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data, this paper investigated the effect of financial inclusion on the poverty vulnerability of rural households in China. The study chose indexes from three dimensions of financial services: penetration, usage and satisfaction, and used the factor analysis method to build a financial inclusion index at the village level. It found that financial inclusion had significantly negative impacts on household poverty vulnerability. An increase in the financial inclusion level could reduce poverty vulnerability. By distinguishing the different dimensions of financial inclusion, the study also found that the penetration dimension had a greater effect than the usage dimension, especially for the village bank and other new types of financial institutions. As for the usage dimension, the use of digital financial services had played a more important role than traditional banking services. In addition, it found that financial inclusion could influence the poverty vulnerability by improving households’ ability to cope with risks, and alleviating the risk vulnerability of households. Both the endogeneity test and the robust analysis confirmed the consistency of the conclusions. The study demonstrated that the development of financial inclusion motivated by an increase in the breadth of financial services as an important part of China’s current financial system reform, played an important role to accomplish poverty alleviation tasks.

Does the establishment of national-level poverty-stricken counties promote local economic development? An empirical analysis based on PSM-DID methods

HUANG Zhiping

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 05

【Abstract】 The establishment of national-level poverty-stricken counties is a long-standing policy for China’s poverty alleviation campaign. However, no consensus exists in the literature on whether the establishment of national-level poverty-stricken counties has promoted local economic development. This paper uses panel data collected from 993 counties in China from 2005 to 2015 to study the impact of the designation of these counties on local economic development, applying PSM-DID methods. The empirical results show that, firstly, the establishment of national-level poverty-stricken counties has a significant and long-lasting role in promoting local economic development. Moreover, the longer the national-level poverty-stricken counties are established, the greater the impact is. The conclusion is established to robust tests. Secondly, the establishment of national-level poverty-stricken counties mainly promotes local economic development by optimizing the industrial structure and raising the level of investment in fixed assets. Finally, the study concludes with a number of policy implications.

The evolution of Chinese anti-poverty work over the past 40 years: an quantitative analysis based on China’s anti-poverty policies (1979–2018)

WANG Chao;LIU Junxia

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 12

【Abstract】 The sustainable and healthy operation and development of anti-poverty work depend on effective institutional arrangements in economy and society. This article conducts reviews on the evolution of China’s anti-poverty policies since 1979 based on an analysis of 289 anti-poverty policies issued by the central government and relevant ministries over the past 40 years. This analysis is quantitative, based on a statistical analysis of the number and structural distribution of policies and policy instruments, types and institutions, as well as periodic goals and content. Through these analyses, the study reveals the relationship between anti-poverty development and institutional arrangements. The following conclusions can be drawn. First of all, the number and structure of anti-poverty policies in different stages are determined by the poverty characteristics in different periods. Secondly, the anti-poverty policy goals and measures in all stages are always consistent with the national strategic objectives. Thirdly, the evolution of anti-poverty policies deeply embodies the formation process of anti-poverty ideological system with Chinese characteristics. Fourthly, participation and implementation departments in the development of policies are increasing so that the policy synergies can be enhanced. Fifthly, the evolution of anti-poverty policies always reflects the basic motive force of economic and social development. To summarize, over the past 40 years, changes in institutional arrangements have provided a strong impetus to Chinese anti-poverty development. In the future, the formulation of anti-poverty development policies needs to keep pace with the times and continue to innovate. At the national strategic level, the Chinese government should gradually improve the institution and mechanism of anti-poverty policies based on the poverty characteristics at this stage. After 2020, poverty reduction must be continued so that the ultimate goal of common prosperity could be achieved.

China-ASEAN Free Trade Area: economic influence and poverty reduction effect

YU Miaojie;GAO Kailin

International Economic Review,2018,No. 04

【Abstract】 The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) is the most populous free trade area in the world and the third largest economic cooperation area in the world. Most CAFTA member countries are developing countries and face the common challenge of economic development and poverty eradication. The establishment of the CAFTA not only bears huge economic significance, but also has a crucial poverty reduction effect. Since 2002, when China and the ASEAN signed an agreement to establish the CAFTA, a number of economic cooperation agreements have been reached in the fields of trade, investment, and infrastructure construction, which have contributed to the liberalization of trade and investment, the economic growth of China and ASEAN countries and the progress in poverty eradication. This article reviews the establishment of the CAFTA, summarizes the measures in trade and investment promotion and the cooperation in infrastructure construction.; it analyzes the status quo of trade and investment between China and ASEAN countries, the economic influence and poverty reduction effect of the CAFTA. Finally, the article elaborates on the main challenges facing the CAFTA and puts forward policy suggestions. In the future, promotion of global connectivity and liberalization of trade and investment will remain a very effective way to reduce poverty.

Forty years of China’s poverty alleviation: ideals, practices, and implications to the world

CAI Fang

World Economics and Politics,2018,No. 10

【Abstract】 China’s economic reform over the past 40 years has eliminated institutional barriers deterring the flow of factors of production, and in particular facilitated the exit of abundant laborers from low-productivity fields, the migration between rural and urban areas, across regions, and among industries, and the entry to high-productivity fields. Such a resource reallocation has not only created necessary conditions for high speed growth but also increased income of rural households by enhancing their labor participation in non-agricultural sectors, thus combining development and sharing. Paralleling to that holistically shared development, the Chinese government launched the national strategy of rural poverty alleviation in the second half of 1980s, showing its determination to fight against absolute poverty. As the development stage and poverty nature have changed over time, the strategy has gradually shifted its target from regional development to individual households, along with large-scale government inputs. The overall shared development and governments’ special efforts in reducing poverty have simultaneously helped China break the diminishing effect of poverty alleviation often seen elsewhere and achieve the internationally recognized success in poverty reduction. By narrating the process of reform and development, this paper begins with revealing the unique sources of China’s economic growth in the past four decades and shows its nature of sharing. It then reviews the implementation of the national strategy of rural poverty alleviation under the guidance of people-centered development idea. It summarizes main lessons of the poverty alleviation experience of China and draws implications to other developing countries. In conclusion, it points out new challenges facing China’s poverty reduction after the country meets its goal of zero rural poverty by the current poverty standard by 2020, and provides policy suggestions.

Does decision-making of grassroots fiscal expenditure favor the poor? Evidence from tracking surveys of the Chinese rural households

CUI Jinghua;LI Wanfu;XIE Yuantao

Finance & Trade Economics,2018,Vol 39,No. 02

【Abstract】 Grassroots public expenditure decisions play important roles in low-income people’s welfare level and the poverty rate. This paper adopted logit models and the instrumental variable method to test how rural fiscal expenditure impacted poor rural households in China on the basis of constructing a theoretical analysis framework of fiscal expenditure structure effect. The empirical analysis result of full sample shows that the effect of per capita education expenditure on decreasing poverty rate is the greatest, followed by productive investment in agriculture and water conservancy. However, the village finance has a weaker poverty reduction effect on transfer payments and administrative expenses, and the effect of direct disbursement to villagers on poverty does not decrease but rises over time. In addition, the degree of influence of village finance expenditure on the probability of poverty of rural households is significantly different in different years, and it is heterogeneous due to the difference in age, gender and age structure of household heads. In view of this, in the process of formulating poverty reduction expenditure policies, China should pay attention to the individual characteristics of various households and implement the methods of poverty prevention featuring precise identification, and targeted assistance and management. At the same time, the proportions and scale of productive expenditures such as education expenditures at the grassroots level, investment in water conservancy for agricultural production should be moderately increased and the simple and extensive single direct subsidy or non-productive expenditure model featuring use of a deluge of stimulus should be eliminated. Instead, the “blood making” capacity of poor rural households should be improved so as to effectively alleviate rural poverty.

Rural poverty reduction and re-poverty prevention from the perspective of public investment in human capital

HE Lidao;WANG Yingjie;LU Chuncheng

Public Finance Research,2018,No. 05

【Abstract】 The accumulation and increase of human capital is the key to poverty reduction and re-poverty prevention in the rural poverty areas. In this paper, we analyze the sustainable development of poverty areas after the withdrawal of a series of poverty alleviation policy. We investigate the reasons for re-poverty, constant poverty and chronic poverty of the rural poverty areas and poverty group from three aspects including economic vulnerability, poverty mentality and social exclusion. Moreover, by analyzing factor reward, employment and population migration, we argue that the improvement of human capital is a necessary path to completely overcome poverty and prevent re-poverty. Furthermore, considering the characteristics of the current agricultural intensive development and the vertically and horizontally expanded and massive agricultural industrial chain combined development in rural areas, we implement an impulse response analysis in VAR model using the data on China poor areas from 1996 to 2015 to study the effect of public investment in rural areas’ human capital on reducing rural poverty population. We find that the spending on labor skill training and the investment in population migration based on rural transport infrastructure have an obviously positive effect on poverty alleviation. At last, we provide the policy implications on improving the effectiveness of human capital related public support funds in enhancing human capital in the rural poor areas.

Balanced income growth: does the transfer payment system benefit China’s poor?

LU Shengfeng;CHEN Sixia;SHI Liangyan

Economic Research Journal,2018,Vol 53,No. 11

【Abstract】 The report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes that unbalanced and inadequate development is detrimental to the people’s increasing needs for a better life. There is no doubt that government transfers play an important role in realizing balanced income growth for all different groups of people. In this study, we systematically evaluated the impact of government transfers on reducing poverty with targeted measures. In addition, we examined the income redistribution effect of the transfer system. Our study contributes to a better implementation of China’s fiscal policy reform. The income redistribution effect of government transfers has attracted considerable academic interest. Studies have proved that government transfers are effective at reducing poverty. Far fewer studies have investigated the redistribution effect of private transfers. As such, we make three contributions to the literature. First, we are among the first studies to test the impact of China’s transfer system from multiple dimensions. Three kinds of transfers are considered: government transfers, enterprise transfers, and individual transfers. Second, we used an empirical approach to measure the pro-poorness of these transfers and decomposed the contribution of each kind of transfer to improving income redistribution. Third, we added new micro evidence to the literature on income redistribution and transfers. Empirically, we first used an approach that measures the pro-poorness of different kinds of transfers. We then used this measure to evaluate the benefit incidence of three kinds of transfers: government transfers, transfers from firms and social organizations, and individual transfers. Then, we calculated the contribution of each transfer. Finally, we examined how effective transfers are at reducing poverty using targeted measures. Our data come from China Health and Nutrition Survey. The database covers nine representative provincial regions (i.e., Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi and Guizhou) that differ greatly from each other in terms of their geographic characteristics, public resources, and health conditions. Until recently, the survey also covered three municipalities: Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing. The database includes information on various household variables, such as income sources, property status and survey date. To make our sample more comparable, we deflated currency indicators by the consumption price level. Furthermore, we divided household total income between family members. Then, we categorized households as poverty households based on two criteria: whether the household income per capita is higher than the average sample value and whether the household income per capita is above the national poverty line. We have five basic findings. First, transfers, either from the government, enterprises, or individuals, are pro-poor. China’s transfer system is effective in reducing poverty according to targeted measures. Second, government transfers are the most pro-poor, followed by individual transfers, with enterprise transfers coming last. Third, the economic magnitude of the transfer effect is small. On average, the Gini coefficient decreases by 2.4% as total transfers increase by 1%, accounting for 5% of the total Gini coefficient. Fourth, judging from the marginal income redistribution effect, the Gini coefficient decreases by 0.0248% (0.0123%) if government transfers (individual transfers) increase by 1%. However, the Gini coefficient decreases by 0.0002% if enterprise transfers increase by 1%. Fifth, the redistribution effect of transfers is heterogeneous across different transfer items and over time. To enhance the efficiency of the transfer system, we should make poverty-reduction funds more targeted. The government should also find ways to encourage the private sector to participate in redistribution activities.

