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Measurement of agricultural carbon emission and pressure of emission reduction in main grain-producing areas of China

HE Huishuang;FU Bangjie

Ecological Economy,2019,Vol 35,No. 11

【Abstract】 Based on the classical IPCC carbon emission calculation theory, the agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain producing areas were calculated from three aspects: agricultural material input, rice cultivation, and animal rumination. By using grey prediction model and low carbon target scenario, we calculated and compared the agricultural carbon emissions and emission reduction pressure. The results showed that the total agricultural carbon emissions in main grain producing areas tended to increase, but the intensity of carbon emissions was declining. The source structure of agricultural carbon emissions ranked as agricultural material input, animal rumination, and rice planting. The low-carbon target scenario based on carbon intensity reduction targets still exerts pressure on agricultural carbon emission reduction in main grain-producing areas, especially in Inner Mongolia, Jilin, and Liaoning. Based on this, we should reasonably reduce the input of agricultural materials, replace chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers, promote the application of energy saving and emission reduction technology, rationally adjust livestock breeding mode, and improve farmers’ low carbon awareness.

The evolution of grain procurement and storage policies in major countries (regions) and its enlightenment

PU Mingzhe;LYU Xinye;ZHONG Yu

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 11

【Abstract】 The grain reserve is a regulator for economic and social development. This study reviewed the evolution context and motivation of grain procurement and storage policies in the United States, the European Union, Japan, India and other countries and regions, and found that there were certain regularities behind the differences in their procurement and storage evolution paths. In the early days, all countries faced the problem of food shortage or relatively weak agriculture. The price-linked procurement and storage policy was a “sharp weapon” to improve farmers’ enthusiasm for production, stabilize market fluctuations and ensure food security. With the improvement of agricultural production level, all countries have experienced painful periods of overproduction, high inventories, rising costs and trade disputes, and have been forced to enter the adjustment period of procurement and storage policies. Influenced by the difference in risks of tightening per capita agricultural resources and grain supply and demand, the adjustment paths of procurement and storage policies in various countries were further divided into two categories: the bottom of storage (US and Europe) and the stable storage (Japan and India). China’s grain procurement and storage policy is in a painful period and a reform window period. Combined with international evolution experience and China’s reality, future procurement and storage policy adjustments can consider optimizing strategic reserves, shrinking interventionist procurement and storage, and developing cooperative reserves between the government and the people.

Prevalence, antimicrobial susceptibility, and genetic characteristics of Staphylococcus aureus from retail ready-to-eat foods and vegetables in some regions of China

RONG Dongli ;WU Qingping ;WU Shi ;ZHANG Jumei ;XU Mingfang

Acta Microbiologica Sinica,2018,Vol 58,No. 02

【Abstract】 [Objective] To investigate the prevalence, antimicrobial susceptibility, and genetic characteristics of Staphylococcus aureus from ready-to-eat foods (stewed meat, roast, salad and pasteurized milk) and vegetables from 15 representative cities of China and to provide baseline information for effective tracing S. aureus source and controlling food contamination. [Methods] All samples were subjected to qualitative and most probable number (MPN) analysis for S. aureus according to the National Food Safety Standard-Food Microbiological Examination: S. aureus. Antimicrobial susceptibility of all isolates was evaluated using the Kirbye-Bauer disk diffusion and mecA-positive isolates was obtained by PCR. The sequence types of S. aureus were performed via multilocus sequence typing (MLST). [Results] In all the 540 food samples, 9.3% (50/540) were tested positive for S. aureus, of which the most polluted food was stewed meat (16.3%, 30/184), followed by roast (9.2%, 6/65), and vegetable showed the lowest prevalence (4.0%, 6/150). Most probable number (MPN) analysis showed that 62.0% samples ranged from 0.3 to 1 MPN/g, and three samples exceeded 110 MPN/g. A total of 82.0% isolates were resistant to ampicillin and penicillin G, and 64.0% isolates were multi-drug resistant. In addition, the mecA-positive isolates both belonged to the SCCmec IVa subtype using staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCC mec) typing. Furthermore, 14 sequence types (STs) were obtained by MLST, including two novel STs (ST3595 and ST3847). [Conclusion] The general multi-drug resistance exhibited by S. aureus was still the most serious issue of common concern, which posed a health risk for consumers. In addition, the antimicrobial susceptibility of S. aureus was highly associated with STs. Therefore, it is necessary to provide scientific data for further analysis of epidemic trends and risk assessment of bacteria prevalent in foods.

Evaluation and analysis on the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural eco-efficiency of major grain production areas

YU Ting;HAO Xinbo

Ecological Economy,2018,Vol 34,No. 09

【Abstract】 This paper used SBM-undesirable model to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural eco-efficiency of 13 major grain production areas based on the data from 2003 to 2015. On this basis, we decomposed efficiency, analyzed the causes of efficiency change, and then put forward the path of efficiency improvement. Results show the following aspects. (1) Agricultural eco-efficiency in major grain production areas has a general trend of improvement and spatial heterogeneity. Agricultural pollution has a negative impact on the improvement of agricultural eco-efficiency. DEA efficient area shifts from northwest and southwest to northeast and north of China. (2) The efficiency decomposition shows that the change of agricultural eco-efficiency is mainly due to the scale efficiency from 2003 to 2011, and the combined effect of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency from 2012 to 2015. (3) The main reason of the loss of agricultural eco-efficiency lies in excessive resource input and environmental pollutants emissions; and there are differences in efficiency improvement paths among the non-DEA efficient grain production areas. Optimizing resource allocation and reducing environmental negative effects are the effective ways to improve agricultural eco-efficiency and achieve sustainable development of agriculture.

