Research on the coordination of global value chain division and energy consumption: a comparison based on 15 manufacturing industries in China and the United States
Ecological Economy,2019,Vol 35,No. 02
【Abstract】 Taking 15 manufacturing industries in China and the U.S. as the research object, the situation of each industry in the GVC division is measured by GVC position and participation indexes, and their energy consumption situations are measured by the index of energy intensity. Differences in coordination among GVC position, participation and energy intensity of manufacturing industries in China and U.S. are analyzed further by the coupling coordination index. The results show that GVC position and participation of manufacturing industries in China increase faster than those in the U.S., but most of China’s manufacturing industries are still holding lower positions in the GVC division. Moreover, from 2002 to 2014, there is a rise in most of the manufacturing industries of China but a decline in those of the U.S. in terms of their positions. In recent years, there are more slowing down industries in China than those in the U.S. in terms of energy intensity. The overall level of coordination in the manufacturing industries of China is lower than that of the U.S., but China’s speed of coupling coordination improvement is slightly faster than that of the U.S. Finally, some suggestions are proposed from three aspects: conducting independent research and development on core technologies, leading the regional value chains and expanding opening up continuously.
Paradigm shifts in the study of Sino-U.S. relations in the post-Cold War era and their implications: commemorating the 40th anniversary of the establishment of Sino-U.S. diplomatic relations
World Economics and Politics,2019,No. 01
【Abstract】 Since the early 1990s, the study of Sino-U.S. relations in China has gone through the stages of raising, growing, and flourishing. The process has also witnessed notable shifts in the research paradigm in the following ways: the research context has shifted from concentrating on the bilateral context to paying extra attention to the multilateral; the research perspective has shifted from exclusively on the U.S. side to looking at both China and the U.S.; the research orientation has shifted from relations of interests orientated to power-balance orientated; the research preference has shifted from stressing on cooperation to giving consideration to both cooperation and competition; the analysis logic has shifted from taking account of the impact of systemic level on unit-level to vice versa; the research emphasis has shifted from the focus on foreign strategy and policy to exploring respective domestic political, economic, social, and cultural factors; and the research method has shifted from empirical approaches to IR theories and methodological innovations. As a matter of fact, the paradigm shifts as described above stand as a reflection of a series of changes in China and the U.S., as well as the bilateral relations, including the changes of power balance, foreign policy-making circumstances on both sides, primary motives behind their respective approaches to the bilateral relationship, patterns of interactions between the two countries, and the impact of Sino-U.S. relationship on international affairs. Furthermore, changes occurred to China, the U.S., as well as their bilateral ties also mirror some of the major adjustments in international politics in the post-Cold War era, such as shifting power balance among major powers, changing pattern of interactions between the East and the West, salience of global governance issues, as well as the accelerating evolution in the international system and international order.
Japanese Studies,2019,No. 01
【Abstract】 Profound changes have taken place in the China-U. S.-Japan triangle since 2012, with China’s development and the expansion of its influence serving as major independent variables promoting changes to the landscape in Asia Pacific, the American strategy of the “Asia-Pacific rebalance” being deepened and adjusted, and Japan starting to take strategic initiatives. Since 2017, with “the recovery of the China-Japan relations having influence on the China-U.S. relations,” and “rising trade friction between China and America having effect on the China-Japan relations,” “the China-U.S.-Japan triangle” has become more complicated while the China-U.S.-Japan relations have entered a stage characterized by strategic dynamics. The improvement of the China-Japan relations has expanded strategic space for both China and Japan, eased the unbalanced situation within the triangle, and provided China with new opportunities to operate diplomatic activities from a multilateral perspective. Apart from that, the development of the China-Japan relations also helps China better understand internal correlations between its relations with “great powers” and “neighboring countries,” handle the China-U.S-Japan triangle and its external balancing variables, and win the multilateral strategic games against the backdrop of complicated and severe global situation.
Sino-US institutional competition during the transformation period of the international order—an analysis based on the institutional balancing theory
Foreign Affairs Review,2019,Vol 36,No. 03
【Abstract】 Against the backdrop of the deepening of globalization and economic interdependence, in addition to the traditional strategy of military balancing, great powers have also conducted strategic interactions and competitions in the form of both inclusive and exclusive institutional balancing strategies in international politics. In a transitional international order, the institutional balancing between a dominant power and a rising power tends to intensify. This paper focuses on studying why China, as a rising power, has chosen an inclusive institutional balancing strategy to maintain the existing international order and the United States, as a dominant power or status quo state, has adopted an exclusive institutional balancing strategy aimed at undermining the existing international order. This paper argues that states’ preferences for different institutional balancing strategies are affected by institutional dividends. In other words, these states make rational choices based on cost-benefit calculations in the process of institutional competition. As its institutional dividend declines continuously, the United States is more likely to adopt an exclusive institutional balancing strategy that can challenge the existing international order, including withdrawing from the existing multilateral institutions and establishing new international institutions in its favor. On the contrary, China is more likely to choose an inclusive institutional balancing strategy that can maintain the existing international order as its institutional dividend rises. Two cases, namely, the exclusive institutional balancing implemented by the Obama administration during the establishment of the TPP and the inclusive institutional balancing adopted by China in establishing the AIIB, will be cited to further examine the theoretical model of “institutional dividends—institutional balancing.” This paper concludes that institutional balancing will become a new form of strategic interactions between China and the United States in the transformation of the international order in the 21st century.
International Economic Review,2019,No. 01
【Abstract】 The China-US trade frictions apparently stem from the long-standing current account imbalances between the two countries. However, as we argued in this article, the fundamental cause is the difference in long-term economic growth and productivity progress between the two countries. History shows that many developed countries, including the US, have achieved long-term and steady current account surplus during their economic take-off and catch-up periods. Empirical evidences also show that (relative) economic growth rate is more fundamental in determining a country’s current account status. There are two channels for economic growth to induce trade frictions: one is that a country tends to raise trade frictions when it experiences a slowdown in economic growth, while the other is that the change in economic ranking may also deteriorate trade conflicts. The former is mainly driven by the dissatisfaction of the deficit countries, while the latter is driven by the world-wide adjustment in terms of economic and political power. Since a country’s long-run economic growth relies on the improvement in technology and productivity, the future of the trade frictions will depend on the race between “technological progress” and “accidents” of conflicts that arise from intensifying rivalry between the two powers.
China-US game and China’s revival: in the perspective of the comparative strength changes of the two countries
Northeast Asia Forum,2019,Vol 28,No. 02
【Abstract】 The global landscape in 2018 is complex and changeable. Unilateralism and trade protectionism are on the rise, and the overall growth of the global economy is falling. The escalating China-US trade conflict has further deepened the uncertainty of the world’s political and economic situation. The comparative strength changes between China and the US have been the focus of global public opinion in the past decade, but few studies have seen the subtlety of the power gap between China and the US. Based on the China-US trade friction, this paper objectively compared the strength changes of China and the US and discussed the strategic direction of the China-US game. This paper believes that the China-US trade dispute is not only a confrontation in the field of economy and trade, but also a comprehensive game involving all kinds of strengths of the two countries. Although the heads of the two sides have reached a consensus to suspend the increase of tariffs, the China-US trade dispute is still a long-term and serious issue. China should be fully prepared to launch a game against the US with strategic endurance, build a global innovation engine, establish a new international cooperation network, and ultimately achieve the great rise of the country.
Development of Sino-ROK and US-ROK relations and the choices of the ROK under the pattern of Sino-US competition
Northeast Asia Forum,2019,Vol 28,No. 02
【Abstract】 The Trump administration has adopted the America First policy and persisted to the concept of isolationism. In order to maximize its own interests, the US has increased its conflict and friction with China in an all-round way. China and the US are the biggest external factors influencing the situation on the Korean Peninsula and play an important role in the development direction and destiny of the peninsula. As an ally of the US and a strategic partner of China, the Republic of Korea (the ROK) has clearly felt the pressure from the increasingly fierce Sino-US competition. On the one hand, it is difficult for the ROK to get rid of its security dependence on the US. On the other hand, it is also difficult for the ROK to give up its political and economic cooperation with China, and ROK does not want to become the frontier position for the US to contain China. A series of policy measures implemented by the Moon Jae-in administration and its positive effect have strengthened the confidence of the ROK, as a middle power, to exert its diplomatic autonomy and flexibility and control its own destiny. Under the pattern of Sino-US competition, the ROK can only get rid of the dilemma of choice and make correct diplomatic decisions by accurately judging the changes of geopolitical and geo-economic patterns in East Asia, reasonably anticipating the results of Sino-US competition, and developing its own strength.
Balancing China? An assessment of the fluctuating influence of China, the United States, Japan, and India in Myanmar (2010–2018)
South Asian Studies,2019,No. 02
【Abstract】 Based on a quantitative analysis of the volume of high-level exchanges and asymmetric dependence between states, this article tests the hypothesis or conclusion of studies on major state relations with Myanmar that states seek to “balance China’s influence,” and further considers the fluctuation influence of China, the United States, Japan, and India in Myanmar. The findings illustrate that China’s influence in Myanmar is in fact on the decline, but that American, Japanese and Indian influence has not risen significantly, and that the three enjoy similar levels of influence. The research illustrates that Myanmar uses other major states to strategically balance China’s influence and to prevent the expansion of Chinese influence in the country. At the same time, it also leverages the presence of others, non-threatening actors such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the European Union (EU), and other smaller or medium-sized states to fill the space left by the contraction of Chinese influence. As such, the reality does not match with the empirical research from other states or regions which points to a logic of one great state gaining influence at the loss of another. Influenced by the great importance that Myanmar places on its independence and autonomy, actors competing for influence in China’s periphery are increasingly complex, and the simple model of understanding based on “China, great powers and neighboring states” needs to be adapted.
Study on measurements of China-U.S. trade gains distribution and its influencing factors in global value chains based on the perspective of relative export value added rates
Journal of International Trade,2019,No. 08
【Abstract】 This paper analyzed the distribution of trade gains and its impact factors between China and the U.S. under GVCs using value added statistics and the factor income decomposition method. We find that, as evidenced by the electrical and optical equipment industries, there is no Leontief's paradox in China-U.S. trade. Furthermore, the comparative advantage formed by technology and factor endowment determines the distribution pattern of China-U.S. trade gains. From 1995 to 2011, the relative export value added rates between China and the U.S. were always less than 1, and the decline of relative real factor income offsets the improvement of terms of trade in China, indicating that China had taken an inferior position in the distribution of bilateral trade gains. From 1998 to 2005, with the increase of differences in technology and factor endowments, the relative export value added rates between China and the U.S. gradually decreased. The reinforcement of original comparative advantages led to the strengthening of China’s position. Between 2006 and 2009, with the decreased differences of technology and factor endowments, the relative export value added rates between China and the U.S. gradually increased, which contributed to a balancing of the trade gains between them. China had the potential comparative advantage in the usage of high-skilled labor. However, the delayed reaction of production technology in response to the change of factor endowments has weakened the capacity of China in seeking trade gains.
Northeast Asia Forum,2019,Vol 28,No. 04
【Abstract】 With the growth of China’s comprehensive national strength and the intensification of the competition between China and the United States (U.S.) in the Asia-Pacific region, as an important middle power in this region, how the Republic of Korea (ROK) makes strategic choices between China and the U.S. has become an important issue of academic concern. Taking the ROK’s participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the ROK’s deployment of the THAAD system and the ROK’s position on the South China Sea issue as examples, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the ROK’s strategic choice between China and the U.S. and the factors influencing its decision. It is found that the strategic definition of “depending on the U.S. in security and depending on China in economy” is not enough to illustrate the characteristics of the ROK’s strategic choice between China and the U.S. and the ROK’s strategic choices are diversified. Furthermore, it is believed that the system pressure and security awareness are important elements influencing the ROK’s strategic choices between China and the U.S.. Among them, defending against threats from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) takes precedence over defending against security threats from the Sino-U.S. competition. Specifically, in the aspect of security, if a certain topic involves the threat from the DPRK, the ROK usually adopts the strategy of following the U.S.. If the DPRK’s threat is not involved, the ROK will choose the “hedging” strategy to cater to the U.S. without harming China’s interests.
China-US relations based on massive machine-coded event data: influence of reciprocity, policy inertia, and the third party
World Economics and Politics,2019,No. 05
【Abstract】 The prospect and influencing factors of the China-US relations have long sparked heated debate among international relations scholars and foreign policy analysts. Based on the event data of interactions between China and the US from 1979 to 2017 from the Global Database of Events, Language and Tone, this paper intends to investigate the effects of reciprocity, policy inertia, and the third party (Russia) on how China and the US cooperate or conflict with each other. The authors apply the time series analysis, or more specifically, the vector autoregressive model and the impulse response function to identify the mutual effects of interactions between China and the US. The major findings of this paper can be summarized as the following: the dominant factor behind the US actions toward China is policy inertia determined by its domestic political logic, while the weights of the three factors are roughly equal in China’s actions towards the US. Reciprocity is empirically identified in China-US interactions, but their reciprocity is limited and asymmetric. In addition, the China-US-Russia triangle in the post-Cold War period is featured with a balance of power, which is particularly salient in China’s actions towards the US. A coordinative pattern emerged between China and Russia in their actions towards the US roughly after 1999. However, conflicting with the US is at most a short-term tactic but not a long-term strategy for both China and Russia. Plus, without the presence of stable reciprocity between China and Russia, it is practically difficult for the coordinative pattern between China and Russia to be upgraded to an alliance. Those findings shed light on the theoretical and policy debates on the questions regarding conflict or cooperation between the two great powers. Furthermore, this paper applies big data and relevant analytical tools to search for systemic empirical evidence to answer important international relations questions，which demonstrate great potentials of the big data approach in the international relations research．
The localization of public administration: a comparative analysis based on the different paths of China and the US
Cass Journal of Political Science,2019,No. 01
【Abstract】 The topic of localization has always become outstanding in the context of comparison. Since the end of 19th century, public administration in the US has gone through the development from localization to generalization and has gained strong discourse hegemony. Since its restoration and reconstruction from 1980s, public administration in China has experienced a developmental path from copying，active learning to an effort of self-construction. Upon comparing the developmental processes of public administration in China and the US，one can find that public administration in the US prioritizes Americanization and pursues generalization based on Americanization. The core topic of localization is how to resolve the conflicts between the particularity and universality in the discourse system of public administration. The localization of public administration in China is placed in a context of Eastern-Western dualism, where localization focuses more on value proposition but lack of a doctrinal analysis. The future path of public administration in China should be established in China’s modern state construction, surpassing the myth of centralism. It should turn the context of Eastern-Western dualism into a conversational context and aim at exploring the general logic of theory in public administration.