Spatial agglomeration effect of multidimensional poverty and spatial spillover effect of financial development on poverty reduction: empirical evidence from China

FU Peng;ZHANG Peng;ZHOU Ying

Journal of Finance and Economics,2018,Vol 44,No. 02

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening-up, China has formulated a series of poverty reduction policies, successfully solved the problem of food and clothing for hundreds of millions of rural poor people, and become the country with the most poverty reduction population in the world. Among many poverty reduction policies, financial development has been playing an important role. Much literature has proved that the poverty reduction effect of financial development comes not only from its direct role in the redistribution of capital but also from the indirect role resulting from the promotion of economic growth and the adjustment to income distribution. However, we find that when discussing how to better play the role of financial development in poverty reduction, the existing research generally ignores the analysis of the characteristics of poverty itself, especially its spatial distribution characteristics. Due to the typical regional imbalance characteristics of China’s economic development, the exploration of spatial characteristics of poverty helps to not only deepen the understanding of poverty, but also better play the role of financial development in poverty reduction. Based on the above consideration, this paper focuses on analyzing multidimensional characteristics of rural poverty and its spatial distribution characteristics, and explores the spatial effect of financial poverty reduction. Using provincial panel data from 1999 to 2014 and spatial econometric model, and with the setting of three weight matrices of geographic distance weight, economic distance weight and nested weight, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of income poverty, education poverty and medical poverty, and then examines the spatial effect of financial poverty reduction. It shows that no matter which weight matrix is adopted, income poverty, education poverty and medical poverty show significant spatial positive correlation, meaning that poverty distribution has a typical “poor-poor” agglomeration characteristic. This feature actually reveals the imbalance of China’s regional development from a perspective of multidimensional poverty. Further studies find that financial poverty reduction shows a significant spatial spillover effect. But as for the poverty of public services like medical poverty, its improvement mainly depends on governmental fiscal expenditure and local economic development level. Compared with the previous research, the possible contributions of this paper are as follows: firstly, this paper explores the spatial distribution characteristics of poverty from a perspective of multidimensional poverty and provides empirical evidence for the pooled characteristics of poverty. Secondly, based on the distribution characteristics of poverty, we use the spatial econometric model to find that financial development can effectively alleviate the spatial agglomeration effect of poverty. This empirical result shows that the existing literature may underestimate the financial role in poverty reduction.

Poverty alleviation in China’s forty years’ reform and future prospects

ZHANG Teng;LAN Zhiyong;QIN Qiang

Journal of Public Management,2018,Vol 15,No. 04

【Abstract】 This paper summarizes the achievements and policy characteristics of poverty alleviation in China since the reform and opening up and tries to answer the new question of where the poverty alleviation work will go in the new era. It also studies and analyzes the dynamic changes of China’s main poverty indicators, and shows the achievements of China’s rapid poverty alleviation since the reform and opening up. Through the analysis of the poverty alleviation policy text, the study also reveals the characteristics of China’s poverty alleviation policy system, that is, high coordination and promotion of the central government, a high priority of the policy agenda, promotion through pilot projects, and the combination of pressure transmission and political mobilization and pay attention to policy resilience and positive incentives. Based on combing the concept and theory of poverty, and combining with the actual situation of poverty alleviation in China, the researchers put forward that after getting rid of poverty completely in 2020, China still faces the new proposition of multi-dimensional poverty and the new challenge of changing the concept of poverty alleviation and realizing sustainable poverty alleviation. The eradication of absolute poverty is only the first step in poverty alleviation. To achieve the goal of sustainable poverty alleviation, we need to re-recognize the core issues of poverty in the future, integrate important concepts such as relative poverty and multidimensional poverty into the policy system and implementation plans of poverty alleviation, and promote the building of a well-off society in an all-round way and a powerful socialist modernization country.

Knowledge transfer from migrant workers to the local impoverished people in poverty alleviation through tourism

RAO Yong;YANG Yuexuan;LIN Xueqiong;CHEN Shengsheng

Tourism Tribune,2018,Vol 33,No. 12

【Abstract】 This study explored the phenomenon of transferring knowledge from migrant workers to the local impoverished people in poverty alleviation through tourism. From the perspective of strategic needs in poverty alleviation and rural revitalization, poverty alleviation through tourism should speed up the transfer of knowledge and technology from developed to impoverished regions as well as from migrant workers to local impoverished people. However, there are currently flaws in poverty alleviation through tourism knowledge transfer, including insufficient beneficiaries, single knowledge base, and low-level content. Based on the case studies of several poverty-alleviation villages in Guangdong Province, this study provided some references for the implementation of poverty alleviation and rural revitalization strategies by analyzing and summarizing the characteristics of poverty alleviation through tourism knowledge transfer and their impact mechanisms. The findings were as the following. (1) Poverty alleviation through tourism knowledge transfer was a kind of cross-group knowledge transfer that took place between migrant workers and the local impoverished people. The quantity and quality of migrant workers and the social relationships between the two groups had a significant impact on the knowledge transfer efficiency. (2) The government’s altruistic input was based on overcoming the failure of self-coordination mechanisms between migrant workers and the local impoverished people and transforming unconscious knowledge spillover into conscious knowledge transfer, which included inspiring migrant worker’s teaching willingness and local impoverished people’s learning willingness, bearing the transaction cost of cross-group knowledge transferring system, and providing the learning opportunities in practice to local impoverished people. (3) The degree of population organization, planning, and purposiveness between migrant workers and impoverished local people were keys to knowledge transfer efficiency. Although the government’s dominant knowledge-stimulating system was established using a micro perspective of pair or panel knowledge transfer, a medium perspective of multilevel coordination networks and a macro perspective of targeted poverty-alleviation policies were keys to establishing a quasi organization for cross-group knowledge transfer. (4) The analysis of grounded theory put forward a connection between the technical process of knowledge transfer and the reproduction of social relationships. Thus, we showed the formation mechanism of knowledge transfer efficiency in poverty alleviation through tourism and proposed a three-stage model for the mechanism of knowledge transfer efficiency in poverty alleviation through tourism, namely, the input, operation, and output stages, which constituted a complete knowledge transfer cycle. This study not only explored the theoretical dead zone of the micro-occurrence mechanism in poverty alleviation through tourism knowledge transfer, but also broadened research range of knowledge transfer theory. Our contributions were as the following. (1) In terms of knowledge transfer, this study analyzed the conceptual boundary, behavioral characteristics, and influential mechanism of cross-group knowledge transfer processes in poverty alleviation through tourism. Thus, it broadened the scope for application of knowledge transfer theory. (2) In terms of poverty alleviation through the tourism theory, the theoretical dead zone of micro-occurrence mechanism in pro-poor knowledge transfer was analyzed to provide a proposed cross-group knowledge transfer as a new theoretical basis for explaining targeted poverty alleviation. (3) In terms of poverty alleviation through tourism practice, this study proposed a viable solution for accelerating the development of impoverished peoples’ capabilities through knowledge transfer.

Poverty reduction effects of public transfer payments

The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2018,Vol 35,No. 05


Stable poverty elimination under the targeted poverty alleviation strategy


Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 11

【Abstract】 Eliminating poverty and achieving common prosperity are the essential requirements of socialism. From the perspective of China’s poverty alleviation process, the practices of poverty alleviation show that poverty alleviation targets are more and more accurate, poverty alleviation standards are getting higher and higher, the initial conditions of the poor people being the targets of poverty alleviation are getting worse and worse, and poverty alleviation costs are getting higher and higher. The targeted poverty alleviation strategy in the new era reflects a kind of methodology, which not only requires the targeted manner to be reflected in all aspects of poverty alleviation work such as poverty identification, measure management and assessment, but also sets clear requirements for the institutional arrangements of targeted poverty alleviation. Poverty elimination has entered a critical sprint. As long as China continues to adhere to the targeted strategy, the poverty alleviation goal in 2020 can be achieved. However, it must be noted that the foundation for targeted poverty elimination is not very solid and needs to be further consolidated and improved to achieve long-term stability and poverty elimination. In view of long-term stability and poverty elimination, the study puts forward the following suggestions. Poverty alleviation measures should be compatible with the degree of poverty, the characteristics of poverty alleviation targets and the local economic and social conditions. Poverty elimination measures should be organically linked up with and coordinated with current policies and measures such as rural revitalization, urbanization and comprehensive social security. Poverty elimination based on industrial development must be combined with the implementation of rural revitalization strategy. Poverty elimination based on employment transfer and relocation must be combined with new urbanization. Poverty elimination based on education and medical assistance must be combined with measures to improve the public service level. Poverty elimination in severely impoverished areas must be paralleled with infrastructure construction. Poverty alleviation measures must be combined with policies of social security. Long-term stability and poverty elimination should be guaranteed by a continuous improvement of poverty alleviation system.

Study on the causes of the poverty of urban migrant workers in China: evidence from Beijing, Shenzhen and Huizhou

HAN Zhenyu;WEI Houkai;SU Hongjian;WANG Ning

Population Journal,2017,Vol 39,No. 03

【Abstract】 To strengthen anti-poverty policies on China’s urban migrant workers, a better understanding of how the poverty happens is needed. In this article, after a review of theoretical and survey-based studies, several hypotheses are proposed concerning both individual and structural poverty-causing factors. The hypotheses are then tested by multinomial and binary Logit models using the survey samples in Beijing, Shenzhen and Huizhou. It is found that heavy household dependency burden, suffering from injuries and diseases, low educational level and short working years are the primary causes of the poverty. Besides, the impoverishment is mostly “voluntary” in aspect of consumption, meaning that they make money for their homes left behind and suppress the demands of their own city lives.

?Social network, informal finance and multidimensional poverty of peasant households

TAN Yanzhi;ZHANG Zihao

Journal of Finance and Economics,2017,Vol 43,No. 03

【Abstract】 Against the realistic background of targeted poverty alleviation and targeted poverty eradication as a strategy under China’s multidimensional poverty, this paper empirically analyzed the functioning mechanism and mediation effect among social network, informal finance and multidimensional poverty of peasant households by peasant households’ multidimensional poverty evaluation system with the data of 2014 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). This research shows that: (1) social network may significantly relieve peasant households’ multidimensional poverty and achieve significant effect on middle multidimensional poverty alleviation of peasant households; (2) social network has significant positive influence on the informal financial credit of peasant households; and (3) social network may relieve peasant households’ financing constraints and then multidimensional poverty by influencing their borrowing through informal finance, namely, to relieve multidimensional poverty and achieve targeted poverty alleviation or poverty alleviation by the functioning mechanism of “social network → informal finance → peasant households’ multidimensional poverty.” It means that social network actually becomes a “hidden mortgage” during the peasant households’ borrowing, by which the households acquire financial support of informal finance and alleviate multidimensional poverty.

How does inclusive finance achieve targeted poverty alleviation?