Antibiotic resistance in environment of animal farms

SHI Xiaomin ;WANG Shaolin

Chinese Journal of Biotechnology,2018,Vol 34,No. 08

【Abstract】 World Health Organization has recognized that antibiotic resistance is one of the serious threats to public health and food safety in the 21st century. Recently, the antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) has been widely considered as a new pollutant. Now, many studies suggest that animal farm is one of the major reservoirs of ARGs. Antibiotic resistant bacteria and ARGs enter the environment along with animal excrement, accelerating the spread of ARGs in the environment. In the livestock and poultry breeding environment, ARGs and antibiotic resistant bacteria could be transmitted to humans through the food chain, water or air, posing a great threat to public health. This review highlights the prevalence of antibiotic resistant bacteria and ARGs in livestock-breeding environment, the retention and spread of ARGs and the method used to study the antibiotic resistance, which will provide certain support for risk assessment of antimicrobial resistance in food animal breeding environment.

Substantial increase in China’s imported food variety: explanation from income distribution overlap

SUN Lin;HU Hanyue

Finance & Trade Economics,2018,Vol 39,No. 08

【Abstract】 In recent years, China’s food imports have increased substantially. This is a new issue that cannot be fully explained only from the perspective of supply side, and a satisfactory explanation cannot be given from the perspective of agricultural trade liberalization. In this paper, the dynamic panel system GMM estimation was applied in the empirical analysis to explore the impact of the overlapping income distributions between China and import source countries on the varieties of China’s imported food. The study found that under the premise of controlling per capita income in China, the degree of overlap in the distribution of income between China and the country of importation has a significant positive impact on the diversification of China’s imported food. In addition, the study also found that the impact of the degree of overlap in the distribution of income between China and the import partner on the number of varieties of China’s imported food largely differed from country to country. Although Chinese consumers prefer to imported food products from developed countries, the increase in the overlapping degree of income distribution has a greater impact on the growth of the variety of imported food from developing countries than that from developed countries. This paper proposes creating conditions for importing more varieties of food from countries which have a high degree of income distribution overlap with China, and make a point of importing high-quality food from developed countries and importing varieties of food from developing countries.

Land operation scale of grain production family farms in North China Plain: an example from Henan, a major grain production province

GUAN Fuxin

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 10

【Abstract】 Based on the characteristics of family farms, this paper constructs an analytical framework to investigate the land scale of grain production family farms. The empirical research is supported and verified by cost and benefit data of grain production from 414 grain producers and 50 family farms in Henan Province. The findings show that the lower and upper limits of the scale of land managed by family farms are determined by the proportion of family agricultural income and the proportion of household labor, respectively. The results based on the data analysis show that land rent reduces their agricultural income and drives grain farms to raise the lower limit of scale, and that the seasonality of grain production activities result in difficulties to form the upper limit. With large population and relatively little arable land, it is difficult for family farms to develop in North China Plain. The scale of land managed by grain production family farms is mainly influenced by the income from grain production. The low income from grain production drives family farms to expand the scale of land management, leading to the emergence of non-food production and corporatization. The research proposes that increasing the income of grain production per unit area and promoting full employment of family labor force are important conditions for the development of grain production family farms.

Puzzle of China’s grain trade deficit: variety, price or volume

SUN Zhilu;LI Xiande

Journal of International Trade,2018,No. 09

【Abstract】 Based on the data from UN Comtrade Database from 1995 to 2016, this paper used the trade margins decomposition methodology developed by and Klenow (2005) to measure trade margins of China’s grain exports and imports, and then for deeper exploration of structural characteristics of China’s grain trade deficit, it conducted comparative analysis on the effect mechanism of trade variety, trade price and trade volume on the evolution of China’s grain trade before and after WTO accession. The results indicated that China’s grain trade showed variety deficit, price deficit and volume surplus before WTO accession, and variety surplus, price surplus and volume deficit after WTO accession. Before China joined WTO, its grain exports increased along extensive and intensive margins, and grain imports increased along intensive margin. After WTO accession, China’s grain exports have being declining along extensive and intensive margins, and grain imports have been increasing along extensive and intensive margins. On the whole, both of China’s grain exports and imports mainly change along the intensive margin, and the change in grain trade volume is the main cause for the change in grain exports and imports.

Effect of agricultural mechanization development on grain planting area in China

YANG Jin;WU Bi;JIN Songqing ;CHEN Zhigang

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 03

【Abstract】 This paper examines the impact of the rapid development of agricultural mechanization in China on the sown area of grain. The study focuses on two questions, namely, whether the use of agricultural mechanization services affects the grain production structure, and whether the unit cost of mechanization services affects the grain production structure. It finds that the use of agricultural mechanization services has no significant impact on the grain production structure adjustment, but the rising unit cost of mechanization services has a positive impact on the structure adjustment. In addition, for households located in plain areas, the rising unit cost of mechanization services is found to weaken the negative impact of mechanization on the structure adjustment.