Phased aims and characters of the Belt and Road in context of competition between China and the United States
World Economics and Politics,2019,No. 04
【Abstract】 The paper examined the nature of the Belt and Road and the relationship between its economic aims and strategic goals in the current phase based on the analysis of the relationship between rising China and the international system dominated by the U.S., including the trend of this relationship. By assessing the limits and development points of the Belt and Road as well as the paradigms, models, content, area extensions and implementation methods, it argued that currently China is still in the initial stage of economic rise, and its vulnerabilities include its dependence on world economy order dominated by the U.S. and the challenges brought by the U.S. constant preventive pressure. Due to those factors, the bilateral relations between China and U.S. and its tendency are exhibiting zero-sum game characteristics. The paper points out that currently competition between China and the U.S. does not focus on the struggling for world leadership. The present critical danger of China is how to avoid the economic pressure trap built by the U.S. preventive constraint measures which aim at slowing down or even sabotaging the comprehensive strength accumulation of China. China needs to refrain from the miscalculation that China’ development still relies on the U.S. support and its support will last. China needs more self-confidence on its independent development and at least needs to prepare for the decoupling between China and U.S. Meanwhile, China also needs to notice the misleading trend of sacrificing China’s own development chances and even crucial interests to defuse the structural confrontation between these two world giants. Last but not least, China also needs to resist the temptation to try to formulate its own parallel regional cooperation system, providing an alternative plan of world order dominated by the United States, for such ambition will inevitably make the bilateral relations completely trapped in a zero-sum game. Based on these assessments, the paper concluded that currently the Belt and Road should keep its nature as a long-term development initiative and serve the aim of maintaining external environment required by China’s economic development. China should reduce its dependence on the U.S. world economy order and focus on building its independent and sound regional cooperation structure so as to find an alternative plan for China’s sustained economic growth. China should reduce constant reliance on the U.S. dominant system and meanwhile resist the ambition to topple down the current world economy order. The Belt and Road should concentrate more on this long-term development approach by phased, directed and sufficient resources investment.
Finance & Trade Economics,2019,Vol 40,No. 11
【Abstract】 With deepening labor division along global value chains (GVCs), the changes in a country’s economic policy will greatly affect the global economic structure. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to discuss the effect of Trump’s tax reform on reshaping Sino-US GVCs. Considering the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) cannot describe clearly the policy effects on GVCs, we made the linkage between GTAP model and the popular trade in value added decomposition model (KWW, 2014) for the first time and measured changes of trade value added of China and the USA. There are some interesting findings. (1) Relative to baseline scenario, although Trump’s tax reform will slightly restrain Chinese GDP growth rate (0.49%), the real export will increase (1.16%). (2) From GVC decomposition at the country level, Chinese domestic value added embodied in export to USA will grow up by USD 27.6 billion. (3) To analyze the effect on the industry level, we took textile, motor and parts, and electronics as examples. We found that the U.S. tax cut will promote trade value added on electronics mostly, domestic trade value added on textile grows weakly, and domestic trade value added on motor and parts increases most slightly. (4) From the perspective of different trade partners, we found in China domestic value added in textile industry will increase for all partners; however, the motor industry and electronics are totally different, whose domestic value added embodied in U.S. trade will increase while export to others will decrease.
Great power economic diplomacy and global economic governance institutions: an analysis based on Chinese and US economic diplomacy strategies and their interactions
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies,2019,No. 02
【Abstract】 To a great extent, diplomatic interactions between great powers on the economic front play a critical role in the evolution of global economic governance institutions. For centuries, great powers have sought to use economic diplomacy as a means of molding global economic governance system which is favorable to their own interests. Through a review of economic diplomacies between the US and the UK before and after the Second World War, and implications for the power structures underlying global economic governance institutions, this article finds that US economic diplomacy and policies played a critical role in molding and maintaining US leadership over the global political diplomacy. China is a rising player when it comes to the use of economic diplomacy, and since the beginning of China’s reform and opening, economic diplomacy has helped China transit from a participant in institutions for global economic governance to a builder, reformer and even creator for new global economic governance. As the Trump administration implements its foreign policy of “principled realism,” competition between China and the US will intensify, and China needs to seek greater space vis-à-vis the United States in terms of its institutional influence.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2018,Vol 32,No. 02
【Abstract】 The report to the 19th CPC National Congress puts forward the concept of socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era. This not only makes clear the new historic juncture of China’s development, but also gives the blueprint for China’s development in the coming decades as well as corresponding diplomatic strategy. In China’s diplomatic strategy in the new era, China-US relations still occupy an important status. Based on its development and diplomatic strategies, China looks forward to the steady development of China-US relations. However, it can be seen from the national security strategy of the US in the new era that negative factors are on the increase in terms of its policies towards China, which means that Sino-US relations will face more severe challenges. Nevertheless, factors such as the change of world pattern and adjustment of the US strategy create some development opportunities for China-US relations.
China-US financial cooperation after the global financial crisis: from the perspective of the US politics of exchange rate
Northeast Asia Forum,2018,Vol 27,No. 01
【Abstract】 This paper suggested that the US politics of exchange rate objectively drove the establishment of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, providing a platform for financial cooperation between the two countries. Although the attitude of Trump government towards the issue of CNY exchange rate is still restricted by the US politics of exchange rate, the market-oriented reform of CNY exchange rate still effectively restrained the political pressure on China. More importantly, the collaboration of the two countries on the issue of CNY exchange rate is an important opportune moment for further financial cooperation. Both China and the United States should grasp this great historic opportunity, by setting up currency swap agreement and further opening the financial sector, to consolidate the market basis of bilateral financial cooperation at the micro level. In the long term, the substantial progress of China-US financial cooperation will also be an effective way to suppress the US politics of exchange rate.
Economic Geography,2018,Vol 38,No. 03
【Abstract】 With the complication of economic globalization and the promotion of the international recognition to the “Belt and Road” initiative, the geo-economic game between big powers has become an important factor affecting international relations. Although South America is a “marginal outskirt area” on the land according to the classical geopolitical theories, its unique geopolitical location and its strategic orientation as an extending area of the “Belt and Road” make it one of the most significant regions that China and the United States play the geo-economic competition game on. This paper tries to ascribe the intensity of geo-economy relation from the dimensions of trade and investment. Next, the spatio-temporal pattern evolution of the geo-economic competition game between China and the United States in South America from 2000 to 2015 is to be explored and the differences and the influencing factors are to be discussed. We draw the conclusions as follows. Firstly, China and the United States depend less on South America than South America countries depend on the two countries, hence both sides present an imbalanced interdependence relation. Secondly, in terms of the spatio-temporal pattern evolution of the competition game, compared with the United States, China’s geo-economic relations with South America countries appear an intensive tendency spreading from the south to the north, which is mainly restricted by geographical factors and separates South America by the Amazon rainforest. Thirdly, among the elements of the geo-economic competition game between China and the United States, different features of international trade and investment have been shown. China prefers to compete by investment and appears great advantage on investment to the United States since 2010, while the United States lays more emphasis on keeping the dominant status of international trade on South America. Based on the discoveries above, we propose the following suggestions. First, China should pay more attention to the cooperation with South America on merchandise trade, especially the commodities that China and South America have higher complementarity. Second, when striving for bigger economic shares, China needs to take differentiated strategies on different countries and avoids head-on confrontation with the United States. Finally, in addition to deepening economic cooperation, China can explore new areas of cooperation in trade and economic sectors with South America.
Journal of International Trade,2018,No. 04
【Abstract】 The share of USD-denominated securities in China’s foreign exchange reserves has been high. This paper estimates the currency composition of China’s foreign exchange reserves over 2010–2016 and identifies its determinants by virtue of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), with the purpose of revealing the reasons for the dominance of the USD in China’s foreign exchange reserve. The introduction of influencing factors bases on three motives of holding reserves. Since portfolio motive and transaction motive have been widely accepted, this paper focuses on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between precautionary motive and currency composition. The paper finds that factors that reflect transaction motive and precautionary motive are significant, indicating that the USD’s dominant status in China’s foreign exchange reserves is largely due to its extensive use in international payments, such as international trade and international debt payments, as well as its attribute as a global security asset. While factors related to portfolio motive such as yield and risk are insignificant, which explain why China did not reduce dollar assets massively while the sharp depreciation of the dollar and decline in the yield on USD assets after the crisis. In addition, inertia contributes to the maintenance of the dollar’s dominance. The above conclusions provide enlightening significance to understanding currency composition management of China’s foreign exchange reserves and promoting the RMB’s reserve function.
China-US relations: an analysis from the perspective of forging a new type of international relations ①
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2018,Vol 32,No. 02
【Abstract】 The Report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China called to forge a new type of international relations and to build a community with a shared future for mankind, which points out the direction of Chinese diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in the new era. To create a new type of major power relationship between China and the US is an important part of building a new type of international relations. To promote the coordination and cooperation of other major countries, including the US, and to build a framework for major power relations featuring overall stability and balanced development are also important parts of building a new type of international relations. There are many benefits for advancing coordination and cooperation between China and the US. However, there are serious challenges as well. Now China and the US are in a stalemate of strategic competition. In the future for a very long time, the two countries will both compete and cooperate. If they deal with the mutual relationship well, it will promise a long term of China-US cooperation. Both countries should make great efforts to avoid cut-throat competition and promote positive competition so as to advance mutual coordination and cooperation. They should also stress their common interests and effectively control their differences in order to establish an overall stability in China-US relations.
Northeast Asia Forum,2018,Vol 27,No. 01
【Abstract】 With the final decision by the U.S. and South Korea to deploy the “THAAD,” the security condition in Northeast Asia is growing increasingly tense, leading to a more unbalanced China-U.S.-South Korea triangular relationship. The U.S.-South Korea relations are moving close to the “stable marriage” triangular relationship defined by Lowell Dittmer, and the China-U.S.-South Korea triangle is now in a state of “downward spiral.” It is important for the U.S. to reconsider the China-U.S.-South Korea triangular relationship and the role it plays in solving the DPRK nuclear crisis. The U.S. should adjust its strategy in Northeast Asia which is partially aimed at restraining and counterbalancing China; South Korea should rethink profoundly about its traditional way of binding itself with the U.S. when it comes to dealing with the DPRK nuclear crisis; and China should re-energize its strategic initiatives for the denuclearization of the DPRK. Also, the three states can try to establish a new platform for trilateral dialogue for discussing important strategic issues. In a word, China, the U.S., and South Korea should go beyond realist way of thinking, find a new paradigm for dealing with the DPRK nuclear crisis, and nurture a new political environment in Northeast Asia for the realization of “ménage à trois” triangular relationship.
The Journal of International Studies,2018,Vol 39,No. 01
【Abstract】 Cyberspace is now becoming a big stage for a new round of geopolitical competition, and the geopolitics of cyberspace has emerged as a useful analytical perspective. Cyberspace is being geopoliticized due to the geographic attributes of cyberspace architecture, major actors, and the growing power of sovereign states in the cyberspace. There are six aspects in terms of the logic of geopolitics of cyberspace in the U.S.-China relations: the geopolitical thinking behind cyber security discourse and policy, the overlap between man-made cyberspace boundaries and geopolitical space, the concept of cyberspace sovereignty echoing traditional theories of geopolitics, the similarity of power struggle in the cyberspace and geopolitical competition, the militarization trend of cyberspace increasing risks of geopolitical conflicts, and the gradual integration of cyberspace issues into traditional geopolitical structure. The U.S.-led geopoliticization trend of cyberspace is detrimental to global cyber security, therefore China should work together with other countries to jointly move beyond geopolitics and build a “Community of Shared Future in Cyberspace.”
Southeast Asian Studies,2018,No. 03
【Abstract】 This round of negotiations on the “Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC)” partly originates from the intensification of strategic competition between the US and China in the South China Sea. It is also an important issue of the game playing between the two sides in the South China Sea in recent years. The cognition of China and the US are influenced by their identity, interest concerns and policy preference, which are different in many ways. Both countries exert influence on ASEAN countries in line with their own perception and carry out policy interactions in order to influence the process and the outcome of the negotiations. The policy interaction between the two countries presents four major features, which are competitive interaction as the basic attribute, indirect and asymmetric interaction as the main pattern, dominating the issue as the core objective and identity as the effect of interaction. Through three stages of interaction and game playing, China has greatly eliminated the interference of countries outside the region and grasped the initiative of the consultations on this issue. Bad-mouthing China through public opinions and colluding with countries outside the region are two main trends of the intervention of the Trump administration on the “COC” issue. In the process of future negotiations on the “COC,” China should further build the identity as a responsible major country, construct the good order of the South China Sea and properly manage the differences and competition between the two countries in this region.
Northeast Asia Forum,2018,Vol 27,No. 05
【Abstract】 In many research fields of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, there is no research on negotiation analysis framework and bargaining power. What is worse is that China can be easily put into a passive and unfavorable position by one-sidedness and narrowness of the current negotiation theory. In view of the complexity, variability and interaction of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, this paper proposed that bargaining power structure is an important factor affecting the transformation of U.S. trade policy, and interpreted the overall situation of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations based on the three-tier game analysis framework. It further pointed out that Sino-U.S. trade negotiations are a process involving the interaction of the three-tier international-domestic-decision-makers game. The negotiation result is the product of the interaction of international power structure, the domestic winning set and the decision makers’ cognition. By constructing the Sino-U.S. trade negotiation model, it is concluded that the overall power is not the power source of the negotiators, and the power on specific issues is the key factor affecting the negotiation results. The change of the power structure will be caused by the change of the domestic winning set and the cognition of the decision makers, and trust is more likely to dominate the negotiation process and results. In view of the remarkable influence of bargaining power on negotiation behavior and result, this paper suggested that China’s bargaining power can be enhanced by insistence strategy, issue linking and changing the winning set of the other party.