ZHU Yiming;WANG Wei

Journal of Finance and Economics,2017,Vol 43,No. 10

【Abstract】 How does inclusive finance affect poverty reduction and income growth exactly? Can different income groups benefit from the development of inclusive finance e­qually? This paper employs the 2SLS model and IVQR model, and on the basis of the data of 2018 counties in China, hierarchically compare the heterogeneous effects of inclusive finance development on poverty reduction and income growth of different income groups and the internal mechanism of inclusive finance promoting poverty reduction and income growth. The results show that the development of inclusive finance is beneficial to the increase in rural residents’ income. However, the effect of inclusive finance development in poverty reduction and income growth varies with income groups, and the effect of poverty reduction and income growth of rural residents in poor counties is significantly smaller than that in non-poor counties. The lack of economic opportunities in poor areas and for poor population endogenously determines the heterogeneity of the poverty reduction effect of inclusive finance. Further studies show that the economic growth is an important mechanism of the promotion role of inclusive finance in poverty reduction and income growth. As to poverty counties, the role of inclusive finance in poverty reduction and income growth is attributed to the mediating effect of economic growth to a large extent. Therefore, for the promotion of inclusive finance development, poor and non-poor counties should implement different targeting mechanisms to avoid the “targeting bias,” and the efficiency of financial resources allocation and the precision of poverty alleviation should be improved.

Empirical study on the effect of rural labor migration on poverty alleviation: based on the survey on the peasant households in Gansu Province


Population Journal,2017,Vol 39,No. 04

【Abstract】 The migration and transfer of rural labor are important for anti-poverty in rural areas, which play important roles in alleviating poverty in rural areas. Taking the survey data of 1749 peasant households in Gansu Province as the research samples, this paper puts forward four hypotheses about the relationship between labor migration and poverty based on descriptive statistical analysis. Aiming at the proposed hypotheses, adopting Double-log model, this paper makes an elasticity analysis on peasant household’s income, and finds that the migrant labor in rural household has a significant positive effect on per capita income in rural household. After the further regression analysis of the factors affecting the migrant labor in rural households by using the Probit model, this paper finds that the ages, genders, occupation, education level, health status, place of employment and main skills of the migrant labor have an important direct effect on the migration of rural labor and indirectly affect the poverty situation of the family, so as to prove the proposed hypotheses directly or indirectly. There is a bidirectional relationship between labor migration and poverty, and the income of migrant workers is the major source of income of rural household. Therefore, labor migration plays a positive role in reducing the incidence of poverty in rural areas, promoting the rational allocation of agricultural production elements and alleviating rural ecological poverty.

Measurement of migrant workers’ multidimensional poverty returning in China

JIANG Nanping;ZHENG Wanjun

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 06

【Abstract】 This paper put forward the identification and measurement methods for multidimensional poverty returning on the basis of improving the analysis on the A-F index of multidimensional poverty returning. With such methods, it measured multidimensional poverty returning of the Chinese migrant workers by China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) during 2010–2014 and reached the following conclusions. First, poverty returning was the key reason for poverty of migrant workers in China today. Second, the poverty-returning index of the new-generation migrant workers was lower than that of the old generation, but the gap was narrowing between the two. Third, health, integration into urban life and other dimensions had various contributions to multidimensional poverty returning of the new and old migrant workers.

Poverty reduction effect of inclusive finance and its mechanism: an empirical analysis based on cross-national panel data

SHAO Hanhua;WANG Kaiyue

Financial Economics Research,2017,Vol 32,No. 06

【Abstract】 Based on the panel data of 90 countries from 2004 to 2014, extracted from the Global Financial Development Database (GFDD) and annual Financial Access Survey (FAS), this study constructs a comprehensive indexing system to measure the development of inclusive finance based on the dimensions of penetration, availability, and the use of financial services. In addition, an empirical analysis is conducted based on the established index to explore the poverty-reduction effect of inclusive finance, as well as its supporting mechanisms. The results show that inclusive finance significantly alleviates poverty. In addition, the breadth of the poverty reduction was found to be more significant than the depth of the poverty reduction. It is determined that inclusive finance alleviates poverty by improving the income distribution. However, the assumption that inclusive finance affects poverty reduction by stimulating economic growth is not verified empirically. Therefore, we recommend that the government lower the entry threshold of the financial system moderately, and that it supports inclusive finance institutions in order to attain equitable development.

An analysis of the paradox of “education-caused poverty” and the study on related targeted poverty alleviation strategies: a case study of 14 poverty-stricken villages in Gansu Province

ZHANG Yongli;LIU Weibing

Economic Geography,2017,Vol 37,No. 09

【Abstract】 Based on the field survey data of 14 poverty-stricken villages in Gansu Province, this paper used Logit model to analyze the impact of household labor’s different educational levels on poverty and the relationship between family education and poverty in the family, and responded to and analyzed the problem of “poverty caused by education.” The study found that the improvement in the educational level of farmer labor significantly reduces the probability of families falling into poverty. The enrollment of children from farmer household significantly increases the probability of families falling into poverty, especially when there are 2–3 children in the family. Poverty caused by education” is the consumption-caused poverty caused by the rigid expenditure of family education under the condition of established income, which belongs to temporary and consumption-caused poverty. Finally, in view of the actual situation of poverty-caused education in the western region of China, we put forward some suggestions on how to promote poverty alleviation, including strengthening the construction of teaching staff and developing rural pre-school education scientifically, optimizing the allocation of rural educational resources and promoting the balanced development of compulsory education in urban and rural areas. In addition, the development of high school and secondary vocational education should be encouraged to increase the opportunities for students to choose development; improving the poor students subsidy policy to reduce the burden of education for poor families; establishing integrated urban-rural labor and employment market so as to improve the rural children’s employment level.

Elderly absolute poverty and its determinants in rural china: an empirical study from the perspective of material deprivation

HAN Huawei;GAO Qin;XU Yuebin

Population & Economics,2017,No. 05

【Abstract】 This paper develops a conceptual framework based on a material deprivation approach to explain elderly absolute poverty in rural China. Using a large household survey dataset from 216 villages in Henan and Shaanxi provinces and multidimensional material deprivation indicators, the study directly measures elderly absolute poverty and investigates the determinants of economic resources and basic needs. We find that among five dimensions of material deprivation, the incidence rates of housing and medical deprivation are much higher. There is a significant mismatch between poverty measured using a traditional income approach and poverty measured directly in terms of material deprivation indicators. Besides income, other economic resources, such as household assets, credit support, and public assistance, played a positive role in diminishing material deprivation. However, living alone and negative health shock substantially increased the risk and severity of material deprivation.

Research on dynamic multidimensional poverty in rural areas based on the perspective of personal capability deprivation: a case study of Shanxi Province


Ecological Economy,2017,Vol 33,No. 11

【Abstract】 Capability poverty, dynamic poverty and multidimensional poverty can identify and reflect poverty more comprehensively and accurately. Accurate poverty reduction is the key to improve the effectiveness of the poverty reduction. Using the adult panel data of Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2010 to 2012 in rural areas of Shanxi Province, the paper measures the multidimensional poverty based on the perspective on personal capability deprivation, and analyzes its evolution mechanism using the ordered probit model. The result shows that: (1) the difference of multidimensional poverty in rural areas of Shanxi Province among counties is not statistically significant, which supports the necessity of focusing on contiguous destitute areas instead of poor counties; (2) the rural population who is occupied in agriculture is more easily falling into multidimensional poverty, which is becoming the reason for labor transfer in rural areas; (3) the rural population who has a job is more likely to get rid of poverty, and the government should advance the new urbanization steadily and orderly to promote the employment of the poor rural population; (4) absolute income and relative income do not have an appreciable impact on multidimensional poverty transition, and “income poverty” and “multidimensional poverty” should be treated differently in the process of the poverty reduction.

Income structure, income inequality and poverty of rural households

JIANG Kezhong;LIU Shenglong

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 08

【Abstract】 This article uses the China Family Panel Studies data in 2010 and 2014, and makes a calculation and decomposition of poverty indicators. The study finds that the incidence of poverty of rural households has declined, but the depth and intensity of poverty were deteriorating. Unequal income distribution has made poverty more severe. Based on the analysis to decompose unequal income structure, the study finds that wage income contributed the most to the inequality, followed by operating income, transfer income and property income. Wage income was mainly concentrated in the high-income families, while operating income was mainly concentrated in poverty and other low-income families. Based on the regression and decomposition of income and inequality, the study finds that natural ecological conditions and other characteristics of local villages, family demographic structure and other family characteristics, educational level and health status of family heads, have different effects on household total income, on different sources of income and on income inequality. The study proposes that a fair income distribution system should be constructed during poverty alleviation programs. Meanwhile, the concept of precise poverty alleviation should be put into use, and different measures of poverty alleviation should be taken according to local conditions and personal circumstances.

The state transition and educational factors of chronic multidimensional poverty in China ①

ZHOU Qiang;ZHANG Quanhong

The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2017,Vol 34,No. 04

【Abstract】 The research objective of this paper is to measure the impacts of education on chronic multidimensional poverty in China. Based on A-F dual cut-off approach and the duration approach of Foster (2009), this paper builds up an index of chronic multidimensional poverty, and explores the impacts of education on chronic multidimensional poverty using mixed effects regression model, the Mincer earnings function and its improved form. The research findings are as follows: Education makes the most contribution to chronic multidimensional poverty and the impact increases with the increase in duration of poverty. Educational level leads to the difference in the rate of return on education, which can affect the depth and duration of poverty. Moreover, the rate of return on high school or higher education shows a significant upward trend. The research innovations lie in that it extends the static measurement of multidimensional poverty to dynamic measurement, and analyzes the reasons of the differences in educational resources and levels of education causing poverty difference. The research value is that the model and findings can be used to measure chronic multidimensional poverty and provide targeted approach to alleviate poverty.

Poverty alleviation programs at the grassroots level: a structured dilemma and governance

MA Liangcan;HA Hongying

China Rural Survey,2017,No. 01

【Abstract】 This article uses participant observation to analyze a practical dilemma that can be found in poverty alleviation programs at the grassroots level in poverty-stricken areas, western China, from the perspective of interactions among grassroots cadres, social forces and impoverished people. The results show that the overall dominance by grassroots cadres, the absence of social forces and a lack of a subjective right for impoverished people have pushed the practice of poverty alleviation programs at the grassroots level into a structured dilemma. This dilemma has diminished the effect of poverty alleviation programs and hindered the achievement of national poverty alleviation strategy. The study suggests that, in order to optimize the governance structure of grassroots poverty alleviation programs, the endogenous development should be strengthened which is centered on impoverished people. Besides, it is important to revitalize the power of grassroots cadres, stimulate the participation enthusiasm of social forces and reconstruct the subjective status of impoverished people.

Pensions and multidimensional elderly poverty and inequality: a comparative perspective on urban and rural non-compulsory pension insurance


Chinese Journal of Population Science,2017,No. 05

【Abstract】 This paper uses the panel data of 2012 and 2014 CFPS to build elderly’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) and Correlation Sensitive Poverty Index (CSPI) , which includes consumption, health, living conditions (housing) , life satisfaction and future confidence in China. It then evaluates the effect of two non-compulsory pensions insurances, new rural resident pension insurance system and urban resident pension insurance system, on multidimensional poverty and inequality using the 2SLS fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design techniques to account for the issue of endogeneity. The results show that urban and rural elderly multidimensional poverty and inequality of 2014 were lower than those of 2012.The future confidence is the largest contribution to urban and rural multidimensional poverty in 2012, while in 2014 is the housing condition. New rural resident pension insurance system and urban resident pension insurance system have no significant effect on not only the decrease of multidimensional poverty and multidimensional inequality of the elderly but also each of dimension in multidimensional poverty and multidimensional inequality. Suggestions derived from these findings are to continue to expand the coverage of two kinds of old-age insurance, to improve the level of pensions for urban and rural residents, and to remove bundled attendance.