Analysis on the coordination degree of grain production pattern and income level in main grain producing areas of China

QI Heng;WU Ling

Economic Geography,2017,Vol 37,No. 06

【Abstract】 By using the analytical method of geographic concentration degree and historic data in main grain producing areas in 1978–2014, this article constructs CGR and CGI index to conduct analysis on coordination degree of grain production, local fiscal revenue and farmers’ income. Results indicate that in over three decades during 1978–2014, both coordination degrees of “grain production and fiscal revenue” and “grain production and farmers’ income” turn better. Measured from spatial distribution, CGR and CGI indicate that geographic distribution on coordination degree of “grain production and fiscal revenue” and “grain production and farmers’ income” in main grain producing areas shows big alterations. As an emerging grain producing area, Northeast China converts from extreme coordinated situation to incongruency, but eastern and southern provinces show a reverse trend. Measured from the time trend, the largest provinces on grain production are growing more incongruent, for both CGR and CGI indicate that largest grain producing provinces such as Heilongjiang and Henan fall into the most uncoordinated areas. Some littoral advanced provinces in the east and south show improvement on coordination degree.

The spillover effect of agricultural mechanization on grain output in China: from the perspective of cross-regional mechanization services

WU Junqian;FANG Shile;LI Gucheng ;XU Guangtong

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 06

【Abstract】 This paper used the spatial Durbin model to explore the direct influence and spatial spillover effect of agricultural mechanization on the grain output with provincial-level panel data in China during 1978–2012. The main findings were as the follows. First, there was a spatial spillover effect of agricultural mechanization development on the grain output. The agricultural mechanization levels of other regions had a positive effect on the grain output of the local region. Second, from the perspective of the time dimension, the spatial spillover effect had become more significant since 1999, thus verifying the evolution history of cross-regional agricultural mechanization services in China. Third, from the perspective of the spatial dimension, the spatial spillover effect mainly occurred in regions with different latitudes, and this effect was insignificant within regions with the same latitude, which corresponded to the operational mechanism of cross-latitude agricultural machinery services in China.

Sino-Kazakhstan grain trade and cooperation: status quo and obstacles

ZHANG Qingping;ZHU Jing

Russian Central Asian & East European Market,2017,No. 01

【Abstract】 China’s import of grain from Kazakhstan is characterized by small volumes, instability and the inefficient use of grain market resources in Kazakhstan despite the fact that the basis for grain trade and cooperation is favorable. Analyzing major obstacles to grain trade and cooperation, this paper was concluded with policy suggestions against the background of constructing the Belt and Road Initiative, based on a study on the status quo of Kazakhstan’s grain production, consumption, and trade as well as Sino-Kazakhstan grain trade and cooperation.

Potential impacts of reforming China’s floor price policies on grains *

CAO Hui;ZHANG Yumei;SUN Hao

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 11

【Abstract】 The Chinese government has started to adjust floor price policies on grains in 2017. This paper discusses this policy reform and analyzes its potential impacts on grain markets and farmers’ income. It applies a Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model and simulates different policy scenarios under open market conditions, including the 2017 rice floor price decreases, a range of hypothetical floor price levels reflecting production costs and profit margins, and the elimination of all floor prices. The model makes it possible to evaluate the potential impacts of these various scenarios on grain production, consumption, prices, and farmers’ income. The results show that the 2017 decrease in the floor price on rice may have a relatively small impact on China’s grain markets. The impacts of a slightly decrease in floor price on wheat may also be limited. However, a sharp reduction (more than 10%) or even the elimination of floor prices would generate a substantial shock on grain markets, causing a decrease in both grain production and farmers’ income in the main production areas. Therefore, the study suggests implementing floor price policy reforms in a gradual way and exploring long-term mechanisms to protect farmers’ income positions.

Influence and constraints of the development of the farmland transfer market on grain production

XU Zhigang;TAN Xin;ZHENG Xuyuan;LU Wuyi

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 09

【Abstract】 This paper analyzed the influence and mechanisms of the development of farmland transfer market on grain production, especially under three different constraints of endowment of cultivated land resources, agricultural market capacity and the degree of difficulty in factor substitution caused by topographic features. The results showed that the development of farmland transfer market has caused a decline both in the acreage of grain and its proportion in the crop acreage, which generates harmful effects on grain production. However, the negative effects are different under different constraints. The negative effects would be weakened in different degrees in remote areas and plain areas which are abundant in land resources and suitable for mechanization. Therefore, in further promoting China’s farmland transfer, in addition to food security, more attention needs to be paid to the constraints that farmers are facing in the adjustment of production structure, such as resources endowment, agricultural market capacity and the degree of difficulty in factor substitution.

Has farmers’ income growth increased their formal credit availability?

PENG Keqiang;ZHANG Lin;QIU Yan

Finance & Trade Economics,2017,Vol 38,No. 06

【Abstract】 Based on the systematic survey data of peasant households in 32 agricultural counties of 16 agricultural cities in Sichuan province, this paper employs Tobit and Probit models to empirically investigate the effect of farmers’ income growth on their formal credit availability in major grain producing areas in Sichuan province. Following this view, we test the economic attributes of peasant households in traditional agricultural areas in Sichuan. The study built on the full sample suggests that farmers’ income growth is helpful to increase the formal credits available to peasant households, but it fails to effectively alleviate formal credit constraints faced by peasant households, and even aggravates the constraints. Further, the quantile regression results show that only high-income peasant households can significantly acquire more formal credits, and only those middle-income peasant households may be subject to greater formal credit constraints. Apparently, low-income peasant households are close to peasants focusing on survival needs, while those with middle- and high-income are closer to rational peasants. In the process of advancing rural financial reform and institutional innovation, China should attach great importance to and earnestly do a good job in the credit services oriented to middle-income peasant households.