Construction of all-domain winning strategic deterrent system by the US and Sino-US strategic stability
Foreign Affairs Review,2018,Vol 35,No. 03
【Abstract】 In recent years, the US has gradually changed its strategic deterrent system from both the cognitive and operational level. At the cognitive level, the US gradually adjusts its perception of the biggest security threat from nuclear terrorism into strategic competition with major powers and “cross-domain threats,” and it realizes that its current deterrent means have natural limitations. Besides, such cognition is strengthened through the winning deterrent mentality, namely, achieving deterrent effect by pursuing victory in the battlefield. After realizing the fundamental dilemma that current deterrent means are hard to achieve deterrent effect, the US has adjusted and strengthened deterrence in various fields at the operational level, including reshaping the absolute superiority of nuclear deterrence, establishing conventional deterrence of offense and defense, and improving the offensive capability of emerging deterrence such as cyber and space. In addition, the US also seeks to achieve cross-domain deterrence through the complementary and flexible combination of various deterrent means. All these strategic measures have an impact on traditional strategic stability between China and the US mainly based on nuclear and missiles defense system. Besides, the practice of cross-domain deterrence also negatively affects the strategic stability of nuclear, conventional, cyber and space domains in the broad sense.
Northeast Asia Forum,2018,Vol 27,No. 05
【Abstract】 Quite different from the orientation of “green” nation in the Obama Era, the climate policy in US in the Trump Era presents the characteristic of “industrial renaissance.” The Trump administration issued a large number of “grey” climate laws, paying much attention to domestic economic development while ignoring the international cooperation of coping with climate change, and having announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. As a product of the policy of “America First,” those actions from Trump administration have not only led to the failure of the model of interest interaction of Sino-US climate diplomacy, which makes the existing cooperative achievements of Sino-US climate diplomacy in danger of being overturned, but also seriously hindered the realization of the significant expected goal of Sino-US climate diplomacy. In this regard, China should be cautious to seek outlets of Sino-US climate diplomacy. China should consider four aspects: firstly, to establish the guiding ideology of “community of shared future for mankind,” and hold fast to the basic principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capacities”; secondly, to adopt the climate diplomatic strategy of “cooperation and mutual progress,” improve China’s voice in climate governance, and bring forward a “China approach”; thirdly, to grab the opportunity of the “Belt and Road” Initiative, strengthen the exchanges and cooperation of sub-state actors and non-state actors between China and the US, and then force the cooperation at the state level; fourthly, to take Sino-US low-carbon economic cooperation as the main force, and use the cooperation in clean coal technology as an auxiliary, so as to leverage the climate cooperation and talks between China and the US.
International Economic Review,2018,No. 04
【Abstract】 The colossal trade deficits of the United States are a direct consequence of its long-standing domestic structural and policy imbalances supported by the US dollar’s exorbitant privilege as the dominant international reserve currency. China, on the contrary, has focused on transforming its domestic economy to achieve external rebalancing through internal restructuring, which provides an exemplary case for solving the problem of trade imbalance. It requires both sides, especially the US, to face up to the domestic structural issues of the US to resolve their trade disputes; a trade war will only exacerbate the US economic imbalance. China should adhere to its righteous position, focus on its long-term interests, and accelerate its domestic reforms.
China Industrial Economics,2018,No. 07
【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the impact of global value chains status and participation on trade frictions through a three-country model from the perspective of industry benefits. It finds that China’s participation in global value chains restructuring has catalytic effect and lubricant effect on its own trade frictions. Based on the manufacturing data matching the TTBD and WIOD from 2000 to 2014, this paper finds through empirical analysis that the closer the position of China and its trading partners in the global value chains of an industry, the higher frequency of trade frictions between China and the trading partners. The greater the number of trade frictions reflected in related industries; The higher the relative global value chains participation of an industry in China, the easier it is to resolve the relevant trade frictions in the industry, and the shorter the duration of trade frictions. The same applies to the analysis of the above-mentioned conclusions in the Sino-US trade frictions. Therefore, as China’s manufacturing industry catches up and climbs in the global value chains, the intensification of trade frictions between China and the United States is inherently inevitable, and the frictions will be normalized, long-term, and complicated. For China, it is necessary to calmly deal with the catalyst effect involved in the reconstruction of global value chains and attach importance to the lubricant effect involved in the reconstruction of the value chains, to maintain a strategic focus on its own reform and opening up, and to unswervingly rely on external forces. Deepen reform and continue to enhance its position in the global value chains; at the same time, actively participate in the formulation and improvement of international economic rules, establish and improve the government’s response mechanism, build a corporate response system for international trade frictions, and actively respond to international trade frictions.
The development of preschool children’s inductive reasoning about weight: A cross-cultural comparison of Sino-US
Acta Psychologica Sinica,2018,Vol 50,No. 12
【Abstract】 Weight has been of interest to scientists from early in the study of cognitive development. More recent research indicates that preschool is an important transition period for using weight generally across tasks in the physical domain. For example, 4-year-olds, but not 3-year-olds, can choose a heavy versus a light object to make a balance with an intermediate weight tip and category objects by weight through observing others’ demonstration. In this research, we investigate when American (Study 1) and Chinese children (Study 2) can use verbal labels to make inductive reasoning about weight, and whether this ability is cross-cultural universal. In Study 1, two-to 6-year-old American children ( N = 100) were familiarized with three identical-appearing objects, two of them have one weight, the third one has another weight (e.g., two heavy, one light). The experimenter picked up one object and said “This is a dax.” Children were requested to find another “dax” from the left two objects and give it to the experimenter. If the experimenter labeled a heavy object, the child chose the heavy one of the two objects, s/he was scored as a 1. In contrast, if s/he chooses the light one, s/he was scored as a 0. There were two trials, thus, the total scores ranged from 0 to 2. The results indicated that there was a significant effect of age, H (4) = 41.75, p < 0.001. Children’s responses were compared to chance levels and the results suggested that the performance of 4-year-olds ( p = 0. 004), 5-year-olds ( p < 0.001), and 6-year-olds ( p < 0.001) was significantly above chance. However, the performance of 3-year-olds ( p = 0.16) was not significantly different from chance, the performance of 2-year-olds was marginal significantly below chance ( p = 0.055). To sum up, children can successfully pass the task by the age of 4. In Study 2, we examined whether Chinese children also can use the verbal label to make inductive reasoning about weight by age 4. Three-to 5-year-olds ( N = 60) were recruited to participate in the experiment. All the procedures were the same as Study 1 except that: (a) children were tested in their school; (b) two new verbal labels were created to label the objects-“delu” and “peru”. The results indicated that the effect of age was significant, H (2) = 18. 71, p < 0.001. The performance of 4-year-olds ( p < 0.001) and 5-year-olds ( p < 0.001) was significantly above chance. However, the performance of 3-year-olds ( p = 0.10) was not significantly different from chance. Overall, this research provided a timeline for the development of children using verbal label in inductive reasoning about invisible weight in the physical domain. At age 4, both American and Chinese children can reliably apply the verbal categorical label to weight. In addition, it appeared that age 3 to 4 was an important transition period for solving such task universally despite of cultural difference. The three possible reasons that could account for the developmental difference were discussed. Also discussed were the implications of cognitive development for science education.
An empirical analysis of competitiveness, complementarity, and growth potential of the sporting goods trade between China and the United States
China Sport Science,2018,Vol 38,No. 08
【Abstract】 Based on the data of six categories of sports supplies, including HS420, HS640, HS9504, HS9506, HS9507 and HS8, under the HS code in the UN Comtrade database, this paper uses the empirical research method to measure the trade complementarity, competitiveness and growth potential of sports supplies between China and the United States from 1997 to 2016. The research shows that China and the United States have strong complementarity in sports goods trade. The export of Chinese sporting goods and the import of American sporting goods are highly complementary, while the export of American sporting goods and the import of Chinese sporting goods are relatively weak, and there is a big difference in each category. The similarity between Chinese and American sporting goods in the world market is relatively low, the competitiveness of the two countries’ sporting goods in the world market is relatively weak, and the market structure of the export of sporting goods in the two countries is relatively large in terms of classification. China and the United States are close to each other in sports goods trade, and bilateral trade in sporting goods between the two countries has huge potential in the future.
China-U.S. strategic competition, the U.S. status anxiety, and Donald J. Trump Administration’s strategic adjustment toward China
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2018,Vol 32,No. 04
【Abstract】 Since the beginning of this century, with the ongoing power transfer between China and the United States, the two countries have been engaged in the ever-growing strategic competition in the areas of economy, security, and institutions. The U.S. has been increasingly worried that its economic influence in Asia, its scientific and technological superiority, its maritime hegemony in the Western Pacific and its institutional prestige are on the decrease as a result of China’s increasing power and heated status competition in those areas. The Trump Administration challenges the premise and rational of decades-long U.S. engagement policy toward China, defines China as the top strategic competitor of the United States of America, and takes a series of economic, political and security measures to balance China.
The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2018,Vol 35,No. 12
【Abstract】 Research objectives: Measuring and comparing the manufacturing development quality in China and the U.S.. Research methods: Based on WIOD dataset, it measures from three aspects: TFP in production processes, value acquisition ability and technical complexity in export link. Research findings: The growth rate of TFP in China’s manufacturing is higher than that in the U.S. from 2000 to 2014, and there is a catch-up effect; but China faces severe challenges of falling TFP growth rate after the financial crisis, and the catch-up effect becomes weak; TFP gap between China and the U.S. is large, and it becomes larger after the financial crisis. Manufacturing’s TFP in China was 39.89% of that in the U.S. in 2014, while TFP of high-tech industry was only 37.6% of that in the U.S.. The economic status index in China’s manufacturing export declined first and then increased with a V-shape trend, and they are always lower than that in the U.S.. With the increase of technology intensity in manufacturing, the U.S. economic status index rise, while the figure in China shows a downward trend. The gap of value-added ability in high-tech industry between China and the U.S. is greater than that in manufacturing. The export technological complexity of China’s manufacturing under the perspective of value-added show an overall upward trend. China’s export sophistication of manufacturing is always lower than that of the U.S., Germany and Japan, while the export sophistication of high-tech industry in China is higher than that in Germany and Japan, and lower than that in the United States. Research innovations: From the two aspects of production and export, TFP, economic status index in GVC and export technological sophistication are used to measure development quality of manufacturing for the first time. Research value: To provide accurate policy reference for implement of the manufacturing power strategy, and to provide key clues for understanding Sino-U.S. trade friction.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2018,Vol 32,No. 05
【Abstract】 Sino-US scientific and technological relations can be divided into four stages: preliminary exploration, steady development, deep relations, and uncertain progress. Although the scientific and technological strength of the United States is still strong, the Sino-US scientific and technological relations are affected by and faced with uncertainties with the rise of China’s scientific and technological strength. Over the years, under the guidance of science and technology diplomacy, China and the United States have made great achievements in cooperation in those areas. Affected by the influence of America’s domestic political and economic situation, the future direction of China’s development of scientific and technological, and the game of China and the United States and other countries, Sino-US scientific and technological relations will continue to “cross the river by feeling the stone.” There is still room for further cooperation between the two countries in such aspects as the global innovation village, the innovation park, the technology transfer center, and joint research centers.
China Industrial Economics,2018,No. 10
【Abstract】 As the development of the world economy, characterized by the deepening of global value chains, incomes across countries have become increasingly unbalanced, the U.S. has initiated its “rebalancing” strategies with the “Tax Cut and Job Act” as the starting point, as well as large-scale trade frictions with China. Under the “rebalance” of economic globalization, this paper started from a new perspective of China-U.S. economic and trade relations adjustment and the assessment of China-U.S. trade frictions effects based on global value chains. Employing Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and its database developed by Purdue University, based on the latest tariff lists released by China and the U.S., this paper decomposed the economic effects of the global value chain activities among China, the U.S. and their major trading partners triggered by the current large-scale trade frictions between the two countries in the context of U.S. tax cuts in detail. The fundamental coping strategies have been, ultimately, settled in mid-term to long-term responses to the “rebalance” of economic globalization. Findings in this paper showed that the global value chains have played as buffers to the China-U.S. trade frictions. Nevertheless, as the scale of the frictions growing, negative implications on China will be accumulated. However, the tax cut, as the cornerstone in the U.S. rebalancing strategies, plays an important role that may change the process of economic globalization, and the follow-up measures by the U.S. will be systematic package arrangements. Therefore, this paper proposed that China should strengthen its free trade agreement network based on global value chains, to seek the new closure of global value chains, and improve intellectual property rights protection while continuously carry on internal economic restructuring for the long-planned readjustment to China-U.S. trading relations. The simulation on the above-mentioned proposals has shown that restructuring new free trade agreements and improving intellectual property rights protection will not only alleviate the negative impact of China-U.S. trade frictions on China, but also cultivate new growth points, to promote China’s economic growth.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2018,Vol 32,No. 05
【Abstract】 Guided by the “America First” principle, the Trump administration has brought profound changes to America’s domestic and foreign policies. Under Trump’s presidency, the U.S. takes “repressive retrenchment” as its grand strategy, which not only exerts a far-reaching impact on the liberal international order, but also further complicates U.S.-China relations. The Trump administration repositions China as a “strategic competitor,” and promotes more negative perceptions of China among American strategists. The U.S.-China relations have become more competitive and contentious in economic, geopolitical, ideological, and other realms. The Trump administration increases pressures on China through the trade war, the Indo-Pacific strategy, and the “Taiwan card” among other measures, which reflects America’s burgeoning post-engagement policy toward China. China and the U.S. should be more adaptive to such competitiveness in their bilateral ties, and aware of the danger of the possible “New Cold War.” They need conduct high-quality strategic communications and prudently manage their interactions to reshape U.S.-China relations in positive manner.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2018,Vol 32,No. 04
【Abstract】 New developments in both the international situation and China-US relations have been driving innovations in the mode of diplomatic interactions between China and the US. The efficiency and vitality of the mode depended on the earnest efforts on both sides and have to be tested by time. Despite some major setbacks in the forty years since the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America established diplomatic relations, the mode of bilateral interactions proved successful in forging closer ties across the Pacific. As the two great powers become increasingly interdependent and their relationship assumes greater global significance, this evolution mode is also advancing, producing more institutionalized dialogues at various levels of both governments. Most notably, summit diplomacy has become a fixture in the mode, setting the pace and direction of future progress, and high-level, functional dialogues serve as platforms for coordination and consultation. However, the Trump administration’s viewing China as one of the US’ chief rivals poses a new challenge to China. Unless the US changes the current course, the existing mode of interactions cannot achieve its presumed functions, which are, keeping the bilateral ties on track, expanding areas of cooperation, managing and controlling disputes, and providing institutional guarantees.