Whether urban and rural basic subsistence allowances contribute to future poverty alleviation: based on the empirical analysis on the vulnerability to poverty

XU Chao;LI Linmu

Finance & Trade Economics,2017,Vol 38,No. 05

【Abstract】 For a long time, relevant literature has been mainly discussing the impact of subsistence allowance system on the current-period poverty of a family, while ignoring its long-term effects. With the micro survey data in CFPS2012, this paper empirically investigated the impact of urban and rural subsistence allowances on families’ vulnerability to poverty. In this paper, propensity score matching is adopted to eliminate the bias of sample selection as far as possible. The basic results show that the subsistence allowance system fails to play a significant improvement role in vulnerability to poverty, but it is likely to increase family’s probability of falling into poverty in the future. This conclusion is established for both urban and rural families. This paper holds that there are at least the following reasons why the subsistence allowance system does not reduce the vulnerability to poverty. First, there is targeting bias in implementing the system; second, subsistence allowances crowd out the private transfer payments of insured families; third, subsistence allowances reduce residents’ willingness to work. The above conclusions are supported by mechanism analysis. The main contribution of this paper is that it reassessed the poverty alleviation effect of the subsistence allowance system from a forward-looking perspective, which provides reference for the government to formulate and adjust relevant policies.

Empirical research on the rural intergenerational transmission of multidimensional poverty in China

GUO Xibao ;ZHOU Qiang

Chinese Journal of Population Science,2017,No. 04

【Abstract】 Based on Alkire and Foster’s dual-cutoff approach, this paper builds up a comprehensive and decomposable index of intergenerational multidimensional poverty, and explores the mobility, inequality level and its internal transmission mechanism from parent generations to filial generations with pooled regression model by using family panel data of China Health and Nutrition Survey 1991–2011 in rural China. The results show that the degree of intra-generation multidimensional poverty has decreased significantly, and the reduction of poverty in filial generation has achieved remarkable effects after 2000. Education poverty makes the most contribution to multidimensional poverty; it expands the inequality of ability within generation and causes the inequality of poverty. The returns to education show not only regional differences, but also significant differences between generations. The intergenerational difference in the returns to education in different regions is the main cause of the intergenerational transmission of multidimensional poverty and its mobility. The intergenerational transmission of multidimensional poverty is mainly caused by the parent’s poor status, which leads to the deprivation of development ability of offspring. The negative influence of the poor circumstance makes the poor filial generation unable to enjoy equal rights for development of non-poor filial generation. The self-circulation and intensification of endogenous mechanism reinforce the poor families’ intergenerational transmission trend and inequality gap.

The study on the young intellectual group’s residential impoverishment and social adaptation

ZENG Mingxing;GUO Yanqin

Youth Studies,2017,No. 01

【Abstract】 It is an indisputable fact that high housing price has led many families into impoverishment. Through investigation, this study explores the related issues of Shanghai young intellectual group’s residential impoverishment which is due to the rapid increase of housing cost. According to the investigation, for Shanghai young intellectual group, the housing cost burden is generally higher. The problem of residential impoverishment is prominent, and 42.6% of them are in urgent need for houses. The residential impoverishment has led important influences on the young intellectual group’s normal work, life and social behavior, mainly reflected in the following aspects: the pursuit of short, flat and fast job performance; the decline of consumption quality and level, the decrease of immediate consumption; the decline of social communication frequency, the reduction of social circle and so on. Hence, it is necessary to conduct governance through self-psychological adjustment and the construction of related policies, and improve the young intellectual group’s social adaptation.

Multidimensional poverty-reduction effects of rural land circulation: an analysis based on the data collected from 1218 farm households in five provinces

XIA Yulian;KUANG Yuanpei

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 09

【Abstract】 The theoretical mechanism of rural land circulation (RLC) for poverty reduction was first analyzed in this study on the basis of the multidimensional characteristics of poverty. Then propensity score matching and the three-year survey data collected from 1218 farm households in five provinces were employed to analyze the behavior of RLC and its effects on poverty reduction for farmer households. The findings revealed that RLC had significant multidimensional poverty-reduction effects. Among them, the poverty-reduction effects in income and employment dimensions were particularly prominent, and the education poverty-reduction effect gradually emerged. However, there was evident asymmetry in the poverty-reduction effects between rural land outflows and inflows, with outflows having more significant effects in income and employment dimensions while inflows not having very evident effect in the education dimension. The study suggests that promoting RLC is likely to be a new path to increase farmer households’ incomes, improve the sustainable development capacity of farmers, and guarantee their rights, thus further promoting the comprehensive poverty reduction.

Do subsidies make up for the loss of grain production efficiency?

GAO Ming;SONG Hongyuan;Michael CARTER

Management World,2017,No. 09

【Abstract】 This paper adopted the micro-data of National Rural Fixed Observation Point from 2003 to 2014 and used the latest technology epsilon based measure model of data envelopment analysis to dissect the loss of wheat production efficiency in Henan Province from 2009 to 2014 based on the dynamic asset poverty theory. Then, it estimated the impact of agricultural subsidies on the lost production efficiency with the Heckman sample selection model. Finally, it made robustness test on the research results through instrumental variables and multiple estimation methods. As revealed in research, Henan Province suffered severe loss of wheat production efficiency from 2009 to 2014 despite a year-by-year increase; agricultural subsidies motivated peasant households who were restrained by assets to choose mode of production with high productivity, thereby making up the loss in grain production efficiency; agricultural subsidies are critical for wheat production, especially the direct ones; subsidies for purchasing superior crop varieties reduce productivity loss of peasant households with the wheat sown area less than 6 mu, while general subsidies for agricultural supplies exert significant influence on peasant households with the wheat sown area greater than 6 mu. In light of that, this paper proposes relevant measures and suggestions.

Absolute poverty and material deprivation in rural China: evidence from Henan and Shaanxi provinces

HAN Huawei;GAO Qin;XU Yuebin

Population Journal,2017,Vol 39,No. 06

【Abstract】 This paper develops a conceptual framework based on a material deprivation approach to understand poverty in rural China. We use a large household survey dataset from Henan and Shaanxi provinces to investigate the odds and severity of material deprivation as measures of absolute poverty. We find that 35.92% of rural households in the survey reported one or more dimensions of material deprivation, and their average number of deprivations experienced was 1.53 out of a total of 6. Among the dimensions of material deprivation, the odds of housing and medical deprivations were much higher than those of other dimensions. The odds of material deprivation were much higher than the poverty rate estimated based on household disposable income per capita. Higher household income per capita was associated with reduced incidence and severity of material deprivation. After controlling an array of resources and basic needs factors, the effects of household income per capita on material deprivation decreased in magnitude but remained statistically significant. The results from regression analyses show that, besides income, other economic resources such as household assets, health insurance, credit support, and public assistance played a positive role in reducing material deprivation. However, poor health of household members and catastrophic out-of-pocket medical expenses substantially increased the risk and severity of material deprivation. These findings suggest that identification of rural absolute poverty solely based on household income may induce significant targeting errors, and receiving income assistance is insufficient for the rural poor to escape from material deprivation. In the anti-poverty practice in rural China, the government should take effective measures to increase poor households’ physical and human capital, promote accessibility of credit and public services, and provide health insurance or health assistance to alleviate the negative effects of health risks on family wellbeing.

Measurement and decomposition of the push factors of China’s rural anti-poverty performance: 1978–2014

WANG Zengwen

Finance & Trade Economics,2017,Vol 38,No. 09

【Abstract】 By using China Yearbook of Household Survey and Chinese Household Income Project Survey, we measured, decomposed, and tested the push factors of rural anti-poverty performance. We found that the rural poverty rate fell, benefited from the endogenous reform of land policy from 1978 to 1985, and from 1986 to 1993, China’s rural poverty rate was still falling rapidly, and economic growth played a leading role, while the marginal revenue was falling. Although rural areas had implemented development-oriented poverty relief and social relief during the period from 1994 to 2000, the poverty rate decline was not large, because negative effects from redistribution offset the contribution of economic growth. China’s rural poverty rate was rising slightly from 2001 to 2014, because the positive contribution of economic growth was falling and the effects of poverty targeting mechanism on income distribution were low, which led to a falling composite contribution rate. Throughout the 30 years’ strategy and path of anti-poverty, we found that economic growth played a dominant role, and as the poverty rate and poverty gap rebound, the contribution of income distribution and redistribution to reducing poverty would rise. Thus, the Chinese government should increase investment in rural public products and public services to optimize the path and strategy of rural anti-poverty.

Correlation analysis of self-care ability, service demand and family poverty of the rural elderly

LIU Huan

Population Journal,2017,Vol 39,No. 06

【Abstract】 With the rapid aging of the population and the changing patterns of the old-age care, the problem of old-age population in rural areas has become an important topic of academic concern. The rural aging population is not only facing a large pension economic pressure but also facing inadequate supply in the elderly care services because of the outflow of rural adult labor. Poor elderly families in rural areas should be attached more attention. Will the self-care ability of the elderly population have an impact on family poverty? What is the relationship between family poverty and the self-care ability as well as the service demands of the elderly? These are the problems demanding prompt solutions. Based on the above, this paper analyzes the relationships between the self-care ability, service demands and family poverty of rural elderly people from the perspective of the accurate identification of the factors for the family poverty and the view of aging. The specific method is established based on the nine survey panel data of the CHNS database from 1989 to 2011, and the panel Logit regression estimation test is employed to examine each hypothesis, by setting a simultaneous equation model. The regression results show that the self-care ability of the elderly in rural areas is positively correlated with their service demands but negatively related to the low-income family and family size. There are significantly negative correlations between the elderly’s service demands and their family income as well as the quality of life. However, the self-care ability of the elderly has a significantly positive effect on their service demands. The satisfaction level of service demands, personal income, and medical insurance have significant negative impacts on the poverty of the elderly family, whereas the impact of the self-care ability on the family poverty of rural elderly families is not significant. Further study indicates that significant correlations between the self-care ability, service demands and family poverty in non-elderly families exist. Therefore, it can be found that there are significant correlations between the self-care ability, service demand and family poverty. For poor elderly families in rural areas, priority should be given to meet their economic and health needs, so as to provide support for the accurate identification of aging poverty and the accurate assistance for poor families. On this basis, the elderly care services and the life quality of the rural elderly people will be gradually improved.

The complexity of policy and national governance:* the case of poverty alleviation in China

LYU Fang;MEI Lin

Sociological Studies,2017,Vol 32,No. 03

【Abstract】 The choice of governance structure is determined by the characteristics of the governed. In the complex policy, characterized by multi-purposes, a claim for flexibility, and sensibility to environmental divergence, is more efficient for empowering the basic-level government. The needs of the targeted group can be better responded to. At the same time, it may cause moral hazards and the behavior of the local government needs to be better guided and regulated. In addition to the common practice of aim-setting and supervision, the central government promulgates policy criterions to regulate the activities of local governments. Meanwhile, local governments are encouraged to translate the policy criterions into practical activities that respond to local needs. The collaboration between central and local governments are essential to bridging the gap between state control and local flexibility.

Impact of China’s urban resident basic medical insurance on targeted poverty alleviation: household survey data based on URBMI pilot assessment


Economic Research Journal,2017,Vol 52,No. 09

【Abstract】 Based on the perspective of targeted poverty alleviation and the households as the object of study, this paper comprehensively evaluated the poverty alleviation effect of the existing urban resident basic medical insurance (URBMI) system, and dynamically analyzed the impact of URBMI on the income of different strata and its lagging effect under the impact of serious illnesses. This study found that the URBMI policy has obvious effect on poverty alleviation for low-income urban households, especially for those who are affected by the risk of serious illnesses. It can play a significant role in alleviating poverty caused by illness and returning to poverty due to illnesses. Moreover, this effect will continue over time and will be further strengthened by influencing household education and training expenditures and the health status of labor force. However, the effect of poverty alleviation has obvious heterogeneity in different income households, especially in the middle and high income insured households. The phenomenon of “upward movement of target” has appeared. There is a gap between the accuracy and expectation of poverty alleviation, which points out the improvement direction for future targeted poverty alleviation work.