An analysis on the linkage effect of domestic and international grain price based on overseas farmland investment

KE Shangan;LU Xinhai;GE Kun;LI Huifang

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 12

【Abstract】 Based on the monthly prices of domestic and international wheat, maize, soybean, and rice and the scale of overseas farmland investment in 2000–2016, the study used an asymmetric error correction model to analyze the asymmetry of domestic and international grain price and compared the effects of overseas farmland investment on the asymmetry of price transmission. The results showed a linkage effect of the average price fluctuation of wheat, maize, soybean, and rice in China with the international average price. Domestic grain prices appeared more sensitive to the increase in the international food price. With the introduction of overseas cultivated land investment, the scale of overseas farmland investment had a significant buffer effect on the transmission of domestic and international food prices. Therefore, a full use of the linkage effect of domestic and international grain prices and active participation in overseas investment in farmland can be important means for China’s food security.

Do subsidies make up for the loss of grain production efficiency?

GAO Ming;SONG Hongyuan;Michael CARTER

Management World,2017,No. 09

【Abstract】 This paper adopted the micro-data of National Rural Fixed Observation Point from 2003 to 2014 and used the latest technology epsilon based measure model of data envelopment analysis to dissect the loss of wheat production efficiency in Henan Province from 2009 to 2014 based on the dynamic asset poverty theory. Then, it estimated the impact of agricultural subsidies on the lost production efficiency with the Heckman sample selection model. Finally, it made robustness test on the research results through instrumental variables and multiple estimation methods. As revealed in research, Henan Province suffered severe loss of wheat production efficiency from 2009 to 2014 despite a year-by-year increase; agricultural subsidies motivated peasant households who were restrained by assets to choose mode of production with high productivity, thereby making up the loss in grain production efficiency; agricultural subsidies are critical for wheat production, especially the direct ones; subsidies for purchasing superior crop varieties reduce productivity loss of peasant households with the wheat sown area less than 6 mu, while general subsidies for agricultural supplies exert significant influence on peasant households with the wheat sown area greater than 6 mu. In light of that, this paper proposes relevant measures and suggestions.

Historical spatial data visualization and economic history study: case of grain market in modern China

WANG Zhe

Researches in Chinese Economic History,2017,No. 05

【Abstract】 This paper reviews the history of spatial data visualization in the discipline of economic history and explores its current possibilities. Grain price in the Qing Dynasty is used as an example, employing reliable data in the empire to analyze the spatial distribution of grain price. Through GIS software, four spatial gradients were recognized in southern China as an effect of market integration. With the publication of the Chinese Maritime Customs data, more trade information is now available. The origin-destination data can help us to quantitatively reconstruct the grain trade network in modern China for the first time.

The influence of climate change on grain production of China: based on the empirical analysis on the county-level panel data

CHEN Shuai;XU Jintao;ZHANG Haipeng

Chinese Rural Economy,2016,No. 05

【Abstract】 Based on the data on the crop yields, irrigation, meteorology and social economy on county-level in China between 1996 and 2009, and combining them with the growth cycles of crops in different areas, this paper investigated the effects of climate change on production of rice and wheat in China by using methods in economics. It was found that there was a nonlinear relationship between the influence of climatic variables including temperature, precipitation and sunshine, and the per-unit-area yields of rice and wheat in China with increases first followed by decreases and there was an optimal point. It was expected that by the middle of this century, climatic conditions would be beyond the optimal inflection point and have an obvious negative influence on production of rice and wheat in China. Moreover, due to the existence of the nonlinear relationship, long-term harm of climate change would increase dramatically in the future. By the end of this century, climate change would lead to a reduction of 2%–16% in the per-unit-area rice yield, and a reduction of 3%–19% in the per-unit-area wheat yield in China. This means that we need to make more active and effective climate policies in order to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on grain production in China effectively.

Research on the sustainability of cultivated land use in China: based on grain productivity

SUN Ruomei

Ecological Economy,2016,Vol 32,No. 12

【Abstract】 This paper starts with definition of the sustainability of cultivated land use. We research on the evaluation of productive sustainability of cultivated land by the measure of comparable coefficient of grain productivity and the standardized score system, and also on the evaluation of ecological sustainability of cultivated land through adjusting the comparable coefficients and standardized score by using the excess fertilization of unit land as an ecological factor. We base our research on the data and achieve the measure of sustainability, with the time frame from base period and report period and the measure in space of provincial regions. We have two main findings. Firstly, country wide productive sustainability of cultivated land is increasing, as measured by the grain productivity of cultivated land, but after adjusting by using the excess fertilization of unit land as an ecological factor, the ecological sustainability is significantly lower than the productive sustainability. Secondly, there are substantial regional differences in ecological sustainability and productive sustainability, that is, the sustainability of cultivated land use is more stable and of higher growth for areas of major grain production than the average of the country, indicating that the diversity of cultivated land protection policy is helpful for the stability and improvement of sustainability of cultivated land use

?Changing mechanism of China’s grain production from the perspective of peasant’s decision-making

CHEN Yangfen;WANG Guogang;WANG Lijuan

Economic Geography,2016,Vol 36,No. 07

【Abstract】 Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between peasant’s decision-making and the cost-benefit of grain production, this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal change of China’s grain production by using panel data model with provincial data during 2004–2013. It shows that there is a relative increase of sown area of grain in the North and the central region, and a relative reduction in the eastern region, the western region, and the South. Therefore, there really exists the phenomenon of “northward and central shift” in China’s grain production. Among all the influencing factors, labor input is still an important factor in maintaining grain production, while large scale non-agricultural employment has a significantly negative effect especially for the eastern and central regions. Compared with net profit, cash income plays a stronger role in affecting planting decision. The increase of grain yield does not necessarily increase the sown area of grain crops, while the larger the existing planting scale, the more perfect the infrastructure, and the stronger will of peasants to plant grain. Due to difference in endowment, non-agricultural employment, planting structure, infrastructure and some other factors, there exist some differences in the influencing factors among regions.