The China-America Council of Commerce and Industry and Sino-U.S. economic relationship after the Second World War
Researches in Chinese Economic History,2018,No. 05
【Abstract】 Before the end of the Second World War, the immense potential of Chinese market after war aroused great interest of American business. With the purpose to seize the opportunities of trade with and investment in China, the China-America Council of Commerce and Industry emerged. This organization with numerous American firms attracted not only effectively mobilized the initiatives of its members, but also had their resources integrated and optimized, which enabled it to act beyond the limitations of individual business with strong intelligence capability and political influence, and play an important role in rebuilding the postwar economic and trade relations between China and U. S. Confronted with the inclination of the Nationalist Government to continue the policy of controlled economy after war, the China-America Council of Commerce and Industry made great effort to exert influence on the Chinese politicians during their visits to the U. S., attempting to lead the Nationalist Government to adopt the liberalist economic policy that features protecting private enterprises and encouraging foreign trade and investment. Although the U. S. Government and business worked in cooperation on negotiating with China, they also disagreed on the issue of investment in China. The aid provided by the U. S. Government to China posed a threat to the private investment of American business, and indirectly intensified the expansion of state capital in China as well, obstructing the American private enterprises in developing Sino-U. S. trade and investment in China. The economic information of China selectively collected and spread by the China-America Council of Commerce and Industry based on its subjective wishes misled both the U. S. Government and business, leading to their ignorance of the tough economic situation of China in the early postwar period, and their underestimation of difficulty for the American enterprises to enter the Chinese market.
Financial rationale and power of the US dollar system: monetary and financial background of the Sino-US trade disputes
International Economic Review,2018,No. 06
【Abstract】 The Sino-US trade disputes not only expose our misunderstanding of the United States, but prompt us to think about the deep-level background of the Trump administration’s willful “America First” behavior. This paper argues that the current disputes between the United States and the rest of the world, especially the trade disputes with China, are built on the country’s strong financial and monetary advantages. For a long time, the theory of “America’s decline” has only focused on the topic of the decline itself and turned a blind eye to the changes in its economic structure and the resulting political and economic implications, especially the changes in the core interests of the United States. The US economic structure has been increasingly finance-oriented since the 1970s, which has led to two important results: one is the formation and strengthening of the US dollar system; and the other is the formation of the global industrial chain featuring the US technological innovation and its transfer of its manufacturing capacities to other countries. It is an important background or guarantee for Trump’s launch of trade protectionist actions. The formation and development of the US dollar system is the most crucial change of the world economy in the 20 th century. It allows the United States to build a world control system that is totally different from the hegemonic countries in the past. Its exploitation and control of the world has become more secretive; more importantly, it has changed the long-standing financial rules of mankind, namely, the creditor-centered rule has been changed into the debtor-centered rule. Such a change is an important foundation for all its economic behaviors in today’s international community. The implementation of debtor-centered rule is mainly backed by the US dollar system. The core interest of the system lies in maintenance of an international monetary order that allows the US to take advantage of the debtor-centered rule to borrow heavily without being restrained by any other country. Based on the discussion of the financial rationale and operational mechanism of the US dollar system, this paper analyzes the nature of the system and its global strength, before putting forward China’s overall strategy for dealing with the Sino-US trade disputes and its future development.
Economic Geography,2018,Vol 38,No. 11
【Abstract】 The focus on geopolitical competition among major powers is the power. Some western scholars believed that the increasing economic influence of China has not only made an intense competition with the US global power in space, but also changed the niche rankings of international power formed after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Therefore, how to analyze the changes of economic power niche between China and the US from a global perspective, has become the key research question. Based on the theory of niche and ecological niche relationship model, this paper estimates economic power niche breadth, niche overlap and niche competition by adopting the data of GDP, manufacturing added value, merchandise trade volume, FDI outflows and high-tech exports of China and the US from 2000 to 2016. The results are as follows.First, compared with the US, the niche breadth of the economic power in China has steadily risen. Second, the niche overlap index of the economic power both in China and the US has showed an increasing trend. The Chinese niche overlap index of the economic power onto the US surpasses that of the US onto China after 2014. Third, the competition relationship of economic power niche between China and the US has showed a W-shape variation. The niche competition index between China and the US decreases in 2000–2004, the index increases in 2004–2008 and declines in 2008-2010, and the index rises after 2010, which reflects dynamic changes in the niche competition of the economic power between China and the US.
Double dilemma and dynamic balance: Sino-US leadership competition in the Asia-Pacific region and the strategic choice of US Asia-Pacific allies
World Economics and Politics,2018,No. 03
【Abstract】 As the competition for dominance between China and the United States intensifies, the strategic choices of Asia-Pacific countries between China and the United States have been greatly affected, and Asia-Pacific allies of the United States are, to some extent, faced with the double dilemmas of alliance and taking a side. The existing studies have analyzed how US Asia-Pacific allies deal with the competition between China and the United States from four perspectives, namely domestic politics, alliance politics, structural realism and neoclassical realism. Based on the perspective of neoclassical realism, the author tries to analyze the “dynamic balance” strategy of US Asia-Pacific allies between China and America. System pressure is mainly focused internationally while strategic preference and common interests are mainly focused on domestically. The study finds that in order to alleviate the double dilemmas they are faced with, US Asia-Pacific allies, due to the situation of the double dilemmas, will strike a dynamic balance between China and the United States based on strategic preference and common interests. Their strategic choices show that the one-way dynamic balance or two-way dynamic balance between China and the United States should be given priority for the time being. In order to understand more clearly the dynamic balance strategy of US Asia-Pacific allies, the author explores in a case study on “the ROK’s diversion” caused by the establishment of THAAD in the ROK in 2016 and “the Philippines’ diversion” caused by Rodrigo Duterte ’s coming to power. Its policy implication to China is that US Asia-Pacific allies do not always follow the United States, but seek to strike a dynamic balance between the United States and China and take into consideration simultaneously economic and security interests as far as possible. China should adjust the strategic preference or interest relations of US Asia-Pacific allies as possible as it could, thus influencing their dynamic balance strategies.
Analysis of dependence relationship between international oil price and Chinese stock prices: evidence from different industry indices
Chinese Journal of Management Science,2018,Vol 26,No. 11
【Abstract】 As two important markets in modern economy, oil market and stock market play an important role in economic activities. The relationship between the two is of great significance to the study of price fluctuation and risk transmission between markets. This paper analyzed the dependence relationship between international oil prices and stock prices of China and the United States through the Vine Copula model, and applied the obtained dependence relationship to risk management. Using international oil price and stock price indexes of ten industries in China and the United States to model the dependence relationship, the corresponding dependence structure and dependence relationship were obtained. The industry stock price index and oil price with strong dependence relationship with oil price were selected to construct the portfolio, and the dependence relationship was used to simulate the yield data to measure the risk of the portfolio. The empirical results showed that there are significant differences between China and the United States in the dependence between the industry stock price index and the international oil price. The dependence between the industry stock price index of China and the international oil price is weaker than that between the industry stock price index of the United States and the international oil price. At the same time, the dependence relationship was used to form the portfolio, and the risk of the two groups of portfolios was measured. The result of risk measurement showed that Vine Copula-GARCH can well estimate the portfolio risk composed of variables with strong dependence relationship.
Northeast Asia Forum,2018,Vol 27,No. 06
【Abstract】 Under the Obama’s presidency, the rebalancing strategy of the U.S. in Northeast Asia had partially abandoned the original model of “off-shore balancing” to a fresh new type of mixed model which comprises “selective intervention,” “new liberal internationalism” and “indirect approach.” Through adopting the selective intervention strategy, America has been urged to devote itself to maintaining the absolutely strategic dominance over China in Northeast Asia. Guided by the new liberal internationalism, the U.S. has established a network of alliance based on the nature of democratic states in this region. Then, according to the indirect approach strategy, it exploits antagonism and hostility among the regional countries to strengthen the cohesion of its alliance system, disturb the psychological stability of China, keep a kind of moderate tension in Northeast Asia, and try to form an advantageous leading position of itself. In the Trump administration, the indirect approach comes to a new height, and meanwhile the combination of the mixed model also represents some changes obviously. These changes not only intensify the strategic distrust between China and the U.S., but also aggravate the situation of China’s peripheral relation. Therefore, in order to buffer the tensions of two great powers, China needs to take measures to relieve the strategic distrust on three levels. Firstly, China should enhance the information communication with the Unites States. Secondly, China needs to reach a strategic compromise with the U.S. on non-core interests. Thirdly, China needs to reach a basic consensus on “shared principle” with the United States. Meanwhile, China needs to strengthen the strategic cooperation with the U.S. in Northeast Asia, create a sound cooperative relationship between China and its neighboring countries based on the ideas of “amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness.”
Contrastive analysis of Taijiquan and health promotion in China and the United States in the past 20 years
China Sport Science,2018,Vol 38,No. 04
【Abstract】 Using CiteSpace V software to visualize the literature on Taijiquan and health promotion in China and the United States (the US: 404 SCI literature; China: 247 core journals). The development path, hot evolution and knowledge structure of Taijiquan and health promotion research in China and the United States in the past 20 years are analyzed from three aspects of basic situation, high-center key words, and co-cited network atlas. The results show that there are differences between the two countries in terms of the number of papers, the number and quality of academic platforms, and the core of high-yield authors; taking the core words of high center as the core, the development of Taijiquan in recent 20 years has been divided into stages, and the path of development has been analyzed; the knowledge structure of the study in China and the United States, as well as the subject of each knowledge group, are determined through the analysis of knowledge atlas, and the formation and development trend of the knowledge group is analyzed; finally, the knowledge groups formed by the two countries are compared from three aspects: research philosophy, development trend and research content.
Global Law Review,2018,Vol 40,No. 06
【Abstract】 In the field of international technology transfer (ITT), the current “market for technology” and “capital for technology” modes adopted by China have been challenged by the US and other developed countries. On the one hand, the US has brought China to the WTO for measures relating to forced technology transfer, which it considers inconsistent with the national treatment provisions of the TRIPS Agreement. On the other hand, the US and some countries argue that some investment projects from China are aimed at buying high technologies, which are in essence “technology purchase,” and that they will conduct much more strict examination on Chinese investments in the following years. The difficulty in the settlement of the dispute over international transfer of technology lies in the fact that the dispute involves both trade and investment issues and therefore the key to its solution is the identification of the nature of relevant Chinese measures in addition to the examination of the legitimacy of these measures from the perspective of international trade rules. Moreover, it is also not appropriate to make simple comparison between the administrative regulatory measures in international transfer of technology and the Contract Law (private law) or to determine, on the basis of such comparison, that these measures are inconsistent with the national treatment provisions of the TRIPS Agreement. Technology transfer has become a major sensitive issue between China, the US and other countries in the world, so the study on the regulatory pattern of technology transfer between main WTO members will help China better understand the trend of regulation of technology transfer, resolve the disputes over technology transfer and participate in negotiations regarding technology transfer.
Northeast Asia Forum,2017,Vol 26,No. 02
【Abstract】 The “freedom of navigation in the South China Sea” is the “Sunday punch” of America’s Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy towards China. Avoiding the trap of “freedom of navigation in the South China Sea” is a real challenge that China has to face in defending national sovereignty, maintaining international law, and realizing the dream of maritime power. America is conducting vessel or aircraft freedom of navigation operations under the guise of maintaining the “freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.” Its purpose is to maintain American hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. The essence of the dispute between China and the U.S. over the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is the competition of strategic contradictions and strategic interests between the maritime hegemon and the new-type maritime power. Its legal inducement is the cognitive differences on the principle of freedom of navigation. It is also the continuation of “Freedom of the Seas” of idealism and “Freedom of Navigation Program” of realism. The continuous fermentation of the “freedom of navigation in the South China Sea” issue can result in serious impacts on China’s maritime military security, expanding maritime strategic space and the public opinion environment of the rise in the sea. China should think of ways to solve the issue against the background of the maritime power strategy. Firstly, China should maintain strategic focus, and strive for the period of strategic opportunities to build itself into a maritime power. Secondly, China should strengthen the strategic dialogue with the U.S., and build a stable mechanism of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Thirdly, China should take diplomatic initiative in international public opinion, maritime legal order and regional maritime public goods, and promote the construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea appropriately in a timely manner.
Dynamic relationship among producer services, manufacturing industry and economic growth: empirical analysis based on the data of the US and China
Technology Economics,2017,Vol 36,No. 02
【Abstract】 Selecting China’s annual data from 1978 to 2013 and the US annual data from 1960 to 2015, this paper simulates and analyzes the dynamic relationship among producer services, manufacturing industry and economic growth in two countries through the vector autoregressive model. The results show as follows. Compared with China, the short-term effect of producer services on manufacturing industry and economic growth in the US is stronger and faster; the short-term effect of economic growth on producer services in China is more significant than that in the US, and its decreasing speed is slow; the development of producer services and manufacturing industry is the most important factor affecting the development of the manufacturing industry; the development of producer services is the most important factor affecting its own development and economic growth.
Comparison of influence factors of transaction costs of construction projects in China and the US: based on survey data of China and the US
Technology Economics,2017,Vol 36,No. 02
【Abstract】 This paper constructs the hypothetical model for the influence paths of determinants of the transaction costs of construction projects. Then by using the survey data of China and the US, it validates the research hypothesis by the structural equation modeling. The results are as follows. The uncertainty of behaviors of owners has a positive effect on transaction costs, and that effect in China is greater than that in the US; the uncertainty of contractors’ behavior has a positive effect on transaction costs, and that in the US is greater than that in China; the uncertainty of transaction environment and mechanism have negative impacts on the efficiency of project management, and that in China is greater than that in the US; the uncertainty of trading environment and mechanism has a negative effect on transaction costs, while project management efficiency has a positive impact on transaction costs.
Cross-border transmission of term premium and linkages of long-term interest rates between China and the US: evidence from a dynamic term structure model with unspanned macro risks
Financial Economics Research,2017,Vol 32,No. 03
【Abstract】 By adopting the treasury bond spot rate expected yield from March 2006 to September 2016 as sample data and constructing arbitrage-free affine dynamic term structure models with unspanned macro risks, this paper decomposes long-term interest rate into two parts, that is, the average of current and expected short-term interest rates and term premium. The empirical finding shows that linkage of long-term interest rate between China and the US is mainly from the term premium rather than the expected average of short-term interest rate, which helps to explain the phenomenon about “short-term independence, long-term linkage” of the treasury bond interest rate between China and the US. The cross-border transmission of term premium rate is consistent with mechanism of “global financial cycle,” meaning that the link between financial markets of the two countries is not only the transfer of capital price and volume, but also the transfer of risks. Therefore, it is suggested to reduce policy uncertainty, prepare for external risks and interest rate changes; implement macro-prudential policies, mitigate cross-border transmission of market risk; enhance financial international and monetary cooperation, and actively promote the internationalization of RMB.