Effects of public transfers on income distribution and poverty in China


Economic Research Journal,2017,Vol 52,No. 09

【Abstract】 China’s progress in poverty reduction over the last 30 years is enviable. Income poverty has been dramatically reduced. With the implementation of the USD 1 per day (PPP) poverty line, the poverty rate (headcount ratio) in China fell from 28.9% in 1989 to 6.7% in 2010. At the same time, China’s Gini coefficient remains high, despite its decline over the last 10 years. Today, the types of public transfers for urban and rural families in China mainly include the minimum livelihood guarantee scheme (known as Dibao, for people who have lower per capita income than the local minimum living standard), reforestation subsidy, agricultural subsidies, subsidies to wubaohu (for low-income, blind, disabled, elderly persons, and young persons who have no means to support themselves), subsidies for especially poor households, work injury subsidies ( for immediate family members), and emergency or disaster relief. Public transfers for individuals (excluding Dibao, and other household transfers) include unemployment insurance payments, family planning subsidies for one-child families, subsidies for the elderly without social insurance, disability benefits, and poverty subsidies for health expenditure. Social assistance for urban and rural residents accounts for the largest proportion of public transfers, with an increase from CNY 153 billion in 2003 to CNY 2198 billion in 2014. This leads to the following question: what is the role of public transfers in income inequality and poverty change? To evaluate the effects of public transfers on inequality and poverty, some researchers have compared the program participants with a control group of people possessing characteristics relevant to program participation by running counterfactual simulations. In addition, partial equilibrium and decomposition analysis serve to assess the welfare effects of public transfers. This paper analyzes the effects of public transfers on income inequality and poverty in China, based on a linked top-down and bottom-up (TD-BU) model that integrates an econometrically estimated micro-simulation (MS) model and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Data from the 2012 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) conducted by the Social Science Research Center of Peking University, China, are used to construct the social accounting matrix for China (SAM), which is the foundation of CGE. The SAM is obtained mainly from the 2012 Input-Output tables of China and consists of 17 sectors in total. The model assumes that when doubling public transfers, the government balance is kept fixed with two different financing options: either an increase in direct taxes to households and firms or a growth in indirect taxes. The model also considers that labor supply adjusts to changes in the tax-benefit schedule and in the general equilibrium effects of public transfers on the whole economy. The integrated model calculates the public transfer changes in MS and simulates the variations in labor supply of different skills before communicating with CGE. Variables such as wages for different skills of workers are then generated. Wages as exogenous variables are fed back to MS to derive a new labor supply of different skills, which are then fed back to CGE as exogenous variables, thereby generating new wages for different skills of workers that communicate with MS. This iterative process continues until the difference in the values of labor supply of different skills between two consecutive iterative steps is close to zero. The results show an increase in GDP when consumption increases and a minor reduction in labor supply when the direct tax option is chosen to increase public transfer payments. The direct tax option gives a higher reduction in income inequality than the indirect tax option. Doubling public transfer payments leads to a two-percentage-point reduction in poverty when we use the direct tax option and a one-percentage-point reduction when we use the indirect tax option.

The accurate poverty alleviation in ethnic region from the perspective of multidimensional poverty: an analysis based on CHES2011 data

LIU Xiaomin

Ethno-National Studies,2017,No. 01

【Abstract】 This paper adopts methods for measuring multidimensional poverty to construct multidimensional poverty index system for studying multidimensional poverty in villages of ethnic region in China, and conducts empirical analysis of villages of ethnic region. The result reveals that multidimensional poverty has regional and ethnic differences. The multidimensional poverty in Guizhou, Guangxi and Hunan of Southwest China is worse than Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia of Northwest China. The multidimensional poverty of ethnic minorities is worse than the Han people. Like the income poverty, ethnic difference of multidimensional poverty is in accord with regional difference. The result of dimensional decomposition reveals that the most serious problems for rural poor households in ethnic region are education, terrain, natural disasters, fixed assets and others. Therefore, as for the implementation of the accurate poverty alleviation, it needs to comprehensively and scientifically accurate identify the poor people from the multidimensional perspective.

Spatial characteristics of livelihood capital of poor farmers and its influential factors in loess hilly region: a case study of Yuzhong County, Gansu Province

LIU Chunfang;LIU Youyan;WANG Chuan

Economic Geography,2017,Vol 37,No. 12

【Abstract】 The problem of farmer’s poverty and livelihood are the important issues in loess hilly areas because of its poor ecological environment, and low level of social and economic development. Based on the survey data of 2300 farmers in Yuzhong County, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of the livelihood of the farmers according to the socio-economic characteristics of the region. Using the cluster analysis method and the spatial correlation analysis method to calculates the level of livelihood capital of farmers of 23 towns in Yuzhong, determines the type of livelihood capital in different areas of the county, analyzes the types and distribution characteristics of the livelihood capital of the poor farmers in the county. Geographic weighted regression model (GWR) was used to analyze the influencing factors of spatial distribution of livelihood capital. The results show that the overall livelihood capital of the Townships and towns in the middle area of Yuzhong County is better, while the livelihood capital of the rural households in the northern mountainous areas and the southern mountainous areas is deficient. There is a certain spatial correlation and dependency between the livelihood capital of each township in Yuzhong, which has obvious spatial pattern characteristics. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations are shown in the region. The results of GWR analysis showed that there was a negative correlation between population density and total household livelihoods. Meanwhile it has a positive correlation between total vegetable production, road network density, precipitation, temperature, GDP per capita, total grain output and total livelihood capital. The total output of vegetables and the density of road network have the greatest impact on the livelihood of farmers. Therefore, aiming at the characteristics of the livelihood capital of the farmers in Yuzhong and combining with the natural, economic and social characteristics of the loess hilly region, some countermeasures to improve the livelihood of the farmers are put forward.

“Capital transfer” or “cash transfer:” a path analysis and policy simulation of China’s targeted industry-based poverty alleviation

LI Zhiping

Journal of Finance and Economics,2017,Vol 43,No. 04

【Abstract】 Industry-based poverty alleviation aims to incorporate the production of poor households into the grand social industrial circulation, and it is always one of the key modes and objectives of the world poverty alleviation. In China, two paths of targeted industry-based poverty alleviation have emerged: GTP, namely, to give piglets, chickens and other well-bred young animals as capital to poor households and then directly include them to the local industrial system, and GSP, namely, to convert the poverty alleviation funds into cash and allow the poor households to choose investment projects and choose industries by themselves. This paper built a micro principal behavior model including poor and non-poor households and a rural welfare model based on rural equality and efficiency, studied the dynamic evolution of the welfare of poor households and rural areas in the two new paths respectively, and conducted policy simulation using the system dynamics model so as to explore the optimal path of China’s targeted industry-based poverty alleviation and its supporting policy space. The results show that within three or four years, GSP is better than GTP, but after more than four years, the welfare of poor households and rural areas in GTP path would progressively exceed that of GSP. Moreover, the longer the period of carrying out GTP, the better the poverty alleviation effect will be. In the middle and long run, improving skills of poor households and increasing their initial capital are key links of further improving the welfare of poor households and rural areas in the path of GTP. The conclusion of this paper has certain policy implications for increasing theoretical confidence of China’s targeted industry-based poverty alleviation and improving China’s targeted industry-based poverty alleviation policy system in China.

Habitat simulation: correlation and integration of poverty population-centered big data in targeted poverty alleviation

ZHANG Changping;LIN Tao

Journal of Public Management,2017,Vol 14,No. 03

【Abstract】 In order to explore the possible paths of using big data to support targeted poverty alleviation, the paper conducts a multi-case study on the literature of targeted poverty alleviation and cases of the big data management platform. It is found that there are various problems in the research and practice of targeted poverty alleviation in terms of data collection, data analysis and big data management, such as serious stovepipe development and information silo, inadequate application of interdisciplinary research and integrated data analysis methods, insufficient block data development and the application of targeted poverty alleviation, and the lack of correlation and integration of poverty population-centered data. In response to the shortage of big data application, the concept of habitat in ecology is introduced into our study. Habitat is used to define the people and things centering on the poverty population in a particular space. The big data correlation and integration based on the habitat of the poor is performed to form a horizontal integration program complementary to the big data management platform of targeted poverty alleviation based on the business process. Then, we put forward five application scenarios of using the “habitat” block data for the development of targeted poverty alleviation. This paper mainly constructs a theoretical model for the poverty population-centered big data correlation and integration scheme. In the future, more empirical evidence is needed to determine whether the model is feasible in practice.

Optimization and simulation of strategies for ecological poverty reduction among migrants in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

SHUAI Chuanmin;WANG Jing;CHENG Xin

The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2017,Vol 34,No. 01

【Abstract】 Research objective: Optimization of ecological poverty reduction strategies for the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. Research methods: This paper has identified the key poverty influencing factors through a co-integration analysis and built a theoretical model of ecological poverty reduction system (EPRS) for the reservoir region by adopting a system dynamics model. Then, it conducts an optimization simulation analysis by taking Wanzhou in Chongqing as a case. Research findings: Geological disaster has a long-term co-integration relationship with land, rainfall and environmental investment, and so is the relationship between impoverished population and cultivated land, drinking water quality and net income per capita of rural households. Pollution control scenario and disaster management scenario can both reduce the incidence of poverty. In the three scenarios, coordinated development scenario is the best optimization choice for poverty reduction. Research innovations: This paper builds a theoretical system dynamic model of EPRS for the reservoir region and reveals the complex relationships and dynamic feedback mechanism between geological disaster, ecological environment and immigrant poverty. Research values: Systematic poverty reduction strategies considering eco-environment protection and disaster mitigation are proposed for the Three Gorges Reservoir Region based on the above findings.

A study of practice-oriented enhancement in Xi Jinping’s thoughts of targeted poverty alleviation

TAN Xuewen;LI Jing

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 09

【Abstract】 The thoughts of targeted poverty alleviation are an action-oriented theory, which has practical and theoretical backgrounds, defined by the goal that by the year of 2020, all rural residents living below the current poverty line will have been lifted out of poverty. The thoughts of targeted poverty alleviation include targeted poverty alleviation and elimination, perseverance and meticulous work. A lot of innovative initiatives have been conducted, with the purpose of overcoming problems concerning identification, household approach, and inadequate mechanisms. After more than three years of explorations, the undertaking of targeted poverty alleviation has come to display obvious characteristics in eight aspects. Still, the poverty alleviation endeavor remains in development and the present paper summed up five lingering deficiencies. Toward the end of this paper, six aspects were proposed for deepening the thoughts of targeted poverty alleviation in practice. They included consistent criteria and identification, differentiation between poverty alleviation and the minimum living standard security system, cultivation of subject initiative, improvement of accountability systems at the grassroots level, authorization of more power to people who play a key role in poverty alleviation at the grassroots level, and the development of big data and cloud computing for poverty alleviation.