New challenges of agricultural environment for profits of grain production—a case study on winter wheat planting affected by surface ozone pollution

YANG Yongbing;YI Fujin;HU Hao

Chinese Rural Economy,2016,No. 09

【Abstract】 This paper used the production data on winter wheat and data on the concentration of surface ozone pollution of 733 major winter wheat-producing counties in 13 provinces (cities) in China in 2006, 2008 and 2010, and employed the profit model of wheat planting in trans-log form to analyze the effects of ozone pollution on profits got from planting winter wheat in China. The results showed that the increase in the concentration of surface ozone had significantly adverse effects on both yields and profits of planting winter wheat. Every one unit increase in the mean concentration of ozone would reduce the winter wheat yield by 808.1 thousand tons in China, resulting in a loss of CNY 617 million for farmer households’ profits. With the increase in the concentration of surface ozone, farmer households would take actions such as reducing input of production factor in the short term so as to adapt to the adverse impacts of ozone pollution upon profits of planting grain, thereby aggravating losses to the crop yield caused by ozone pollution. On this basis, this paper puts forward the corresponding agricultural and environmental policies so as to mitigate the adverse effects of surface ozone pollution on grain production.

Impact of direct grain subsidies on wheat productivity for farmers operating farms of different sizes: based on data collected from farmers at national rural fixed observation points

GAO Ming;SONG Hongyuan;Michael Carter

Chinese Rural Economy,2016,No. 08

【Abstract】 By using the panel data collected from sample farmers at national rural observation points in Henan Province between 2003 and 2014, this paper used the EBM model and the GML index to analyze technical efficiency of wheat production and wheat total factor productivity (TFP) in Henan Province between 2009 and 2014. Then wheat TFP was decomposed to analyze the impact of direct grain subsidies (DGS) on wheat productivity for farmers operating farms of different sizes by using instrumental variables and the 2SLS method. What this paper found were as the follows. Between 2009 and 2014, wheat production had scale efficiency in Henan Province, and wheat TFP had increased, which was mainly caused by the increase in factor input. DGS had positive impacts on technical efficiency of farmers’ wheat production. However, DGS had small impacts on wheat TFP for farmers who had more than 6 mu of farmland. In terms of the impacts of DGS on different contributing factors of wheat TFP, DGS promoted the growth rate of human capital for farmers who had 0–6 mu of farmland, and promoted the growth rate of factor input for farmers who had more than 6 mu of farmland. However, these impacts were not sufficient to promote the increase in wheat TFP.

Is off-farm employment undermining grain production? An analysis of the farming household’s factor substitution, crop allocation adjustment, as well relevant constraints

ZHONG Funing;LU Wuyi;XU Zhigang

Chinese Rural Economy,2016,No. 07

【Abstract】 It has become a prominent issue in the discussion of agriculture economy whether and to what extent the massive migration of rural labor has impacted on grain production. This study is a theoretical and empirical examination of the factor substitution and crop allocation adjustment following off-farm employment among farming households, the resulting influences on grain production, as well as the influences of off-farm employment on grain production under different constraints. The results show that off-farm employment may cause adjustments in factor investment and crop allocation, and increase in the proportion of machine investment and grain seeded area. Therefore, the grain seeded area increases as a whole. In their attempts to reduce labor investment, it is considered as a sensible choice to increase grain cropping which is less labor-intensive and more machine-friendly. However, how much off-farm employment can influence grain production is determined by such constraints as the practicability of mechanization and the possibility for crop allocation adjustment. In hilly or mountainous areas where machine cultivation is inadaptable, the positive effect of off-farm employment on grain production will be undermined. Whereas in the city suburbs with large market capacity and great potential for crop allocation adjustment, the positive effect of off-farm employment on grain production will also be undermined.

Effects of agricultural machinery on the substitution intensity of labor force and food output

WANG Ou;TANG Ke;ZHENG Huamao

Chinese Rural Economy,2016,No. 12

【Abstract】 With the advancement of urbanization in China and the exodus of the rural labor force, the agricultural production in China is developing in the direction that relies more on machinery input. It is very important to recognize the influences of agricultural machinery on intensity of labor force substitution and grain output, as well as the differences of the influences between different grain varieties and different time and space. Based on the Chinese villages’ fixed observing point from 2003 to 2014 of the farmer households’ panel data, this paper calculated the elasticity of input-output of the machinery and the labor force and the elasticity of technological substitution between them through the tranlog production function. Research results showed that the development of agricultural machinery had effectively replaced the agricultural labor force, and promoted the increase of grain production. However, the substitution intensity of agricultural machinery for labor force showed differences in time and space between different varieties of grain. Specifically, from 2003 to 2014, wheat and rice’s values of elasticity of the machinery-labor technological substitution were constant, and formed the substitution of agricultural machinery for the labor force. Corn’s value of elasticity of the machinery-labor technological substitution increased from −0.744 to 0.101, and the relationship between machinery and labor force evolved from complementarity to substitution. As for comparing the substitution intensity of agricultural machinery for labor force, rice was higher than wheat, and wheat was higher than corn. As for comparing different areas, the substitution intensity of agricultural machinery for labor force in plain areas is higher than that in non-plain areas. Therefore, considering the differences of the development levels of agricultural machinery in different areas and food varieties, the emphasis on technological innovation and promotion of agricultural machinery should be inclined to corn and non-plain areas in future.