Global symbiosis system theory and the construction of a new model of major-country relations between China and the United States ①
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2017,Vol 31,No. 01
【Abstract】 All things in the global system are interrelated, interacted, interplayed and mutually transformational. The interdependence theory of global symbiosis system theory indicates the necessity to optimize this global system. The interdependence between China and the United States is on the rise in the global system, which is laying a foundation for a new model of major-country relations between China and the United States. For constructing this new model of major-country relations, to establish a new kind of stable strategic relationship is a necessary condition. The way of gaming and adjusting between these two strategic cultures is the critical path to such construction.
Major differences in the Chinese and American ways of thinking and their implications on a new type of major-country relations between China and the U.S.
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies,2017,No. 04
【Abstract】 Differences in the way of thinking between Chinese and American people are enlightening on building “a new type of major country relations.” They are critical to understand what major disputes might exist between China and the U.S. and how the two countries should solve them. Chinese and Americans follow very different ways of thinking. By contrast, the Chinese prefer a dialectic, relational, organic and outside-in way of thinking, while Americans favor a logical, generic, mechanical and inside-out way of thinking. Those differences in the way of thinking to some extent make China and the U.S. two very different players in the international arena. Since the interaction between China and the U.S. involves not only their divergent ways of actions, but also their contrasting ways of thinking, it is necessary for the two sides, in their efforts of building a new type of major-country relations, to pay closer attention to their different ways of thinking, to have mutual empathy, to understand their strategic behaviors from the other’s side, and to increasingly build up their mutual strategic trust.
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies,2017,No. 01
【Abstract】 China and the US are the two most important major powers in the Asia Pacific region. As the gap in power between the two states continues to narrow, competition between them has intensified with increasing geopolitical influence and strategic implications. This has made the contest between China and the US over leadership in Asia Pacific increasingly evident. Under these circumstances, the question of what type of strategy the two states adopt to engage in peaceful competition is most critical. This article attempts to propose a new approach to better understand the competition over regional leadership between the two powers: the advantages-resisting strategy. An advantages-resisting strategy aims to strategically undermine an opponent’s strategic advantages, and weaken its ability to gain a dominant position. This is accomplished primarily by a process of enhancing one’s own capabilities, creating institutional advantages, and preventing an opponent from using its power. Together such efforts function to check, obstruct and ultimately weaken any dominant position that an opponent might otherwise gain. Such a strategy is based on extreme expectations of directions states will take, is highly targeted, resists cooperation, and is highly complex. A consideration of the strategic behavior of the US and China in the Asia Pacific region illustrates that both states are applying an advantages-resisting strategy, but that the outcome of such a strategy is highly uncertain. The key will be whether the strategic competition between the US and China can result in a strategic consensus over shared leadership in the region.
Mechanisms of small countries’ balanced diplomacy towards great powers and Malaysia’s practice towards China and the U.S.
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies,2017,No. 02
【Abstract】 Based on their power and interests, small countries often choose the balanced diplomacy towards great powers to maximize their national interests. According to different criteria, small countries’ balanced diplomacy towards great powers may be classified into different types. Furthermore, some necessary conditions both at home and abroad are needed for small countries to implement the balanced diplomacy towards great powers. The authors argue that it is reasonable to differentiate small/great or powerful/weak countries in a “multi-dimension and multi-factor” perspective, that small nations around China or those in the former USSR area often adopt the balanced diplomacy towards great powers and that it is not acceptable to confuse “balance of power,” “balancing” and “balanced diplomacy.” The paper discusses the mechanisms of small countries’ balanced diplomacy towards great powers and the practice of Malaysia’s balanced diplomacy towards China and the U.S, analyzes its motives, characteristics and conditions, and draws some conclusions with important implication for China.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2017,Vol 31,No. 02
【Abstract】 Chinese and American exceptionalisms situate on the different ends of a spectrum. While American exceptionalism rests on the extraordinary superiority of the United States, Chinese exceptionalism is based on uniqueness of China. American exceptionalism insists that the American mode of development is the best in the world and universally applicable, so it will be better to follow its example for other countries in an effort of Americanization; while Chinese exceptionalism, favoring a scenario of leaving me alone instead, denies the universal applicability of many international concepts and norms. Therefore, it refuses to follow others and vise versa. The differences between those two exceptionalisms reflect divergent strategic thinking of China and the United States on their preferences of defining strategic goals, threats, means, principles, linchpins, and avoidance of strategic taboos. To a great extent, these divergent exceptionalisms derive from the different ways of thinking between Chinese and American people. Relatively speaking, Chinese prefer a dialectic, relational, organic and outside-in way of thinking, while Americans favor a logical, generic, mechanical and inside-out way of thinking.
Foreign Affairs Review,2017,Vol 34,No. 02
【Abstract】 The constructive and productive role of language has been increasingly appreciated since the Third Great Debate in late 1980s. However, most of such research focuses on what language constructs, namely, rule, norms and identity, and pays little attention to the mechanism through which the constructive function of language is realized. Pervasive in language, metaphors are basic tools for human cognition and can shed light on that mechanism. Drawing on cognitive linguistics and political psychology, this paper proposes a framework for analyzing the role of metaphors in constructing foreign policy. Two contrasting metaphors of “stakeholder” and “Thucydides’s Trap” are examined within the framework, which reveals that these different metaphors help shape different foreign policies. Finally, we analyze the metaphor of “new model of major-country relationship” and provide suggestions for its diffusion so as to effectively frame Sino-U.S. relations.
A comparative study of U.N. peacekeeping operations of China and the U.S. and the potential for cooperation
The Journal of International Studies,2017,Vol 38,No. 04
【Abstract】 As two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, China and the United States have both made great contributions to the U.N. peacekeeping operations. Over the course of peacekeeping operations, however, the two countries have different priorities, principles, and influences. The U.S. has committed more in terms of finance, training, and equipment, while China has sent more personnel for peacekeeping operations. In recent years, China has also significantly increased its financial contributions and made greater efforts to train and recruit professionals in important positions. As regards peacekeeping norms, China emphasizes the adherence to the three principles of peacekeeping on the premise of respecting sovereignty and non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs. the United States, on the other hand, usually promotes its democratic value and has a relatively low standard for the use of force. Furthermore, the United States has exerted more influence than China in terms of agenda-setting for U.N. peacekeeping operations. In the future, China and the United States could complement each other with their respective advantages in U.N. peacekeeping operations and involvement in international and regional security affairs under the framework of the United Nations. Therefore, the potential is huge for the two countries to collaborate on the U.N. peacekeeping issue.
Inherent mechanism and reality of the interaction among the three powers of China, Russia and the U.S.
International Economic Review,2017,No. 04
【Abstract】 Donald Trump’s winning of the U.S. presidency has shifted the global attention to the interaction among the three powers of China, Russia and the U.S. This paper analyzes the inherent mechanism of the structural conflicts among big powers and examines the differences between the U.S. and Russia and between China and the U.S. before coming to the conclusion that the U.S. and Russia have wider differences than the U.S. and China. The paper argues that Trump’s winning of the U.S. presidency will not alter the fundamental landscape of China-U.S.-Russia relations; and although they face challenges, China and the U.S. will have more opportunities to improve their relations. The paper also analyzes the importance of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation from the dimensions of national strategic security, world pattern and order, as well as national development strategy.
The story of Chinese laborers and American Expeditionary Forces on the Western Front during the First World War and the shared history of Sino-American relations ①
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2017,Vol 31,No. 06
【Abstract】 Over ten thousand Chinese laborers worked for American Expeditionary Forces in Europe during the First World War. Using archival and other sources from China, the U.S., France and elsewhere, this paper examines the rich yet rarely studied history of the interactions between Chinese and Americans and its significance in Sino-American relations from the perspective of transnational and shared history. The paper argues that this unique story was an important chapter in the shared history of the two nations. Chinese laborers contributed not only to the U.S war efforts but also to mutual understandings between the Chinese and Americans. Their journey to Europe even contributed to the building of a new world order. These laborers have played a role of messengers between Chinese and Americans and their extraordinary story with American Expeditionary Forces in Europe should be treated as an important shared legacy for both Chinese and Americans. When the world commemorates the centenary of the end of the First World War in 2018, it is important for us to pay attention to the importance of Chinese laborers in the war and in the history of Sino-American relations. This paper also tries to show how to use the new perspective of the shared history to study Sino-American relations.
Rule internalization and rule externalization: the internal logic of China and US participation in global governance
World Economics and Politics,2017,No. 09
【Abstract】 In essence, global governance is rule-based governance. In the field of global governance, the game between countries is increasingly manifested as competition for the power to formulate rules. Due to differentiated comprehensive strengths, hegemonic states and emerging countries select different ways to participate in global governance, which restricts the adjustment space of their policies towards global governance after their strength has changed. As the relative decline in strength, the United States has been facing increasing difficulties in participating in global governance through its long upheld rule externalization. In the new situations, the United States needs to adjust its inward participation in global governance to meet the basic requirements of global governance for equal cooperation. Because a series of policy adjustments that the US government has carried out did not change its rule externalization participation, it will be a long period for United States to continue its action defying the global trend in the global governance. With the rise of China’s strength, the rule constraints of China’s participation in global governance simply through rule internalization have been increasingly prominent, and China has naturally pursued to reform the global governance system and led the new international rules. This process will be very long for China because it not only depends on the continuous rise of its own strength, but also is hindered by the huge inertia of the established rules. This means that the “formulation-acceptance” relationship between the developed countries represented by the United States and the emerging markets and developing countries represented by China in the global governance rules began to change, and global governance will thus enter a new round of fierce competition and game.
The international political significance of Chinese and US foreign aid: as seen in United Nations general assembly voting
Social Sciences in China,2017,No. 03
【Abstract】 The influence that China’s rapid rise has exerted upon Sino-American relationships and the existing international order is an important theoretical topic in current research on international relations. We conducted an empirical study to see whether and how China has affected the results gained by the US use of aid for“vote buying”in UNGA. The results show that China’s foreign aid has used the mechanisms of foreign policy preferences, fragility and credibility to weaken the US ability to control voting in UNGA through its foreign aid. However, this is not a subjective strategic choice on China’s part but the objective result of its economic development. If we start from the foreign aid gaming of China and the US in the international political context, looking directly at the structural conflicts and competition actually existing between the two will not only help us understand the difficulty and obstacles confronting China’s future development path, but will also help us grasp the necessity and difficulty of risk control in Sino-American relations.
Cass Journal of Political Science,2017,No. 01
【Abstract】 In recent years, some Western scholars advocate the notion of Thucydides trap as the premise of the prediction that a war is doomed to break out between China and the United States in the process of power transition around the world. Sourced from the theory of power transition and security dilemma, the theory of Thucydides trap is based upon three prerequisite conditions. The first is the inevitability that emerging countries will resort to military force to change the existing international system, the second is the anarchy of the international system, and the third is the presumption that the costs of the hegemonic war outweigh the benefits. However, all these preconditions are unmatched for the objective reality of world politics and contrary to the practices of China’s peaceful development as well as the mainstream trend of Sino-US relationship. Therefore, it is an essential fallacy to apply the notion of Thucydides trap mechanically for the analytic research on the future relation between China and the US.
Do investors’ distorted beliefs in economic fundamentals affect equity prices? A comparative study of China and the United States
Economic Research Journal,2017,Vol 52,No. 08
【Abstract】 By relaxing the complete rationality assumption imposed in the Lucas (1978) consumption-based asset pricing (CAPM) model, we study a new CAPM model in an endowment economy, which incorporates investors’ distorted beliefs in economic fundamentals. When there exists discrepancy between investors’ subjective beliefs and the market objective operating mechanism, our model can capture many well-documented economic anomalies, such as the United States equity premium puzzle and accumulative excess returns. In addition, our paper addresses the low correlation between China’s consumption growth rate and its equity premiums. This paper further establishes a new GMM estimation method, which works with non-mathematical expectations. As current GMM estimation methods can only deliver correct estimations under mathematical expectations, our new estimation method overcomes one of the biggest challenges faced by the current GMM literature. Based on our new model and robust estimation procedure, we find that investors in China have significantly low sensitivity to changes in mean levels of economics fundamentals than those in the United States. Investors in China are prone to react to changes in the volatilities of economic fundamentals. The results of our paper help to explain a well-known confusing phenomenon in China: that the stock market’s performance has been deviating from its real economy for a long time. Numerous studies have explored the United States stock market and found a strong equilibrium between the stock market and real economy (Fama, 1990; Schwert, 1990; Cheung and Ng, 1998). Since 1990, China has been experiencing rapid development in many aspects. Unfortunately, the performance of its stock market has been contradicting investor performance and the government’s expectations, while deviating from the real economy (Han and Hong, 2014). China’s quarterly average consumption growth rate per capita was about 1.81% from 2002 to 2015, about six times as large as that in the United States. Although the United States has experienced low and smooth consumption growth for many years, the correlation between equity premiums and its consumption growth is about 50%, about four times larger than in China. This paper aims to address this puzzling phenomenon in China, that is, why China’s stock market does not react positively to its real economy. As reported in the literature, investors are not rational in all aspects in China (Chen and Zhou, 2004; Chen, 2005a). A well-known survey conducted by Greenwood and Shleifer (2014) reported that investors act on their distorted beliefs, even in the United States, where the stock market is relatively mature. Traditional assumptions on investor behaviors assume that investors are rational in all aspects and that they can correctly perceive all relevant operating mechanisms in the stock market. This survey’s results cast serious doubt on such fully rational assumptions widely imposed in CAPM models. We study the stock markets of the United States and China from 2002 to 2015, which enables us to explore this possibility by allowing extrapolation biases on economic fundamentals. Such extrapolation helps to explain several economic anomalies, especially the low correlation between China’s consumption growth and economic fundamentals. The subjective beliefs of investors deviate from the objective beliefs because investors hold extrapolation biases on economic fundamentals, which leads to subjective expectations in Euler equations. In our study, we propose a method for adopting GMM in a framework with non-mathematical expectations. This approach enables future relevant studies to conduct estimations and statistical inference by incorporating additional psychological evidence into the asset pricing literature. Based on our robust estimation method, our paper provides some constructive suggestions on how to better regulate China’s stock market, and sheds some light on how to let the stock market lend stronger support to the real economy.