Progress in the study of water poverty evaluation

YANG Qian;WANG Mei;HAN Linzhi;LIU Zhihui;ZHENG Jianghua

Ecological Economy,2016,Vol 32,No. 01

【Abstract】 This paper summarizes the domestic and foreign research on water poverty evaluation, points out some problems in water poverty evaluation and puts forward some suggestions for improving water poverty issue. The problems in the existing studies on water poverty are as follows: firstly, the concept of water poverty is uncertain, thus the corresponding forming principles and mechanisms are not clear; secondly, the measuring model needs to be improved; thirdly, the analysis of evaluation results is only limited to the advantages and disadvantages of evaluated objects in each subsystem, and the further analysis of coupling relationship and spatial differentiation between water poverty and economic poverty based on geographic information system is less. According to the current research progress, future research on water poverty theory tends to be within regions (basins) or even communities. The research on influencing mechanisms of water poverty and industrial structure in arid land and semi-arid regions has important theoretical and practical significance to alleviate water poverty, to improve the utilization capability of water resources, and to explore the optimal layout of industries.

Accessibility at different tiers and its impact on economic development in poverty-stricken mountainous areas: a case study of the Qinba Mountainous Area

WANG Lu;HUANG Xiaoyan;CAO Xiaoshu;FAN Hong

Economic Geography,2016,Vol 36,No. 01

【Abstract】 With the Qinba Mountainous Area, one of the exceptionally poverty-stricken regions announced by China, as an example, by GIS network analysis technology, this paper analyzes the spatial features of its accessibility to mega cities, prefecture-level cities and counties. With the county as the basic unit, it reveals the impact of transport accessibility to cities at different tiers on per capita GDP and the urbanization rate. According to the results, the transport accessibility of the Qinba Mountainous Area shows the spatial feature of fading outward from the counties or prefecture-level cities to peripheral areas. The transpor accessibility between the counties and mega cities and prefecture-level cities show a general pattern of “being poor in the northwestern and southeastern corners;” the convenience of connection has no significant effect on the economic development of the Qinba Mountainous Area. Per capita GDP is influenced mainly by the transport accessibility to mega cities and prefecture-level cities, namely, the better accessibility is, the higher per capita GDP will be; the time of transport accessibility to the mega cities, prefecture-level cities and counties has no significant effect on the urbanization rate of counties. It shows to some extent that the poverty-stricken mountainous counties are hard to effectively play the role of the gathering centers of the key consumption area of subsidiary agricultural products and industrial production, and is weak in radiation and attraction to the people in its hinterland due to weak inherent drive force of economic development, low economic development levels and insufficient service capacity.

Poverty in South America and evolution of anti-poverty policies

GAO Qingbo

Journal of Latin American Studies,2016,Vol 38,No. 03

【Abstract】 The paper seeks to examine poverty in South America, summarize anti-poverty policies in regional countries, and analyze major features and determinants of those policies. It is believed that there are three factors that have led to poverty reduction in the region. The first is economic growth, the second are social protection and welfare policies, and the third is the contribution from regional integration organizations. Economic growth in this region has laid a foundation for poverty reduction. Beside this, social policies became an increasingly important factor for the anti-poverty progress. The review of anti-poverty policies in the region shows that South America’s integration is still on the initial stage. During last two decades, the integration of social policies in this region was paid little attention. In recent years, thanks to the conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs as well as noncontributory pension system, social policy is being transformed into the driving force of the regional integration.

Chain financing model and targeted poverty alleviation effectiveness: a research based on quasi-experiment

SHEN Yun;PENG Xiaobing

Journal of Finance and Economics,2016,Vol 42,No. 09

【Abstract】 Based on the quasi-experiment on chain financing of ten national poor counties in Sichuan, Chongqing and Jiangxi Provinces in 2013 and 2015, this paper adopts the DID method and the DID-PSM method to test systematically and empirically “the anti-poverty effect under the model of participating in and using chain financing by the poor and non-poor households in base period.” The results show that firstly the overall effect of industry chain financing in reducing poverty of rural households is good, and the proportion of the poor rural households participating in the industry-oriented poverty alleviation is higher than that of non-poor households; also, the effect of benefiting the poor of chain financing shows the diminishing marginal income. Secondly, compared with rural households directly obtaining loans from financial institutions, the anti-poverty effect of the chain financing adopted by the rural households based on the industry-oriented poverty alleviation is better. In addition, using the model of “financial institutions credit → leading enterprises (industry support) → rural households” and the model of “financial institutions → specialized cooperatives (industrial services) → rural households” may produce significant effects of benefiting the poor for the poor and non-poor households in base period. The model of “mutual fund cooperatives → rural households” mainly has a significant anti-poverty effect on the non-poor households, while the model of “commercial financial institutions → rural households” has an unobvious anti-poverty effect on both the poor and non-poor households.

Research on the impact of labor force’s outflow on rural family poverty: evidence from four poverty-stricken areas in Hubei Province

ZHAO Man ;CHENG Xiangyu

Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016,No. 03

【Abstract】 Based on the data of the investigation in four poverty-stricken areas in Hubei Province in 2014 and 2015, and using Logit model and Tobit model, this paper intends to study the impact of labor force’s outflow on family poverty in rural areas. The study finds that the labor force’s outflow in rural areas brings a negative impact on poverty alleviation. The rural outflowing labor force not only aggravates rural family poverty, but also more likely sinks families into heavier poverty. With insufficient labor left behind, the outflow causes a labor force shortage and confines the rural family’s development, which hinders rural poverty alleviation. On the other hand, because of the separation of family members, the benefits of family’s economic size cannot be fully shared. Although a family’s total cash income increases, the equivalence scale of adjusted income per capital drops, which altogether aggravates family poverty. The implication of the findings is that promoting local hiring for the left-behind and back flow labor, and focusing on regional resources’ fighting off poverty are right ways of practicing targeted poverty alleviation.

Poverty of rural migrant workers leaving both their farmland and hometown: a “survival-development-risk” perspective

ZHU Xiao;DUAN Chengrong

Population Research,2016,Vol 40,No. 03

【Abstract】 An increasingly evident trend in China’s urbanization is the “urbanization of poverty.” Migrant workers, especially those leaving both their farmland and hometown have become the main body of the new urban poverty population. Previous poverty studies focus more on “survival” but less on “development” and “risk” of the migrant workers. Based on the scarcity theory and the risk society theory, this paper puts forward a three dimensional framework of “survival-development-risk” for poverty analysis. Empirical analysis using data of 2008 Chinese Household Income Project Survey of migrant population shows that the majority of impoverished migrant workers suffer from meager wage, hindered development, as well as lack of social insurance, and may easily fall into risky poverty. In addition, their subjective feeling of deprivation is also higher than the non-poor. This study also identifies variables, including gender, education level, job type, occupation and region, which have significant effects on poverty.

?The effects of private lending on rural poverty alleviation: from the perspective of health shock

XU Qing;LIU Jin;YANG Qing

Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016,No. 03

【Abstract】 How to reduce illness-related poverty is a major task in China’s targeted poverty alleviation. Using China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) 2010 and 2012 survey data, this paper empirically studies effects of private lending (especially zero interest loan) on rural poverty alleviation in views of incidence and vulnerability to poverty due to major illnesses. The results show that, although private lending can reduce the incidence rate of poverty by coping with peasants’ healthcare burden to a certain extent, it will increase the vulnerability to poverty later. Therefore, some measures about poverty reduction need to be taken. First, the investment on improving the health of peasants and sanitation of their environment needs to be expanded to improve their heath and welfare. Second, the private lending should be legalized and standardized to better play the role of poverty alleviation. Third, the urban labor force needs to be transferred to non-agricultural industries, and measures need to be taken to increase their farming production so as to broaden their ways to increase income.

?Multi-dimensional endowment conditions, geographical spatial spillover and regional poverty governance: the case of Longmen Mountain fault zone

ZHANG Junliang;YAN Dongdong

Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016,No. 05

【Abstract】 From the perspectives of natural geographical endowment conditions, social economic endowment conditions and geographical spatial spillover, this paper theoretically analyses the various factors affecting regional poverty. Furthermore, the paper uses spatial coupling relationship and spatial panel econometric model to empirically study the impact of different endowment conditions and geographical spillovers effect on regional poverty, based on the data of 30 counties (cities and districts) of Longmen Mountain fault zone from 2008 to 2013. The study shows that the higher the risk of natural disasters or the more fragile ecological environment is, the higher the poverty rate is. It leads to a high degree of spatial coupling between the two, which causes the spatial agglomeration of poverty in the region. Meanwhile, the role of financial poverty alleviation is presenting alienation condition. Urbanization and economic development in these areas show weak effects on poverty alleviation. Meanwhile, the improvement of medical conditions on poverty reduction is not significant. In contrast, roles of public service supply and transportation conditions on poverty alleviation and poverty reduction are evident. Therefore, in order to achieve precise poverty alleviation for the special focus on contiguous poor areas, it is fundamental to increase public service supply efforts and enhance investment in infrastructure construction.

Change of tenancy structure: pauperization of tenants and turning into hired-hand peasants in the 1930s and 1940s

LIU Kexiang

Researches in Chinese Economic History,2016,No. 05

【Abstract】 The period of the 1930s–1940s marked a significant historical period for the feudal tenancy system of China during which it has undergone numerous changes before reaching its end. The waves of tenancy scope expansion were noticeably accompanied by three transformations. First, forms of tenancy became diverse and among them the prominent ones are sell-land-but-stay-farming tenancy, foregift-derived tenancy, and “helper” tenancy under which landlord provided production means. Second, the structures of renter households and tenants also became diverse, prevailing at all social-economical strata in rural areas, with complex interconnected tenancy relationships. However, the core feature and property of the conventional feudal tenancy persisted. Third, wide spread tenants’ decline to poor farmers or farm laborers. Not only the poorer tenants replaced middle-class tenants and became the main population of tenants, but also quite a number of tenant families operating as independent producer units descended to hired laborers. This means that the feudal tenancy system adopted for over two thousand years has come to its end.

Measuring the effectiveness of UN IFAD poverty alleviation in China: panel data on 1356 rural households in seven provincial regions

SHUAI Chuanmin;LI Wenjing;CHENG Xin;SHUAI Jing;DING Liping;TAO Xing

Management World,2016,No. 03

【Abstract】 This study adopts a quasi-experimental method, designing the sample size for treatment and control groups, setting up a large sample of 1356 households before and after project intervention, using peasant household asset index and household scorecard index, which are two stable indices of poverty, to filter out time effect measurement errors, and utilizing difference-in-differences, propensity score matching and panel regression methods to quantitatively analyze the net contribution to rural poverty reduction from the UN International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). It finds that IFAD project intervention (1) significantly reduced China’s rural poor population, with 387,646 individuals in nine provincial regions brought out of poverty during the project implementation period; (2) had a significant positive influence on household total assets and poverty index; and (3) significantly increased the empowerment of the poor and status of women, food security and agricultural efficiency, and natural resources, environment, and risk resistance. Based on the above findings, corresponding policy recommendations are put forth to accurately and precisely reduce poverty in China.

The bricolage process of resource-poor firms in response to environmental changes

SU Fang;MAO Jiye;XIE Weihong

Management World,2016,No. 08

【Abstract】 Bricolage refers to applying combinations of resources at hand to grasp opportunities and solve new problems. Resource-poor firms could only make use of resources at hand to respond to environment changes. Although prior research on entrepreneurship has explored various modes, purposes and objects of bricolage, and emphasized its procedural nature. But these three aspects were examined separately and in isolation. As a result, the dynamic nature of bricolage and the impact of bricolage on the process of responding to environmental changes are overlooked. Nor do we understand how bricolage takes place. Through analyzing an offshore outsourcing vendor that successfully dealt with the drastic decline of overseas market, this case study proposed a three-stage model of bricolage for responding to environment changes, and identified two approaches of bricolage, which were based on prior experience or alignment with strategy, respectively. Theoretical contributions of this study include the elaboration of bricolage’s nature and process, and the expansion of their application to a new context.