Empirical analysis on spatio-temporal evolution and driving forces of per capita grain possession in China

ZHANG Liguo;CHEN Su

Economic Geography,2015,Vol 35,No. 03

【Abstract】 This paper analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution and driving forces of per capita grain possession in China from 1990 to 2012 by variation coefficient and Theil index. The results are as follows: the change characteristics of per capita grain possession was rising with fluctuations at first, then declining with fluctuations, and then continuously rising; staged development of “slow to fast” was the characteristics of spatial difference change of per capita grain possession; the rising rate of per capita grain in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Henan, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Gansu and Anhui were larger, while the declining rate in Zhejiang, Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai and Fujian were larger; severe grain-shortage regions gathered in Beijing, Tianjin and the southeast coastal region,general grain-shortage regions scattered throughout China, regions of self-sufficiency in grain gathered in Western China, general grain-output regions gathered in Central China, and main grain-output regions gathered in Northeast China. The positive effect on per capita grain possession were the rural population per capita cultivated, the population of agricultural labor workers, the power of agricultural machinery per mu (1 hectare = 15 mu), the amount of fertilizer per mu, the degree of irrigation, preference to plant grain, multiple crop index and abolition of agricultural tax, while the negative effect were natural disaster degree and per capita Gross Domestic Production (GDP).

China’s food structure and safety: the perspective of grain circulation and trading

MAO Xuefeng;LIU Jing;ZHU Xinkai

Management World,2015,No. 03

【Abstract】 This article assessed China’s food safety status by food structure, grain circulation and trading. The study found that the “11th consecutive year” is accurately to be the realization of “11th consecutive year” in food total amount, and the reference point was the historical lowest grain yield at 2003. The main driver for the growth is from corn production increase, not the limited rations increase. Chinese food import undergoes substantial changes shifting from supply and demand regulation to large-scale imports. From the view of food structure, the trade of rations, especially the rice, may face great risks. Future food insecurity is more about the circulation and trade issues. Therefore, the government shall attach more importance to grain distribution and trade capacity when building grain comprehensive production capacity.

Appraisal and strategic thinking on food security status of China

ZHANG Yuanhong;LIU Changquan;GUO Lulai

China Rural Survey,2015,No. 01

【Abstract】 Based on internationally accepted concept of food security, this paper appraised the status, trends and problems of food security of China by constructing indices representing supply, distribution, consumption, utilization ratio, result, stability, sustainability and regulation ability, to appraise the status, trends and problems of food security of China. Result shows that food security of China is at high level and has kept rising during the past years. China has advantages in food security, which are manifested by the facts that many indices such as rate of self-sufficiency, per capita supply of energy and protein are higher than those of world average level, and even the average level of the developed nations. Main problems of food security of China are inappropriate composition of nutrition and unsustainability of environment. Further improvement of food security could be achieved by adjusting production structure, employing more environment-friendly way of production, emphasizing management of consumption, reducing overconsumption and losses, lowering rate of storage appropriately.

Review of Russian agricultural production and food security

XU Zhenwei;WANG Xulong

Russian Central Asian & East European Market,2015,No. 04

【Abstract】 Food security has long been an important part of Russia’s national security. In a time of economic hardship in the early period after Russia’s independence, Russia faced serious challenges of food security. Since Putin came to power, a series of laws, regulations and policy reforms have been effective in improving the situation. So far, from the three facets of production capacity, consumption capacity and trade capacity, food security in Russia is in a relatively good condition. Since Russia’s accession to the WTO, as well as the crisis in Ukraine, food security has had to face new opportunities and challenges. This article analyzes Russian food policy since independence, Russian food production, consumption and trade conditions, as well as the outlook of the food security for Russia under new circumstances.

An empirical analysis on technical efficiency of grain production and its influencing factors from the perspective of poverty—based on the EBM-Goprobit model

GAO Ming;MA Ling

China Rural Survey,2015,No. 04

【Abstract】 This paper used the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013, adopted the latest EBM and Goprobit models in the DEA method, classified 30 provinces (cities or regions) into five categories according to the occurrence of poverty, analyzed technical efficiency of grain production in all categories of poor areas, and further found out the influencing factors. The conclusions were as follows. First, technical efficiency of grain production in poor areas had been the main factor restricting the increase in China's grain production since 2000; second, in relatively poor areas, the contribution rate of science and technology to the process of grain production was lower than the national average; third, the improvement of human capital was beneficial to poor areas for promoting technical efficiency of grain production; agricultural subsidies could distort technical efficiency of grain production in both poor and non-poor areas, but had promoting effects on very poor areas.

Is the comparative efficiency of grain production low in China?