The strategic thinking of unilateral consensus and the evolution of Sino-U.S. strategic cooperation ①
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2017,Vol 31,No. 02
【Abstract】 To get to know the strategic consensus between the two great powers is the basic way of understanding Sino-U.S. strategic cooperation. The paper intends to explore China’s strategic thinking and its international political consequences in the process of Sino-U.S. strategic cooperation. China demonstrates such traits of its strategic thinking as seeking strategic consensus, overall view of the situation, dialectical harmony in the past few decades when dealing with the relations with the U.S. The “shelving” thinking used in resolving the Taiwan question has produced the international political effect of having a co-existence of cooperation and conflict. It is the power structure and its changes between China and the U.S. that result in the creation and evolution of Chinese unilateral consensus and then the development of cooperation and conflict between the two countries.
Contemporary Korea,2017,No. 03
【Abstract】 The changes in the international status between China and the US can be heeded with the economic and military strength, the involvement in major international institutions and the international influence as indicators. As an ally of the US and a strategic partner of China, the ROK faces both opportunities and challenges in the strength changes between the US and China. In terms of opportunities, the rapid development of Chinese economy can contribute to ROK’s economic development; the improved Sino-ROK relations are conducive to the settlement of the nuclear issue on the Peninsula; ROK can act as mediator between the US and China and thus to enhance its international status. On the part of challenges, the imbalance of power and threat on the Korean Peninsula can lead to the escalation of the Korean nuclear and missile crisis, increasing the threat to the ROK; Sino-ROK partnership and the US-ROK alliance put ROK into a dilemma; China’s rise makes ROK concerned about the economic and geopolitical threats from China. ROK’s strategic options are based on these opportunities and challenges. In this case, the ROK has refrained from a balancing strategy between China and the US and has retightened US-ROK alliance with the US through the deployment of THAAD and the signing of the GSOMIA.
“Super third party”: Japan's opinion on the new type of great power relations between China and the United States
Northeast Asia Forum,2016,Vol 25,No. 01
【Abstract】 Japan is the “super third party” of the new type of great power relations between China and the United States. China and the United States should pay great attention to Japan as a variable in their establishment of “a new type of great power relations.” Japan has been skeptical of the new type of great power relations between China and the United States and even interpreted it as a new type of military great power relations between China and the US. The pessimists of Japan believe that the new type of great power relations between China and the US will harm the Japan-US alliance and the occupation of the Diaoyu Islands, while the optimists believe that it will be helpful to strengthen Japan-US, Japan-Russia, and Japan-UK relations. Japanese scholars emphasize on developing new diplomacy wisdom to improve Sino-Japanese relationship and urging China and the United States to pay more attention to Japan's position as the third party. In order to build the new type of great power relations between China and the United States, China should establish China-US-Japan trilateral dialogue mechanism so as to realize effective and balanced interaction among the three countries in the Asia-Pacific region. In the trilateral relationship, the role of Japan as the “super third party” should be fully emphasized to act as a bridge of China-US communications.
Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP): geopolitical influence, the Sino-US game and China's options
Northeast Asia Forum,2016,Vol 25,No. 02
【Abstract】 After several years of hard negotiations, the TPP was finally reached in 2015. The reach of the TPP will have a significant geo-influence in the Asia Pacific region, including the geopolitical and geo-economic influence. The reach of the TPP has different influences for China and the US. The TPP is of great significance to the US, but the actual negative impact on China is relatively limited. For the TPP competition arising from regional and international economic rules, China should give necessary attention, because it reflects the new development trend of the US strategy. Although the TPP has no great impact on China, China should take various measures to be on guard against and deal with the TPP. These measures should not only be based on dealing with the TPP itself, but also should focus on enhancing China's international economic competitiveness and influence via the TPP and help China build a new pattern of all-round and high-level opening up.
Situation of competition and prospect of cooperation between China and the United States in the Indochina Peninsula
Southeast Asian Affairs,2016,No. 03
【Abstract】 Indochina countries are China’s traditional friendly partners. As China’s influence is growing fast and the cooperation between China and the region is deepening, the Indochina Peninsula has become China’s strategic support in peripheral strategy, and important cooperative partner in promoting the “One Belt and One Road” Initiative. Since taking office in 2009, the Obama administration has implemented the “Asia-Pacific rebalance” strategy with Indochina Peninsula as its important “forward position.” China and the U.S. have carried out intense competition in terms of political influence, economic dominance and soft power in the region since then. From China’s perspective, on the one hand, it should be vigilant against the United States’ actions in the Indochina region, and on the other hand, it also needs to control differences and competition with the United States, and explore bilateral coordination and cooperation, in order to eliminate adverse effects caused by competition on China-U.S. relationship and regional stability and development.
Adversary diplomacy, strategic frame shifting and the formation of the great triangle among China, the US and the Soviet Union: a focus on the negotiation on the Joint Communique of the United States of America and the People's Republic of China on August
Foreign Affairs Review,2016,Vol 33,No. 05
【Abstract】 China’s strategy of “joining the US against the Soviet Union” led to the regression of the US policy towards China and triggered the negotiation on arms sales to China’s Taiwan. To safeguard the strategic foundation of China-US relations, China established the scenario of imposing pressure under the bilateral frame and formed a situation of mandatory diplomacy. However, the plan was inefficient and slow in imposing pressure on the US, so China was forced to shift to the strategic frame for bargaining counters and find a way out of the negotiation stalemate by reconciliation with the Soviet Union. As the key to success of the negotiation, China shifted from the bilateral frame of policy towards the US to the strategic frame for bargaining counters. The strategic frame adjustment ended the “one-line” strategy, and China started to manage great triangle by a doctrine of equilibrium. The success of the negotiation also proved the effectiveness and reasonability for China to handle China-US relations and diplomatic frictions by diplomacy. Great-power diplomacy should make full use of rich bargaining counters and flexibly adjust foreign policies in line with the peaceful essence.
South Asian Studies,2016,No. 02
【Abstract】 In response to development in the South Asia region over the past several years, the US and China have both adjusted their strategies towards the region, generating some concerns and uncertainties of Pakistan, a key regional power. In order to better assess future opportunities and challenges for China with regard to Pakistan, a full understanding of these adjustments as well as Pakistan’s perceptions and responses to them is critical. This will assist China’s future strategy in South Asia, and support the smooth implementation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which has become a flagship project of the “One Belt One Road” Initiative. This paper offers an analysis of strategies of the US and China in South Asia respectively and makes comparison between them, arguing that the key to a successful South Asian strategy rests on “two balances.” The pragmatic strategy of the US in South Asia lacks sustainability and stability when it comes to balancing India-Pakistan relations, which results in increasingly negative Pakistani perceptions of the US and a passive response that pushes Pakistan towards further hedging against India. This is in striking contrast to the China-Pakistan all-weather strategic cooperative partnership, which has been stable over time and weathered a range of challenges and difficulties.
World Economics and Politics,2016,No. 04
【Abstract】 As a rising financial power and an established financial hegemon respectively, China and the U.S. are the most important players in international financial diplomacy. With the global financial crisis in 2008 as a watershed, the two countries’ international financial statuses have changed greatly, yet in opposite directions. To be more specific, the world is witnessing China’s strengthening financial status and America’s relatively weakening position, which facilitates China’s assertive financial diplomacy and makes America adopt a defensive financial diplomacy. The financial diplomatic game between the two countries manifests in their competition in shaping and dominating international financial institutions. On the one hand, China is taking efforts to promote the reform of the existing international financial institutions and seek to play a leading role in the building of new institutions so as to consolidate a favorable institutional basis for its financial rise. On the other hand, the U.S. is trying to postpone or even obstruct the reform of international financial institutions and undermine China’s endeavor in building new international institutions, in order to maintain its financial hegemony in the world. The competition between the two countries over international financial institutions is actually for financial status, for capabilities to provide international financial public goods and for legitimacy of their engagement in international financial institutions. Whether their behaviors become increasingly compatible with or exclusive of each other will exert a lasting impact on international financial governance in the future.
Northeast Asia Forum,2016,Vol 25,No. 02
【Abstract】 Disputes of sovereignty and maritime rights in South China Sea region between China and Southeast Asian countries exist for a long time. Historically, there are several international crises during which the United States have involved in. The current development of the South China Sea dispute is closely related to the US Asia-Pacific “rebalancing” strategy. The United States will not stay out in any possible crises of the South China Sea. Under the tight situation and the active US involvement, China should learn from past lessons, strengthen the crisis management mechanism of the South China Sea, and safeguard our national interests.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2016,Vol 30,No. 02
【Abstract】 China and U.S. recent military moves in the South China Sea reflect a growing momentum of strategic competition between the two countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The new pattern of Sino-U.S. relations at the moment of historical transition shows that interactions between the two sides move in a parallel way along the paths of competition as major strategic rivals and of cooperation as major stakeholders. This is a historically unprecedented type of major power relationship. So it is critical for policymakers in both Washington and Beijing to adequately comprehend the complexities of Sino-U.S. relations in a new era and to handle important issues under great pressures in a well-balanced way. The two sides must face the realities because of the increasing prominence of “structural problems”between China and the United States,and at the same time do their best to prevent the very danger of letting Sino-U.S. relation drift into the “Thucydides Trap”due to over focusing on their “structural problems.” For developing Sino-U.S. relationship through striving to overcome “structural problems ” and adhering to the principle of “seeking common ground while putting aside differences”under the new historical conditions,to seek a new type of major power relationship in an open-minded way and to address issues of the Asia-Pacific order at the same time might be considered as a conducive policy objective.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2016,Vol 30,No. 05
【Abstract】 The economic cyber espionage disputes between China and the U.S. rise from the deep integration of the development of cyberspace and the economic and social operation, the structural contradiction between China and the U.S. in cyber strategy and the competition in the security and development interests of the two countries. However, along with the better understanding of cybersecurity and continuing collision of bilateral cyber policies, the two governments have come to share the willingness to control differences, and reached the consensus on the commitment of no engagement in and no support for economic cyber espionage activities. In the future, whether China and the U.S. can effectively control their differences in this issue and avoid the consequent conflicts will be determined by the two major cyber countries’ capabilities to mutually shape their notions of cyber strategy, compromise the national interests in cyberspace, and promote the practical cooperation in cybersecurity.
?Comprehensive economic power comparison between China and the United States in the phase of China’s new normal : on the basis of GDP ①
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2016,Vol 30,No. 05
【Abstract】 By seeing China’s high rate of GDP growth in decades, the decreasing percentage point gap with the US in terms of GDP and the emergence of China as the second largest economy, it seems that China is developing with a large scale of its economy. However, by comparing with the data in China’s early days of reform and opening up, the GDP gap today between China and the US has become wider rather than narrower. One of factors that affect the GDP gap is that GDP as a comprehensive statistical index cannot fully demonstrate the economic achievements with changes in demographic structure and in patterns of production and consumption. It means that GDP-based economic comparison between China and the United States undervalues China’s economic progress. Under the situation of China’s economic new normal, the lower GDP growth rate in the course of restructuring China’s economy does not mean a lower growth speed of its comprehensive economic strength. If China wants to change its status in Sino-US economic strength contrast, it should endeavor to lift its position in the industry chain of the international division of labor through structural adjustment rather than focusing on the ranking and catching up with the US in GDP.
Diversity and coexistence: creation of the view of global governance in Sino-U.S. climate cooperation
World Economics and Politics,2016,No. 07
【Abstract】 Concept plays an important role in international relations, especially in relations among powers for it dictates its external strategy. Current Sino-U.S. relations are beyond bilateral fields with sufficient global implications, which means diversity and coexistence in the view of global governance may be formed in the bilateral relation, including climate change. China and the U.S. face different national interests in reality, but exist in a Tianxia system; thus, the two states must learn to exercise self-restraint and communicate with each other to coexist. According to the fifth report of IPCC, the threats and speed of climate change are deteriorating. In that case, the main greenhouse gases emitters should take responsibilities without waiting outcomes of global emission cutting convention. There is no doubt that China and the U.S. as the two largest greenhouse gases emitters should set an example for international community. The two states have made a series of achievements in climate cooperation since 2013, although still keeping lots of disputes. As a result, the global governance of climate change not only benefits from the positive progresses in Sino-U. S. climate cooperation and good interaction between bilateral cooperation and global governance with leadership filling up, efficiency raising and model creating in governance, but also reflects the creation of diversity and coexistence in the view of global governance by China and the United States.
Uncertainty, risk management and trust decision-making: a study based on Sino-U.S. strategic relations
World Economics and Politics,2016,No. 12
【Abstract】 Trust is a conundrum in the research on international relations. International trust building can be understood as an issue of trust decision-making under the condition of international politics. To manage the uncertainty and its risk, which is the core in trust decision-making, is crucial for understanding relevant behaviors. After reviewing recent studies on trust, this paper proposed a synthetic perspective on trust decision-making, in which the rational choice path and social psychological path were synthesized by the guidance of analytic eclecticism. Conditioned by international anarchy, states, in order to effectively manage risk, have to clarify the “trust threshold,” which consists of trust demands, trust guarantee and trust adjustment. Trust threshold is essentially an issue of assessment based on rationality. However, besides practical strategic interests as the basis, the objects that states assess also include the trustworthiness defined by irrational factors, such as social interactions, ideologies and cultural traditions. The proceedings of Sino-U.S. strategic interactions typically elaborates the complicated risk combinations posed by the above-mentioned elements and their challenges towards trust decision-making in the specific situation consisted of different international structures and contrast relations of national strength. Based on the past experiences, the writer put forward the trust building path taking the strengthening of Sino-U.S. trust demands as the focus in the face of the increasing Sino-U.S. strategic distrust.
The power game between China and the U.S. and the evolution of new type of major-country relationship from the perspectives of public products and relationship specific investment
World Economics and Politics,2016,No. 11
【Abstract】 A reassurance structure, in which the hegemon provides public goods to other countries, and at the same time the other countries make relationship-specific investment in the hegemon, could keep the international community in peace and balance. However, as some of the other countries rise and become more and more powerful, the hegemon could not provide enough public goods on the one hand, the rising power would not continue to make costly relationship-specific investment in the old power structure on the other hand. The stable reassurance structure would become unbalanced. This is the political and economic logic for explaining the gradually unbalanced Sino-U.S. relations. There are two prospects of the Sino-U.S. relations. Firstly, the world is broken into two parts and China and the U.S. will go to confrontation, even to war. Secondly, China and the U. S. make relationship-specific investment in each other and provide public goods to the world together, which will make the world more peaceful, safe and prosperous.