Mathematical governance in the rural targeted poverty alleviation

WANG Yulei

Sociological Studies,2016,Vol 31,No. 06

【Abstract】 Mathematical governance in the rural areas is a typical application of technological governance in rural poverty alleviation and development in China. The information competency of the state can be well improved by the localization, systematization and localization of the statistics. Based on the extensive fieldwork, the author finds out that due to the long multilevel contracting production of the mathematical techniques, where the logic and motivations of the agents’ behaviors differ from each other, the reliability of statistics cannot be guaranteed. More importantly, the statistics are the outcome of the state information penetration and administrative intervention, rather than growing from the activities of the grassroots. Thus it is isolated from the local governance process and rural social life.

Large country effect, transaction cost and economic structure: a general equilibrium analysis of rich and poor countries

LI Junhua;OUYANG Yao

Economic Research Journal,2016,Vol 51,No. 10

【Abstract】 Population size and land area are the two most important natural features of large countries. The existence of the large country effect and the condition of its existing can be inferred from the two natural features. The per capita income has a positive relationship with land area, but an inverted U-shaped connection with population size. With land area and other conditions given, if the population size of a country is moderately high, the per capita income in this country will be higher than that in a small country. However, if the population size is too large, the large countries will weaken or reverse its large country effect due to the over-crowded population. It is further showed that the large country effect will possibly be weakened or reversed due to market transaction cost, differences of economic structure and the lower openness between countries. Obviously, it requires certain conditions to form the large country effect. The relationship between country scale and the gap between rich and poor countries is not simply linear.

Multidimensional poverty measurement and influencing factor analysis at the household scale of the ecologically sensitive area: a case study on three villages of Xichuan County in Henan Province

YANG Huimin;LUO Qing;LI Xiaojian;GAO Genghe

Economic Geography,2016,Vol 36,No. 10

【Abstract】 By using the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) method, this paper measures the multidimensional poverty at the household scale through 146 surveyed households of three villages in Xichuan County of Henan Province. The data have seven indexes including three dimensions: education, health and living standard. In the sample, the multidimensional poverty characteristics of rural households are obvious, and there are a large proportion of the households in multidimensional poverty apart from the income dimension. The housing structure, main source of family income and the medical expenditure are the main poverty causes of the family. In addition, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the households with multidimensional poverty characteristics at the individual, family and village levels. The results show that six influencing factors, namely age of householder, education level of householder, number of students, number of migrant workers in the family, the status of water conservancy facilities in the village and the distance from the village to the county town, have a significant impact on the households that are in multidimensional poverty. Finally, as for the multidimensional poverty in these three villages, the implementation of poverty alleviation measures should take health and education of the households into consideration to alleviate and get rid of poverty and improve the living standard gradually.

Chronic multidimensional poverty, inequality and causes of poverty

GUO Xibao;ZHOU Qiang

Economic Research Journal,2016,Vol 51,No. 06

【Abstract】 Using the multidimensional poverty measurement method of Alkire and Foster (2011) and the duration analysis method of Foster (2009), this article constructs the chronic multidimensional poverty index and average poverty duration index for analyzing the incidence of China's chronic multidimensional poverty from both static and dynamic perspectives, with CHNS data as samples. It also explores the macro and micro factors that cause poverty by a multilevel regression model. The results show that chronic multidimensional index can not only measure the incidence of household poverty, but also reflect the average duration of household poverty. Compared with urban households, the incidence of multidimensional poverty is higher in rural households. However, as the duration of poverty prolongs, the average deprivation intensity of poor households for urban and rural areas exhibit an obvious reversal, with poverty incidence for urban households being more severe than that of rural households. The household registration ( hukou) system can account for 43% of the difference of chronic multidimensional poverty incidence and 17% of the difference of inequality of household poverty between urban and rural areas. The study shows that the incidence of chronic multidimensional poverty and its inequality are also affected significantly by factors including the characteristics of heads of households, social relation, household size and structure, and the household registration system.

Elite capture of rural credit market in China: stratified comparison between poor and non-poor counties

WEN Tao;ZHU Jiong;WANG Xiaohua

Economic Research Journal,2016,Vol 51,No. 02

【Abstract】 Providing credit fund to rural residents needs to look into the main body that is usually controlled by elites with low transaction costs. In the long term, the behavior of elites deviates from the overall interests, and “elite capture” mechanism is developed in rural credit market. This paper conducts an empirical research based on the data of the questionnaires survey from 10 provincial administrative regions in China, to study the “elite capture” mechanism of rural credit market via the 2SLS model and IVQR model. The results showed that the “elite capture” mechanism in non-poor counties is significantly different from that of poor counties. “Elite capture” mechanism of rural credit market in poor counties has not been formed completely. In contrast to non-poor counties where “elite capture” mechanism is widely distributed over rural credit market, leading to structure distortions, function dislocation and target deviation. It is necessary to establish an inclusive financial system to break the existing configuration, to ensure fair transfer of funds and to establish a co-development mechanism.

Role of status, causes and labor market policies in working poverty: EU experiences

ZHANG Yinghua

International Economic Review,2016,No. 06

【Abstract】 Working poverty refers to working people unable to lift their families out of poverty. Analysis EU-SILC data shows that the main causes of working poverty include low wages, unstable income, and inadequate employment. The case of the Netherlands can serve as a valuable empirical reference. The Security-Flexibility map shows that since the 1990s, EU labor market flexibility has enhanced while security receded, which has resulted in a higher risk of working poverty among temporary contract workers. By comparing the “flexicurity” policies of the Netherlands and Denmark, we can find that the policy of the Netherlands, which features “normalization of atypical work,” was more favorable to peripheral workers. This article estimates that China has more than 33 million poor workers in the urban area, accounting for 8.4% of total urban employment. It is suggested that China should learn from the Netherlands and reinforce income protection for peripheral workers while promoting flexible employment

Exit strategy in international poverty alleviation: practice in developing countries

FANG Lianquan

International Economic Review,2016,No. 06

【Abstract】 During the past 20 years, conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have been successfully implemented in developing countries, with more and more attention paid to the issue of exit strategy. Cases in Latin America show that the exit mechanism is a long-term strategy that not only targets “program exit,” but also the capacities of poor families to sustain their life in the long run. Exit from poverty is a complex process for which most of the countries have not been well prepared. To implement the exit strategy, both recertification of beneficiaries and income intervention are important. The experience of developed countries in carrying out the Welfare-to-Work (WTW) initiative shows that income interventions based on labor market outcome are more effective in reducing poverty.

Research progress and prospect of new-type urbanization and development-oriented poverty alleviation

GE Dazhuan;LONG Hualou;TU Shuangshuang;LI Yurui

Economic Geography,2016,Vol 36,No. 04

【Abstract】 Against the background of new-type urbanization, development-oriented poverty alleviation is facing an important development opportunity. A study about the effects and corresponding countermeasures of new-type urbanization on development-oriented poverty alleviation has important significance. This paper reviews the effects of urbanization on the economic development, income gaps, employment structure and population flow, infrastructure and public services in the poverty-stricken areas, as well as the relationship between new-type urbanization and development-oriented poverty alleviation in the aspects of citizenization of rural migrants, integrated development of urban and rural areas, optimizing spatial pattern of cities, towns and counties and coordinated development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. Then, the research progress of the above two aspects is briefly discussed. Accordingly, a research route based on “quantitative evaluation–problem study and judge–theory analysis–model establishing–model selection–optimizing regulation” is proposed to study the mutual feedback mechanism of new-type urbanization and development-oriented poverty alleviation. The major urgent research directions are put forward as follows: (1) strengthening the research on quantitative measurement and problem interpretation about the effects of new-type urbanization on the development of poverty-stricken areas; (2) building a core system and probing into the mutual feedback mechanism about new-type urbanization and development-oriented poverty alleviation; and (3) concluding typical regional models that the new-type urbanization promotes development-oriented poverty alleviation.

Poverty alleviation in China: past, present and future

YANG Yiyong;Wu Xiangxue

Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016,No. 05

【Abstract】 Since its founding, the People’s Republic of China has gone through two stages of poverty alleviation in planned economy and socialist market economy, and made continuously strategic adjustments to the objective, target and measures of poverty alleviation according to the evolvement of the meaning of poverty and poverty alleviation practice, in order to solve the inherent deficiencies and acquired imbalance in the poverty alleviation process to gradually improve China’s poverty reduction governance system and ability in poverty control. At present, in order to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects, China needs to, in light of the five development concepts, keep creating new poverty alleviation governance mechanisms, hold onto the governance mode of targeted poverty alleviation and coordinate multiple poverty alleviation relations, to form synergies against poverty, carry out green poverty reduction, embark on green development path, improve opening and cooperation, and ultimately make joint efforts to achieve joint construction and sharing. To solve the problem of relative poverty in the future, combining poverty alleviation by relief and poverty alleviation by provision of services is an advisable governance method.

Poverty and poverty alleviation in Latin America: the multi-dimensional perspective

WU Sunpeijing;ZHAO Xuemei

Journal of Latin American Studies,2016,Vol 38,No. 03

【Abstract】 The concept, poverty, is evolving and deepening. At the beginning of the 21st century, Latin American and Caribbean countries began to study the poverty problem from the perspective of multi-dimensional poverty. By observing and assessing the multi-dimensional poverty based on the measurement method of multi-dimensional poverty, we find that multi-dimensional poverty is noteworthy in Latin American countries. Multi-dimensional poverty is more serious especially in Central America and its neighborhood but quite gentle in the South American countries with sound economic development. However, in general, the poor from all countries are all deprived of to various extents in monetary income, living condition, education, social security and so on, which leads to various causes for multi-dimensional poverty. Thanks to the in-depth research on the concept, multi-dimensional poverty, the direction of poverty alleviation policies of Latin American countries has changed. Latin American countries have promulgated conditional cash transfer payment programs to break the intergenerational inheritance of poverty and improve the human capital of the poor. By such programs, the multi-dimensional poverty of all Latin American countries has been improved. Though the poverty alleviation policies have achieved positive effects, challenges still exist on policy formulation, estimation, implementation as well as related supporting facilities and services.

Multidimensional poverty measurement and decomposition of households in poor areas: based on the China rural poverty monitoring household data in 2010

YANG Long;WANG Sangui

Population Journal,2015,Vol 37,No. 02

【Abstract】 Multidimensional poverty measurement can reflect the poverty status comprehensively. This paper measures and decomposes multidimensional poverty of poor areas in rural China. We find that the multidimensional poverty index is not consistent with its contribution rate because of the population weight. Low-income households undergo more serious multidimensional poverty, but poverty line’s rising benefits more for the lower-middle income households. Compared with national factors, terrain factors influence the multidimensional poverty. Dimensional decomposition shows that drinking water rather than income is the most severe problem the households faced.

Poverty Reduction and Governability:The Brazilian Case

Su Zhenxing

Journal of Latin American Studies,2015,Vol 37,No. 01

【Abstract】 In the mid-1990 s,while seeking to enhance economic growth rate,the Cardoso government of Brazil initiated a social reform to tackle deeply rooted problems of unequal income distribution and social polarization.It took a variety of measures proved to be effective to improve social conditions.Based on the achievement,the Lula government continued to implement ambitious anti-poverty programs on condition that long-term sustainable growth would not be impaired.As a result,there has been a marked decline in inequality for the country.The social policy in Brazil is aimed at gaining an inclusive development,featured by top-level design,sustainability and policy-legitimacy and fully reflecting Brazil's improved govemability.