LI Shouhan;HE Xiurong;YANG Shuguo

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 05

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the comparative efficiency of Chinese grain production from the perspective of industrial benefits, benefits of agricultural production projects and workday earnings. The conclusion is that according to the official accounting, the cost-profit ratio of grain production is very high, but there is a serious phenomenon that it is virtual-high. If we calculate household labor input by the market labor price, the profit of grain production per mu (a unit of area (1 mu = 0.0667 hectares)) is low, and even negative. The cost-profit ratio, net income per mu and profit per mu of grain production are far lower than those of vegetable and fruit production. Before 2010, the workday earnings of grain production gradually improve, even a little higher than daily wages of local workers (employed in busy farming season). But after 2010, they are gradually lower than the workday earnings of local workers and migrant workers. This paper holds that the core issue of the lower efficiency of Chinese grain production is that the annual profit of grain agriculture is lower, and the main reason is the underemployment of grain agriculture in time and space. The fundamental way to improve annual profit of grain production is to expand the scale of operation, and to match the advantage of unit benefit of high-price crop with advantage of scale.

Strengthening the foundation of hegemony: a comment on the US Feed the Future Initiative

XU Zhenwei

The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2015,Vol 29,No. 05

【Abstract】 Regarding the global food crisis that broke out during 2008 and 2010, the US government, in consideration of humanitarianism, the US politics and economic interests, introduced the Feed the Future Initiative targeting poverty-stricken countries, conducted a series of aid activities, including increasing agricultural loans and food supply to recipient countries, conducting agricultural technology cooperation and exchanges with recipient countries, and improving recipient countries’ food trade system. Though this initiative achieved certain results, controversies such as the restriction from the US national interests, private companies’ seeking profit, and transgenic technology influenced its implementation effects. As deep-rooted social issues of unfair distribution of resources such as land cannot be resolved, and the US promotes trade protection policy in order to safeguard its economic interests and hegemony, this initiative cannot fundamentally solve the food crisis faced by the recipient countries.

Cause analysis of the squeeze effect of China’s grain market

WENG Ming

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 11

【Abstract】 The rigidly rising price of China’s grain and the constantly decreasing price of international grain led to the price of domestic grain significantly higher than that of international grain, also caused the squeeze effect of China’s grain market. This paper analyzed the mechanism of the squeeze effect of China’s grain market and the change in the wheat and corn production cost of China and America as well as the international shipping expense of grain. What the research results showed were as the follows. The squeeze effect mainly originated from the change in the grain production cost both at home and abroad. Especially, the proportion of domestic labor cost was great and the growth range was large, and the rising range of domestic land cost was significant while the decrease in the international shipping expense of grain prompted the further decrease in the CIF price of imported grain. Meanwhile, given the negative effect of the squeeze effect of the grain market, this paper calculated space for reducing the import tariff of grain when the prices of grain at home and abroad were in an inverted relation in 2015, and the result was that space for reducing the tariff of major grain varieties was very limited in China.

Analysis of the influencing factors for international grain price fluctuations

WANG Xuezhen;GONG Maogang;WU Shilei

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 11

【Abstract】 This paper combined supply and demand and considered influences of panic buying and the large-scale influx of hot money into the international grain market inciting a pessimistic perspective, observed the influencing factors for grain price fluctuations in various countries systematically, and analyzed the root of international grain price fluctuations. The research results showed that the influencing factors for grain price fluctuations in various countries mainly included grain price fluctuations at the early stage, fluctuations in grain supply, fluctuations in grain demand and fluctuations in hot money. Among these influencing factors, the fluctuations in the fundamental factors of the grain market, namely, fluctuations in grain supply and fluctuations in grain demand are the major reasons, and relatively speaking, the influence of fluctuations in grain supply was great.

New and effective solutions to the problem of grain security: enhancing the development of the forage grass industry

WANG Mingli

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 12

【Abstract】 During 2003–2014, China’s grain production had achieved the eleventh increase in a row. Meanwhile, China’s agriculture also faces the shortage of water and land resources, outstanding problems of quality and security of products, heavy pressure on the ecology, low production efficiency and other outstanding restraints. The traditional ideas must be reconsidered from a fresh and wide perspective for solving the problem of grain security. This paper suggests that grain security should be repositioned from the perspective of the entire food system. Currently, the problem of grain security in China is forage security in essence, namely, the sufficient supply, and quality and security of animal products. China’s agricultural structure has been adjusted basically every 20 years, namely, the monotonous structure of grain as the key link from the middle 1950s to the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, the dual structure of grain crops + cash crops from 1978 to 1992, and the triple structure of grain crops, cash crops and forage crops from 1992 to the present. Now, China’s agricultural structure has entered another new period for adjustment. In the current planting structure of grain crops + cash crops + forage crops, the planting area of forage crops actually accounts for over 20%, but the planting area of forage grass keeps at around 1%, so the development of forage grass industry has long remained sluggish. The forage grass industry must be introduced to the agricultural production system to advance the quadruple planting structure of grain crops + cash crops + forage crops + forage grass, so as to increase grain production directly or indirectly, reduce consumption of grain directly or indirectly, and finally reach the goal of grain security by multiple solutions.

Influences of outflow of rural labor force on grain production: evidence from China

CHENG Mingwang;HUANG Tiantian;LIU Yajuan

China Rural Survey,2015,No. 06

【Abstract】 Grain security is a core problem of issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers in China, and the outflow of rural labor force may have a significant influence on grain security. This paper used the panel data from 2001 to 2013, based on the extended C-D production function to make an empirical analysis of the outflow of rural labor force’s influences on grain production and its regional differences. The results showed that the outflow of rural labor force had a remarkable negative influence on grain production in the main sales areas of grain. However, it had no significant influences on grain production in major grain-producing areas and areas with the balance between production and sales. Fully considering the difference of resources endowments and regional characteristics in different areas, making different policies of labor mobility and grain security will be beneficial to ensure the safety of China’s food supply.