World Economics and Politics,2016,No. 10
【Abstract】 China-US relations are parts of the most important relations in the world, but main international relations theories cannot explain them very well. The relations are not rivalry relations, as most realists would claim; nor are they cooperative partnerships as most liberal scholars would have us believe. Constructivists’ emphasis on shared ideas and international norms does not explain the complexity and changes in China-US relations. This paper seeks to explain these features with the framework of processual constructivism. Based on the key concepts of processual constructivism and three case studies in China-US relations, this paper offers a new explanation of why there are so much complexity and changes in China-US relations. The findings of this paper will contribute to a more effective Chinese school of international relations and also have policy implications for decision makers in both China and the United States.
Maturity mismatch of investment and financing and its institutional explanation: evidence from comparison between Chinese and U.S. financial markets
China Industrial Economics,2016,No. 07
【Abstract】 The matching of assets maturity and financing maturity is a basic principle of corporate finance theory. In the past 20 years, China's economic growth mainly depends on large-scale investment, while the development of the financial system relatively lags behind. This paper attempts to study how firms obtain funds for long-term investment under the existing financial system which promotes China's sustained and rapid economic growth. Based on the comparison between China and the U.S., this paper finds that the rate of China's long-term investment is higher than that of the U.S. But the long-term financing provided by China's financial market is less and with shorter maturity, and most of it flows to the fields with long assets maturity, which leads to the severe maturity mismatch of supporting long-term investments with short-term financing on the macro level in China. Using a sample consisting of Chinese and U.S. public companies during 1998–2013, this paper finds that maturity mismatch also exists in Chinese enterprises, especially the state owned enterprises. Furthermore, this paper examines the relationship between the financial system and the firms' maturity mismatch in China and finds that for Chinese enterprises, maturity mismatch is mitigated by their strong ability of long-term borrowing, and it is unaffected by the spreads of short-term and long-term capitals but consistent with the expected monetary policies, which is different from that in American enterprises. The findings suggest that the common maturity mismatch in in Chinese enterprises is driven by institutional deficiencies in China, such as the imperfect financial market structure, the unreasonable term structure of interests and the inconsistency in monetary policies. These institutional deficiencies have to be overcome to address the maturity mismatch for Chinese enterprises.
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies,2016,No. 03
【Abstract】 Power transition within the global trade system has generated competition within international trade institutions, and as the two states accounting for the largest share of global trade, the U.S. and China play a central role in this competition. After the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO) became engulfed in serious difficulties, institutional competition between the U.S. and China with respect to trade shifted to the negotiation of bilateral or regional FTAs. Both states have attempted to take on a leadership role in the development of the future global trade order by leading FTA negotiations, the key issues being securing trade partners and the setting of the terms of trade. While presently the global leader with respect to trade, the United States has continued to see the erosion of its privileged position in the global trade system. In response, the U.S. has gone on the offensive, actively initiating three new sets of institutions, and through negotiations around the so-called “3Ts” (TPP, TTIP and TiSA), seeks to mold a new set of trade rules that can secure its interests into the future. As a big trading nation, China is a beneficiary of the existing trade system, while it also seeks to establish its own network of FTAs in response to tremendous institutional pressure from the United States. If U.S.-China competition over FTAs can ensure institutional liberalism and inclusiveness, this will assist in the enhancement of global trade institutions, bringing a new round of consolidation of international trade mechanisms. If on the other hand this institutional competition results in trade mechanisms which are closed and exclusive, this will result in serious frictions with respect to trade, and possibly even the splitting of the global trade system.
Effects of US-China trade on US employment in the context of global value chain division of labor: a structural decomposition analysis based on WIOT
Journal of International Trade,2016,No. 10
【Abstract】 In this paper, we used the method of Structural Decomposition Analysis which is based on the world input-output table (WIOT) framework to decompose the employment decline in the US during 2000–2003 and 2007–2011. The result shows that the job losses over these two periods are primarily caused by labor productivity changes, while imports from China, including intermediate and final imports, only account for 3.11% in 2000–2003 and 3.58% in 2007–2011 of the job losses in the US. In terms of marginal effects of imports or exports on employment, we found that the negative impact was caused by imports of intermediate products rather than that of final goods, but over these two periods, the marginal effects of US–-China trade on US employment were weakening, and the effects of final imports weakened the most. Comparing those two periods, we found the effects of US-China trade on US employment have shifted from manufacturing towards services sectors, and the negative impact has switched from final imports to intermediate imports. The “renting of machine and equipment and business services” sector saw the greatest overall job gains as well as losses.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2016,Vol 30,No. 05
【Abstract】 China-US relations have turned from the relationship between a major power and a superpower to the relationship of a rising power and an established power. Accordingly, the issue of international order has become the crucial area in the games between the two countries. The core of the China-US contention on international order falls on the issue of leadership, and the essence of leadership contention is the contention of ideologies. Currently, the two countries are in the contention for two orders: the existing US-led international order and the domestic order led by the Communist Party of China. Being an important structural contradiction in China-US relations, the contention of ideologies has great impact on the direction of China-US strategic relations. Both China and the US need to adopt cooperativism to guide the development of bilateral relations, to properly manage and control the differences in international order and ideologies, and to ensure non-conflict and non-confrontation in the relations.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2016,Vol 30,No. 05
【Abstract】 The U.S. Asia-Pacific rebalance strategy has imposed great strategic pressure upon China. The Belt and Road Initiative is not only a grand initiative for regional development and global order, but a strategic toolbox for China to play with the U.S. a tri-dimensional game involving geopolitics, geo-economics and soft power on the Eurasian continent. First, this Initiative reflects China’s guideline of “stabilizing China’s northwestern frontiers, managing its southeastern ones.” It is a geopolitical strategic leverage for China to enhance its land power against the U.S. pressure from the sea. Second, this Initiative helps China cope with the geo-economic impact of U.S. TPP arrangement by establishing bilateral and multilateral free trade framework, and advocating Euro-Asian economic integration. Third, this Initiative provides a platform for China to conduct soft power competition with the U.S. since it has both the intention and the capability to provide more economic and security public goods with its ever-increasing comprehensive power.
Northeast Asia Forum,2015,Vol 24,No. 03
【Abstract】 Ocean is mankind’s second living space of an increasing strategic position. As a traditional sea power, the United States fully recognized its hegemony is based upon ocean control, and has strengthened the control of oceans after entering the post-Cold War era. China, as an emerging power, recognized the importance of sea power, and has begun to vigorously develop the sea power. Ocean is the only geographical media between China and the United States, and maritime affairs have become an important agenda of bilateral relations. In the field of sea power, the two countries have both contradictions and cooperation. Because the Pacific Ocean becomes an axial area in the world oceanic system, and China and the US become the two major countries in the world’s ocean strategic pattern, such cooperation has a very important strategic significance. The Sino-US sea power cooperation mainly includes the fields of technology, economy, security and others, and because of objective and subjective factors, it has a deepening trend to possibly become the driving force to promote the steady development of bilateral relations.
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies,2015,No. 02
【Abstract】 Maritime competition represents a mainstream geo-strategic trend in modern major power relations. China and the U.S. similarly face the prospect of maritime competition in their relations, which is likely to become a touchstone for their bilateral security relations and the key influencing the construction of a new type of major power relations between them. On a macro level, maritime competition between China and the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region has both strategic and geo-political reasons, and relates also to the development of Chinese naval power and the U.S. understanding of and response to this development. Strategic conflict, geo-political conflict and unanticipated crises are the key factors causing China-U.S. maritime conflicts in Asia-Pacific. Nevertheless, shared interests, conflict prevention and crisis management measures remain as potential tools to ensure peace. While the outcome of China-U.S. maritime competition in the Asia-Pacific remains uncertain, the chances of large scale conflict remain low, while it is difficult to rule out the possibility of a crisis prompting conflict. As such, conflict prevention measures and crisis management mechanisms are critical. As China develops its maritime power, it must pay close attention to its strategic interaction with the U.S., while also strategically working to apply growing maritime capacity towards the goal of promoting peace. China should be proactive as it develops its maritime capacity, identify shared interests and avoid conflict with great maritime powers.
Foreign Affairs Review,2015,Vol 32,No. 05
【Abstract】 The China-U.S. relation is entering a new stage. Due to the increased differences in strategies, uncertainties of China-U.S. relations are increasing as well. Based on summaries and analysis of differences of China-U.S. strategies in East Asia, this paper focuses on the analysis of backgrounds and reasons behind these differences, discusses the risks of China-U.S. conflicts, and proposes a number of solutions. China and the United States have to grasp the risks of the China-U.S. relations and make adjustments at the strategic level in order to successfully get through the special transition period of China-U.S. relations, eliminate strategic risks, and maintain strategic stability.
Journal of International Trade,2015,No. 11
【Abstract】 By processing 2002–2012 export data of China and the United States from Chelem database, this paper estimates the added value of products and indexes of competition and complementarity of the two countries. The results reveal that in spite of faster total export growth, China's export shows a growth propensity towards middle and low value added products, and the export growth of the US, though relatively slower, is obviously biased towards high value added products. The export relationship between China and the US in the global market is still more complementary than competitive. The article further analyzes the export performances of China and the US in the EU market. The analysis demonstrates a contrast of competitiveness of the two countries and finds that the growth of Chinese export to the EU is rocketing but deviating from the import demand structure of the EU, which may render the export growth of China to the EU vulnerable in the future.
Improving the negative list administrative system in Pilot Free Trade Zone: experience from the China–US BIT negotiation
Journal of International Trade,2015,No. 11
【Abstract】 The pilot free trade zone establishes a "negative list" administrative model, aiming to provide pre-establishment national treatment and a negative list for China-US BIT negotiation on a trial basis. There are still several differences between Pilot Free Trade Zone negative list and China- US BIT negotiation negative list and its model text. This paper suggests that the modification of Pilot Free Trade Zone negative list should focus on reducing foreign investment restrictions, expanding the framework of the negative list, improving the elements of the negative list and enhancing the transparency of adoption of negative list.
Foreign Affairs Review,2015,Vol 32,No. 06
【Abstract】 Even though construction of new type of great power relations acquires new impetus after President Xi Jinping visits America, there are still some theoretical and experiential issues in need of solutions. China and America entertain different perceptions of new type of great power relations due to different opinions over power. As far as Western countries are concerned, a big country is more often referred to as a “great power.” Different theories of international relations uphold different perceptions of great power. In consequence, for a long time, China is in fact a great power without power, and the construction of new type of great power relations China has proposed also begins with the stance of a “major power.” However, America, apparently, believes that China intends to be a “great power,” which will lead to “Thucydides’s trap.” At present, economic aggregate of China is drawing near that of America, but it still needs a long time to catch up with that of America. At the same time, China is accelerating construction of military capability, enabling it to match economic aggregate. However, it is indispensable for China to furnish “great power” with new connotations, to implement great power strategy so as to improve the per capita income of China and global common development, and to build a new international order of common development.
The Chinese Journal of American Studies,2015,Vol 29,No. 03
【Abstract】 The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has aroused wide concern in the world. It marks China’s role shifting from rule taker to rule maker in global economic order. It is also deemed to be a diplomatic success for China and a sign of a decline of U.S. hegemony, as some American allies decided to join the AIIB despite strong opposition from Washington. For the huge infrastructural market in Asia, it is argued that the AIIB is conducive to the provision of international public goods and constitutes a beneficial supplementary force to the international economic system, due to its functions, operation mechanism and benign interaction with other international financial institutions. Undeniably, the establishment of the AIIB will reshape the regional order, but the development of the AIIB could hardly become a vital challenge to U.S. hegemony in this region. In fact, its operation in practice will encounter a host of hurdles and its project implementation will face great risks. demands of AIIB, but also makes no contribution to advance the building of the new relationship between the two powers. As a matter of fact, for the governance of the existing international economic system, the new competition brought by AIIB is not necessarily negative, which, to the contrary, may be helpful to the self-healing of this system, while the cooperation between them will contribute to the provision of international public goods. In this sense, AIIB is a useful supplement to the existing international economic system.
Economic Research Journal,2015,Vol 50,No. 04
【Abstract】 What effects did a weakening US dollar have on Sino-US bilateral trade during 2002–2012? The answers are figured out through statistical comparison and GMM estimation based on the Sino-US commodity trade model with perfect substitutes and that with imperfect substitutes. The findings are as follows. Firstly, US export of homogeneous goods to China accounts for a large share, and direct use of the model with imperfect substitutes would result in estimation bias with respect to changes in aggregate US export of homogeneous goods and differentiated goods as a response to exchange rate volatility. Using Rauch’s classification method, this study collects data of the Sino-US trade in homogeneous goods and differentiated goods at the Four-digit (in this study the Four-digit level refers to the one without a five-digit level below it) and five-digit level of the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC), which is the most disaggregated level and could help reduce the estimation bias with respect to changes in aggregate commodity trade as a response to exchange rate volatility to the utmost extent. Secondly, the mathematical models confirm that the sensitivity of real US export of differentiated goods toward China to the exchange rate in the case of imperfect substitutes is different from that of US export of homogeneous goods toward China to the exchange rate in the case of perfect substitutes, which also applies to the real US import from China. Thirdly, a weakening US dollar can significantly improve the US balance of trade with China in terms of homogeneous goods traded on exchanges, cause uncertain changes in the US balance of trade with China in terms of homogeneous goods with reference prices, and lead to significant deterioration of US balance of trade with China in terms of differentiated goods, thus resulting in the deterioration of US balance of trade with China in terms of commodity trade. The real exchange rate rise is against the US export of homogeneous goods, differentiated goods and aggregate goods (i.e. the full sample) to China as well as the US import of differentiated goods and aggregate goods from China, but cannot hinder the increase of US import of homogeneous goods from China. Therefore, the role of a weakening US dollar in improving US-China trade imbalance shall not be exaggerated, and reducing bilateral real exchange rate volatility is more favorable for promoting US-China commodity trade.