Education level, outgoing condition of family members and family economic development in poverty-stricken rural area: based on the investigation in Yan Mountains-Taihang Mountains and Heilonggang Basin in Hebei Province

WANG Jinying;WEI Huijing

Population Journal,2015,Vol 37,No. 05

【Abstract】 The problem of poverty, especially in rural China, has been the focus of attention of Chinese government and society. With the economic development and deepening urbanization, the educational level of people in poverty-stricken rural areas has increased greatly, and a large number of working age population have gone out as migrant workers and business people in order to get rid of poverty and realize individual development. This article conducted qualitative analysis and study on the family members’ education level and the effect of going out as migrant workers on family economic development by using the data of survey conducted in the two poverty-stricken and contiguous areas of Yan Mountains-Taihang Mountains and Heilonggang Basin in Hebei Province. Empirical research found that education level of family members has a significant influence on family economic conditions but the endogenous problems exist. Going out as migrant workers also has an important influence on family economic conditions, however, it is only a means to increase family income rather than the fundamental way to get rid of poverty and become better off.

Pollution, health and inequality : escape from the environment-health-poverty trap

QI Yu;LU Hongyou

Management World,2015,No. 09

【Abstract】 An overlapping generations model was constructed in this study to explore the relationship among environment, health and inequality. Then the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data (2006) about individuals’ features and data of city-level pollution were used in a hierarchical generalized linear model and it was found that pollution is an important transmission mechanism influencing health inequality. Since people with different socioeconomic status vary in the ability of avoiding environmental risks, differentiated exposure levels and health effects caused by environment pollution will become a new source triggering health and social inequality. Hence this study adopted the epidemiological method calculating the health burden of pollution to estimate the health and economic burdens of air pollution and their regional distribution as well as contribution to inter-regional inequality in 112 major cities in China from 2003 to 2010. The results show that the more backward the economy, the heavier the pollution’s health and economic burdens. Moreover, a clear regressive distribution was found. In addition, it was also found that pollution’s health burdens caused an increase of 1.33% to 9.919% in inter-regional real economic inequality. Using simultaneous equations and the panel data from 1998 to 2011, this study further verified and explained that pollution could influence intra-regional and urban-rural inequality through affecting health. Given pollution’s close connection with poverty and the grim pollution situation, China should be alert to the environment-health-poverty trap in the process of industrialization and urbanization.

Water resources carrying capacity assessment and development mode design of small towns in northwest China: a case study of Hongsipu Area

HUANG Lei;SHAO Chaofeng;JU Meiting;GUAN Yang;BAI Xue

Ecological Economy,2015,Vol 31,No. 05

【Abstract】 Northwest China is short of water and the ecological environment is fragile, using water resources efficiently and improving the carrying capacity is an important measure for the construction of beautiful Northwest. This paper takes Hongsipu Area as the research area, and uses the mature population forecast model and WRCC model to assess the maximum carrying capacity of water resources in conventional development mode, coordinated development mode and ecological construction mode. The results show that the WRCC of coordinated development mode is 8.33% and 6.25% higher than the conventional development mode and ecological construction mode respectively by 2020. It turns out that the coordinated development mode is the optimal choice for sustainable development of Hongsipu Area under the constraint of water resources. Finally, this paper puts forward some countermeasures such as optimizing the structure of industrial and agricultural production, building of water-saving society and intensifying water management.

Analysis on the basic forms and processes of ecological poverty resulted from industrialization


Ecological Economy,2015,Vol 31,No. 05

【Abstract】 Ecological poverty has resulted from natural and man-made reasons. In the past 20 years, man-made ecological poverty is mainly industrialization action from governments and corporates. There are three basic processes and forms during the industrialization leading to ecological poverty. First, the industrialization leads to land occupation and degradation; second, it leads to geological disasters; third, it causes pollution to expand. These forms affect farmers' productions and livings, resulting in lower income and lower quality of life, and poverty status. In western ecological reserve regions, the governments at all levels should raise awareness, strengthen supervision, and formulate appropriate policy measures to alleviate the tensions connections' between industrialization and ecological poverty.

Poverty condition and characteristics in China: a re-analysis after the adjustment of equivalence scale


Management World,2015,No. 10

【Abstract】 This paper uses data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2010) and adopts the new methods of family equivalence scale adjustment to re-measure the extent of the Chinese poverty, thereby building a complete method to measure China’s poverty. The data are divided into subgroups to be examined for China’s structural poverty characteristics in detail, analyzing the factors contributing to poverty by using the logit and tobit models. We found that when measuring poverty in China, it is necessary to carry out equivalence scale adjustment in accordance with the family scale and family composition. The poverty rate falls to 5.8 percent after adjustment, which is nearly half the percentage before the adjustment. Much existing literature does not consider the conditions such as family economic resource sharing. Consequently, the poverty rate is overestimated in China. Moreover, the data analysis substantiates the income’s essential role in helping a family out of poverty. The more employed family members are and the better their quality is, the less likely it is for the family to fall into poverty.

Suffering from both poverty and instability: the establishment and income allocation in public sector

QIAN Xianhang;CAO Chunfang;CAO Chunfang,

Economic Research Journal,2015,Vol 50,No. 07

【Abstract】 This paper verifies the role of establishment for individuals in public sector. Using the data from China Household Finance Survey, we examine the difference of income, labor intensity, social security and subjective attitude between regular workers and contracted workers in public sector. And we further investigate the role of Administrative Establishment (AE) and Public Institution Establishment (PIE). The results indicate that compared with regular workers, contracted workers have less income, work for longer time and are more difficult to enjoy retirement pay and housing accumulation funds. Moreover, contracted workers also have lower risk preference and sense of happiness in subjective attitude. And the main reason of people engaged in contracted workers is to exchange current low-income for retirement security in future. The further research shows that there are no significant differences between AE and PIE except the former has advantages in income and housing accumulation funds, which highlights the common value of establishment. The conclusions of this paper will provide empirical support for deepening reform on organization establishment and income allocation in China’s public sector.

Governmental transfer payment and multidimensional poverty of senior citizens


China Industrial Economics,2015,No. 11

【Abstract】 This paper, using the panel data of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CFPS) in 2010 and 2012 and the Alkire Foster (AF) multidimensional poverty measurement method, explores the multidimensional poverty of senior citizens, which includes consumption, health, and confidence in China. We evaluate the effect of subsistence allowance, resident endowment insurance including new rural endowment insurance, urban endowment insurance, and urban and rural endowment insurance by using the propensity score matching. The results show that the deprivation of consumption has declined for both urban and rural senior citizens, while the deprivation of health has increased. The deprivation of confidence has declined for urban senior citizens, but increased for rural ones. Rural senior citizens’ multidimensional poverty is more serious than that of urban ones. The proportion of households deprived in one indicator is up to 35% in 2012, although multidimensional poverty declines over time. The largest contributors to the multidimensional poverty are the confidence and health dimensions. The effects of subsistence allowance, resident endowment insurance on poverty have features of heterogeneity for urban and rural senior citizens. Subsistence allowance and resident endowment insurance have little effect on urban senior citizens’ poverty. Subsistence allowance has a positive effect on rural senior citizens’ poverty. Resident endowment insurance reduces rural senior citizens’ multidimensional poverty significantly.

Studies on employment quality of working poverty group in Northeast China: investigation from Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang

YIN Haijie;WANG Yijia

Chinese Journal of Population Science,2015,No. 03

【Abstract】 Through the quantitative analysis of employment quality of the working poverty group in Northeast China, this paper finds that the employment quality of the entire group is in a low state, and that they have the characteristics of informal employment accounting for a major part, absence of social insurance, long labor hours, low income, and job solidification. The result of the path model shows that factors of individuals are important ones affecting the quality of employment of working poverty people while the influences of a family of origin are very feeble. This paper holds that while paying attention to employment rate, the relevant departments should improve the employment quality of the working poverty group, regulate labor contract system, establish a sound social insurance system for such people and strengthen their employment competiveness.

An empirical analysis on technical efficiency of grain production and its influencing factors from the perspective of poverty—based on the EBM-Goprobit model

GAO Ming;MA Ling

China Rural Survey,2015,No. 04

【Abstract】 This paper used the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013, adopted the latest EBM and Goprobit models in the DEA method, classified 30 provinces (cities or regions) into five categories according to the occurrence of poverty, analyzed technical efficiency of grain production in all categories of poor areas, and further found out the influencing factors. The conclusions were as follows. First, technical efficiency of grain production in poor areas had been the main factor restricting the increase in China's grain production since 2000; second, in relatively poor areas, the contribution rate of science and technology to the process of grain production was lower than the national average; third, the improvement of human capital was beneficial to poor areas for promoting technical efficiency of grain production; agricultural subsidies could distort technical efficiency of grain production in both poor and non-poor areas, but had promoting effects on very poor areas.

Land reform in Mexico: an evolution based on poverty index

LIU Xuedong

Journal of Latin American Studies,2015,Vol 37,No. 06

【Abstract】 A new farm law was enacted based on the amendment of Article 27 of the Constitution in Mexico in 1992. It has put an end to the land distribution system that had lasted for nearly eighty years, removed the restrictions on collective land ownership and granted partial land privatization. The new land system was designed to attract investment in agriculture, and accelerate its development and contribute to help the famers out of poverty and the countryside. By comparing rural and urban poverty index averages and analyzing changes of poverty status at the state level, the paper made an assessment to the effect of the land system reform in 1992–2014 on rural poverty reduction. It is revealed that there was not a clear line in the cause-and-effect relationship between land system and poverty index in spite of a certain correlation between them. It can be concluded that the role of land system reform in increasing farmers’ reform and improving poverty reduction in the rural area is insignificant and has so far not met the goal specified by the government. In addition, poverty is a complex system of problem, and the land system reform, in tackling poverty in Mexico needs other supporting measures, including effective policy of agricultural development and macro-control regulations. Only in this way can the economy develop in a comprehensively normal and stable way, and the issue of poverty would be resolved thoroughly. In view of this, it is necessary to further analyze the internal mechanism of rural poverty in a bid to find the cause that prevents eradication of rural poverty and farmers’ prosperity.

?Multidimensional poverty measure and spatial pattern of China’s rural residents

YANG Zhen;JIANG Qi;LIU Huimin;WANG Xiaoxia

Economic Geography,2015,Vol 35,No. 12

【Abstract】 Using the evidence of life consumption of rural residents in China, this study establishes a multidimensional poverty measure model to empirically analyze the spatial pattern of poverty and its causes, based on the Engel’s law and an extended linear expenditure system model. The findings are as follows. (1) The rural residents in China have large discrepancies in the basic needs along eight consumption dimensions, with higher needs in “necessity demand” and lower needs in “developmental demand”; the actual expenditure of all dimensions is positively related to income growth. (2) In each dimension, the actual expenditure is generally higher than the expenditure for basic demand. Relative poverty index varies across different dimensions and regions. The poverty level of eastern provinces is generally the lowest, lower than that of the central provinces; and the poverty level of western areas is generally the highest. (3) In regions with lower education level and higher agricultural economic conditions, the poverty index is higher. The increase in farmers’ income, the switch to non-agriculture income structure, and the increase of per capita cultivated land may lead to lower poverty index. To a certain extent, natural disasters increase farmers’ opportunities to go out to earn non-agricultural income, hence reducing the regional poverty index.

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