What are the main factors that determinate China ’s future grain yield increase? —an analysis based on China’s grain yield increase for ten consecutive year

TIAN Tian;LI Longling;HUANG Dong;WU Laping

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 06

【Abstract】 Against the background of China’s grain yield increase for ten consecutive years from 2004 to 2013, this study, through the decomposition of the grain output equation, finds that grain yield increase is influenced by three factors: yield per unit area, sown area and adjustment of planting structure, and then it further calculates how the above three factors contribute to the “ten consecutive years’ growth.” The results show that the increase of crop yield per unit area contributes the most to grain yield increase. For that reason, the study further builds the Cobb-Douglas function model to analyze the effects of various inputs, policies, climate and farmer’s behavior on yield per unit area. The results show that financial support for agriculture, seed and machinery operation are important driving factors to increase yield per unit area; meanwhile, temperature and rainfall have significantly positive effects on yield per unit area of wheat and maize, and farmer’s expected returns have significantly positive effects on yield per unit area of rice and maize. Thus, it can be concluded that China’s future grain yield increase will more and more depend on improved excellent varieties and machinery investment, which must be supported by policies in terms of governmental agricultural research and popularization and mechanization of agriculture.

Estimating the cost-saving effect of agricultural infrastructure on grain production: based on the seemly unrelated regression method

ZENG Fusheng;LI Fei

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 06

【Abstract】 Based on the total costs function model for grain production, this paper employs the 2000–2013 Chinese provincial panel data for production costs of grain (rice, wheat and corn) to analyze the cost-saving effect of agricultural infrastructure from the perspective of scale effect and structural effect. The study finds that the increase in agricultural infrastructure stock can significantly reduce the average costs (scale effect) of grain production; agricultural infrastructure has a substitution effect on labor factor and a complementary effect on capital factors and intermediate factors; meanwhile it can improve the capital-labor ratio and the intermediate factors-labor ratio (structural effect) in grain production factors, and thus can reduce grain production costs.

The opening of Chinese grain market and international grain price fluctuations: an analysis based on the overflow effect of grain price fluctuations

LI Guangsi;CAO Baoming;MA Xuelin

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 08

【Abstract】 This article uses the co-integration test and vector auto-regression (VAR) model to analyze the relations between Chinese grain prices and international grain prices. With the Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK) model, it analyzes the overflow effect of international grain price fluctuations on Chinese grain price fluctuations. The study shows that there is no obvious co-integration relation between Chinese grain prices and international grain prices. Nevertheless, when the grain market is becoming more open, the co-integration level between Chinese grain prices and international grain prices is increasing. International grain price fluctuations have big impacts on Chinese grain price fluctuations, but the impacts are different among different varieties of grain. International grain price fluctuations have significant overflow effects on Chinese grain price fluctuations, and the overflow effects are strengthened by the opening of China’s grain market.

Blue basic farmland: guaranteeing food security and designing the system

HAN Limin;LI Dahai;WANG Bo

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 10

【Abstract】 The maricultural zone is the main production base of marine aquatic products, and has the important function of guaranteeing food security. This paper used experience of protecting basic farmland for reference earnestly, brought forth new ideas to the system of managing sea, put forward the idea of blue basic farmland firstly, and analyzed necessity of establishing the system of blue basic farmland from the industrial spatial layout and optimization of maricultural industry and other aspects. The research findings showed that protecting and expanding capacity of maricultural production could relieve pressure on food security brought by the growth in residents’ food consumption from animal source at this stage. It was necessary for China to strengthen the guidance for development and protection for maricultural zone through establishing the system of blue basic farmland. This paper suggested delimiting inshore and offshore blue basic farmland of 500 thousand hectares and one million hectares respectively in the near future, and to expand them to be one million hectares and 5 million hectares by 2030 respectively. If this system can be established and be made full use of, only blue basic farmland can achieve that the production of marine aquatic products increases by 22 million tons and can promote the production capacity of China’s marine animal food to increase by 30 million tons than that of now. It is equivalent to exploiting arable land of 160 million acres on the sea. The overall planning for land and sea will enhance China’s capacity for guaranteeing food security in the further.

A study on the grain issue in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Border Region during the War of Resistance against Japan

HUANG Zhenglin

The Journal of Studies of China's Resistance War Against Japan,2015,No. 01

【Abstract】 The environment of the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Border Region which was located in the Loess Plateau, was not favorable for grain production. In order to get through the hardest time during the War of Resistance against Japan, the Communist Party of China and the government of this border region made tremendous efforts to increase grain production and ensure grain supply. Firstly, they extensively motivated peasants and organized labor force to reclaim barren land and expand arable land, thereby increasing the total grain yield. Secondly, they standardized and adjusted the system of grain management and supply to save grain to the highest degree and to ensure grain supply. Thirdly, they restricted the outflow of grain and the utilization of grain for wine production to reduce grain consumption. All these measures reaped some good results. The arable land and grain yield of the border region increased substantially, and a reasonable grain management system was established after the adjustment of political and economic policies, which reduced peasants’ burdens and solved the conflicts for grain. The successful settlement of the grain issue is one of the primary factors that helped the border region get through the hardest time during the War of Resistance against Japan. Therefore, the factor of grain production should not be overlooked in the discussion over the self-sufficiency of this border region.

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