Journal of Latin American Studies,2015,Vol 37,No. 02
【Abstract】 Comparatively, public governance systems in most Central American countries are suffering from remarkable deficiencies that are regarded as a result of their historical experiences, including intense political conflicts since independence,rigid social structures inherited from colonial times and massive pressure from international circumstances. Democratization in the 1980 s facilitated regional countries to gain procedural legitimacy for their governance systems. Deficiencies in the governance system heavily restricted their governance capability, resulting in the deterioration of public security featured by extremely high homicide rates. Regional countries are pressed to increase the substantive legitimacy of their governance systems to enhance governance capacity and promote social justice, contributing to combating crime and crime organizations.
World Economics and Politics,2015,No. 05
【Abstract】 Traditional power transition theory claims that power parity generates conflicts between the hegemonic power and a rising power. Based on this problematic assertion, many believe that the Sino-U.S. relations are now ripe for rivalry. While power shifting can incur many difficulties, the hegemonic power and a rising power may find it necessary to work together in facing and solving public problems. This constitutes a unique feature that separates the Sino-U.S. relations from precedent dyads of the hegemon and a rising power. The author contends that as competitive strategy dominated in pre-1945 world, coupled with little room for international coordination, the tragedy of the hegemony and a rising power was much more likely than otherwise would be. As it has evolved to a less competitive world since 1945, players began to learn and adopt a mixed strategy of hedging. As a result, although an optimal solution is difficult to achieve, the worst scenario can be avoided. An empirical investigation goes to the early Anglo-American relations concerning the continental America, from which both the U.S. and China can learn a lesson to live with current trends of power shifting. Another empirical study follows to refute the irresponsible voices augmenting the Sino-U.S. disagreement and to find some ways to manage the Sino-U.S. power shifting situation.
【Abstract】 The US had for a long time been selling a great deal of steel, oil and other strategic materials to Japan, which increased Japan’s ability to carry out aggression against China. In July of 1939, Chiang Kai-shek sent a telegram to Roosevelt suggesting the US to take measures to weaken Japan’s fighting capacity and economic power. Later in the same month, the US government announced the abolishment of the US-Japan Commercial Treaty and imposed economic sanctions against Japan. In April of 1941, in an attempt to ease the pressure of American sanctions through negotiations, Japan proposed the US-Japan Memorandum of Understanding. In order to keep the US from prematurely falling into the unfavorable situation of fighting simultaneously in the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, Roosevelt proposed a program of concessions and compromises, seeking to relax the economic blockade on Japan for a certain period of time. Chiang Kai-shek rigorously opposed the change in America’s policy toward Japan. He angrily condemned the US government on the basis of “international morality and justice” and “human morality,” while Hu Shih and Soong Tse-ven also actively negotiated with the Americans on this issue. Ultimately, the US policy toward Japan returned to a comprehensively tough policy after a period of limited compromise, and negotiations between the US and Japan broke down. Japan accused the US of simply becoming Chiang Kai-shek’s mouthpiece, and in early December it suddenly carried out the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, at which point the Pacific War broke out.
World Economics and Politics,2015,No. 09
【Abstract】 With the historical process of global power transition, Sino-US strategic mutual trust has become a hot topic with lots of academic arguments. Between trust and distrust, Sino-US strategic trust makes a dynamic process, and the decline of strategic mutual trust will lead to a heavy burden on bilateral relations. What are the constraints about maintaining and repairing bilateral trust when Sino-US strategic trust breaks down? With reviewing the literatures, this paper puts forward the concept of “relational trust,” from the dimensions of regulative, normative and relational meaning. Essentially, bilateral trust as a bundle of relations roots in constantly beneficial reciprocity practice, and so the relational contract is endogenous, processed, and is not dependent on external factors. Once the two sides are locked in a lasting beneficial relationship, in order to maintain long-term interests, China and the United States always try to maintain the overall situation of bilateral relations rather than pursuing the short-term interests in the face of the crisis, which will leave room for each other to address hard problems. In summary, relational contract is the core rule of trust maintenance, which will be externalized as formal institutional agreements and internalized as the implicit psychological contracts. Those three kinds of trust contracts can integrate with each other, and undoubtedly make important bases for Sino-US new type of major power relations.
International Economic Review,2015,No. 03
【Abstract】 The China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) is one that focuses on issues of strategic, long-term and overall significance. Since 2009, six rounds of talks have been successfully held, which have had deep bearing on development of China-U.S. relations and world economy. However, the two countries still need to improve in implementations of agreements reached during the dialogues. Compared with the U.S., China has made considerable concessions and largely fulfilled its commitments. The United States has made fewer commitments and not all of them have been fulfilled. China should fully take the advantage of the political polarization of the U.S. and favorable changes in the current world economic situation to become more efficient in influencing the agenda of the dialogue and public opinion so as to make the dialogue better serve its interest.
Monetary cooperation or monetary war — interests and cooperation prospects of China and the US in the international monetary system reform
International Economic Review,2015,No. 06
【Abstract】 The international monetary landscape is set to undergo changes in the long term. The US dollar will continue to dominate the international monetary system in the foreseeable future while the renminbi has been on the rise in terms of international influence. The international monetary system thus is becoming more pluralistic. China and the US currently are two major stakeholders of the international monetary system. While they are in different development stages, the two countries are in the same open economic system. Such a unique scenario means it is necessary and possible for the two countries to conduct monetary cooperation. In carrying out monetary cooperation, the two sides should give priority to promoting the establishment of a pluralistic international reserve currency system, improving the exchange rate adjustment mechanism, jointly building a global currency swap network, making efforts to establish a rule-based international monetary order that caters to both regional and global situation, and promoting a new-type Sino-US monetary relationship through deepening real economy cooperation.
Factor proportion, technology disparity and value added in export: an empirical study on the export of Sino-US bilateral trade
Finance & Trade Economics,2015,No. 06
【Abstract】 With the deepening of the global value chain, the value added trade has become a hot topic in the field of international trade. This paper constructs a theoretical model for the impact of factor proportion and technology disparity on value added in export, and uses the data of Sino-US bilateral trade to conduct an empirical test. The study finds that factor intensity, factor abundance and relative productivity of the high-skilled labor and capital have significant effects on the added value of China’s export; the factor proportion of high-skilled labor has a significant impact on the value added in export, but the impact of capital is not significant. The effect of factor proportion on the value added of different industries is also significantly different. Therefore, China needs to promote its growth of the export value added through optimizing export structure, increasing the input proportion of high-skilled labor, adjusting the capital flow, and narrowing the gap of technology.
Study of the dispute over RMB exchange rate between China and the US from the perspective of the duality of exchange r ate: is China a currency manipulator?
Finance & Trade Economics,2015,No. 08
【Abstract】 The RMB exchange rate issue has been one of the most controversial topics between China and the US. Proceeding from the duality of exchange rates and base on the dual exchange rate determination theory, the authors conduct an empirical analysis on the equilibrium level of and the Chinese government’s interventions in the RMB exchange rate by using the two-tier stochastic frontier model. Results show that government interventions are not the main factor in leading to the deviation of RMB exchange rate from the equilibrium level; under the government intervention, the real RMB exchange rate are not underestimated to a certain extent, but on the contrary are overestimated, which is especially obvious during the international financial crisis. Therefore, although the Chinese government intervened in the RMB exchange rate to a certain degree, China cannot be designated as a currency manipulator.
The Journal of International Studies,2015,Vol 36,No. 03
【Abstract】 Taiwan Relations Act passed by the US in 1979 triggered diplomatic disputes between China and the US, undermined the strategic foundation of “uniting the US while against the Soviet Union” and caused argument on China’s US policy. Some ambassadors and leaders questioned the strategy of “uniting the US while against the Soviet Union” at the 5th Conference of Chinese Diplomatic Envoys Stationed Abroad. In order to maintain this strategy, Deng Xiaoping cooperated closely with the US as the Chinese side recognized the Carter government’s administrative commitment of putting aside disputes, and the US side made tremendous effort to promote its China policy to mend the bilateral ties. After China-US relations recovered rapid development, on the CPC (Communist Party of China) Politburo meeting held on August 29th, 1979, Deng Xiaoping balanced the pros and cons of China’s US policy and Soviet Union policy, persuaded the decision-makers to suspend detente with the Soviet Union, and stabilized China-US relations. At the early stages of reform and opening up, the development of China-US and China-Soviet relations enjoyed considerable equality, so China’s US policy was the result of the combined effect of China’s modernization approach, security strategy and artful diplomatic skills.
Northeast Asia Forum,2015,Vol 24,No. 01
【Abstract】 China, the U.S. and India have developed different plans in constructing the new Silk Road. The U.S. mainly aims to protect its achievements in the Afghanistan war and to serve its strategy in Central Asia and South Asia so as to maintain its world hegemony; and China and India take the new Silk Road as a way for trade expansion, energy supply and cultural communication. Among the three countries’ plans of new Silk Road, the Indian one is more similar to that of the U.S. and their directions are also more consistent; and the Chinese one is more inclusive and sustainable. If the three countries can cooperate well with each other in the new Silk Road construction, Asian integration will be motivated. On the contrary, vicious competition will cause geopolitical turbulence in Asia. China should try to avoid geopolitical risks and give priority to the cross-border transportation construction with neighboring countries that have established good political relations with China, constantly promoting the building of the new Silk Road.
Whether divergences exist between Chinese rules and American ones governing the Air Defense Identification Zone
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies,2014,No. 02
【Abstract】 Exerting significant influence on other countries, the rules of the American Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) stand as a cornerstone for the international common practice in this field to some extent. No major divergence has been found in the comparison of China’s ADIZ rules with that of America and China’s ADIZ rules conform to the international common practice. Moreover, the difference in application of the American ADIZ rules between civilian and military aircraft is “deliberately blurred,” which means that the American rules are not applied to military aircraft, mainly for its military aircraft’s arbitrary operation in other countries’ ADIZs and exclusive economic zones based on the traditional overflight freedom above high seas. Currently, there is no public international law restricting ADIZ rules of different countries. Particularly, there is no clear international convention to protect coastal states’ security interests from military aircraft. Therefore, China and the US should make the best of the existing marine military security negotiation mechanisms in response to ADIZ-related issues for timely negotiations to enhance cooperation in managing and controlling crises.
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies,2014,No. 02
【Abstract】 The US adjustment in its South China Sea policy reflects changes in its overall strategic needs and its ultimate target of maintaining a strategic equilibrium and regional stability. The Obama administration’s high profile intervention in the South China Sea disputes is related to its strategy of returning to Southeast Asia and its strategic rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific, as well as its overall plan of coping with China’s rise. In coping with the bilateral relations, in order to step over the Thucydides trap, China and the US should take into account both direct interaction and indirect interaction, manage both core interests and common interests, and safeguard security as well as rights and interests. They should also strike a balance between managing great power relations and handling peripheral relations. If both sides commit themselves to a new type of future-oriented great power relations, the South China Sea issue will not develop into an insoluble problem as is worried by the international community.
The establishment of Sino-US diplomatic relations and its influence on the two countries’ interaction model on the Korean Peninsula issue
Contemporary Korea,2014,No. 03
【Abstract】 Based on the theory of interaction, this paper explores the Sino-US interaction process on the Korean Peninsula issue. Their interaction model on the Korean Peninsula issue which was conflictual due to the Korea War did not change until the establishment of the two countries’ diplomatic relations. The establishment of diplomatic relations does not change the two countries’ interaction essence on the Korean Peninsula issue immediately, but it is a turning point for the transformation of their interaction model. These factors, such as the cognitive change of the two countries’ leaders, the increase of their political interaction, and the change of the two countries’ foreign policy towards the Korean Peninsula, make a transformation of Sino-US interaction model on the Korean Peninsula issue from “conflictive interaction” to “competitive interaction.”
Russian,East European & Central Asian Studies,2014,No. 04
【Abstract】 The current Sino-Russian relations is in the best period in history, and it became a new model of great-power relations. At present the United States is the main external factor affecting die Sino-Russian relations. Present Sino-American-Russian relationship is different from one during the Cold War,although there are some structural contradictions and interest conflicts between them.In the field of politics and security, the level of the Sino-Russian relations is much higher than one of China-USA relations; in the aspect of economy and society, the development level of China-USA relations greatly exceed the one of Sino-Russian relations.The driving force to promote the development of Sino-Russia relations is mainly the government while the subject to promote the development of China-US relations is nongovernmental and market forces.The United States is doomed to failure if it attempts to deal with the two big countries at the same time. In this complicated and multipolar era, "an aggressive and balancing diplomacy" should be a wise choice for China.
Northeast Asia Forum,2014,Vol 23,No. 01
【Abstract】 U.S. dollar standard, being the foundation of the Sino-U.S. dual loop of trade and capital, is a strong proof of the asymmetric interdependence between the U.S., a “trading state,” and China, a “financial state.” U.S. dollar standard system has significant impact on Sino-U.S. trade and financial imbalance, manifesting the asymmetric Sino-U.S. “balance of finance terror.” After the global financial crisis, U.S. dollar standard has been reinforced instead of being weakened and will still persist. China should reduce its dependence on U.S. dollar standard under the current policy framework. Therefore, the change of development strategy and the process of financial transformation should be accelerated without delay.
Foreign Affairs Review,2014,Vol 31,No. 01
【Abstract】 After over 40 years’ development, the U.S.-China relationship is now facing a new phase. The challenge confronting both sides is that whether they can establish a long-lasting, stable strategic relation, gradually reduce strategic suspicion and accumulate mutual trust during their cooperation. Clarifying the sources and developments of the strategic stability between the U.S. and China, this paper analyzes the challenges faced and the ways to improve such stability.
Factors in Japan’s lifting the ban on the right to collective self-defense: China-US-Japan interaction
Japanese Studies,2014,No. 06
【Abstract】 Japan’s lifting the ban on the right to collective self-defense marks a significant adjustment of Japan’s defense policy. The article made an analysis of the motivation from the perspective of China-US-Japan interaction. Japanese hawkish politicians attempt to revise the constitution and escape from post-war regime with the pretext of proactive pacifism. The pursuit of Japan’s “normalization” serves as the internal motivation for Abe to lift the ban on the right to collective self-defense. Catering for the transformation of the US strategy and military action in the Asia-Pacific region, and making Japan a country who can exercise military power and exert immense political leverage by aiding the US in military terms, serve as the external factors. China’s rise has contributed to the great change of political and economic pattern in the Asia-Pacific region, which was marked by the China-US-Japan game. The US and Japan consider China as their common enemy and try to contain China’s development, which serves as the structural cause of Abe’s lifting the ban on the collective self-defense right. “The China-US-Japan interaction” reflects the fact of the triangle interaction in the region, as well as Japan’s desire for self-defense.