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Agricultural products

Real-time early warning system against bubble risk in agricultural futures market

LI Jian;LYU Jie;LI Chongguang

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 03

【Abstract】 In recent years, China’s agricultural futures market has witnessed severe price volatility and bubble risk, which has become a potential threat to the development of agricultural market in China. This paper proposed a real-time bubble risk detecting model and analyzed its effectiveness in building the bubble risk real-time early warning system for the agricultural futures market. Based on a series of simulations, this research found that the model has four main merits for real-time bubble detection, namely, general applicability, immediacy, the robustness, and convenience. We further proposed alarming criteria, warning response mechanism, and a five-step early warning management procedure. Finally, this research applied the early warning system to the cotton futures market for validation and verification.

What is the anchor of China’s agricultural price stabilization?

QUAN Shiwen;MAO Xuefeng;ZENG Yinchu

Chinese Rural Economy,2019,No. 05

【Abstract】 This article uses a co-integration test and an error correction model to analyze the long-term price equilibrium and price transmission among China’s seven main agricultural products, namely maize, rice, wheat, soybean, cotton, sugar and pork. Taking into account the sensitivity of the single regression results to the sample period, this study uses a rolling window technique to select a wide range of sub-samples in the full sample period, repeats the co-integration test and uses the error correction model in each sub-sample for test. The results show that, in the long run, maize, cotton and sugar are in the basic position of price transmission chain, wheat and soybean are in the intermediate link, and rice and pork are in the terminal link. Among them, the number of times passing co-integration tests between the maize price and other product prices is the largest, and maize price is most frequently identified as weakly exogenous in the co-integration system. The study identifies maize as the anchor product in the price stability of China’s agricultural products, since the planting area of maize is wide, the production of maize is high, the depth and breadth of the maize industrial chain are much greater than those of other agricultural products, and maize price is closely linked with crude oil price. The government should attach more importance to the maize market, and make full use of the market position of maize as anchor product when formulating price intervention policies for agricultural products.

Study on the dynamic transmission effect of international agricultural prices on domestic agricultural products prices

ZHENG Yan;DING Cunzhen

Journal of International Trade,2019,No. 08

【Abstract】 This paper analyzed the dynamic transmission effect of international agricultural prices on domestic agricultural products price through TVP-VAR model and DCC-GARCH model which were based on the monthly data of international and domestic agricultural products price from January 2001 to June 2017 from multiple perspectives. The results show that the transmission effect of the price of international agricultural products on the price of domestic agricultural products is different between different varieties of agricultural products and has obvious time variability. The implementation of the price policy of agricultural products reduces the transmission effect of international agricultural prices on domestic agricultural products prices, and the effects of different agricultural policies are different. The effect of the price of international agricultural products on the price of domestic agricultural products is different in different trade intensity. The larger the scale of agricultural trade is, the stronger the transfer effect of international agricultural prices on domestic agricultural prices is. The transmission effect of international agricultural prices on domestic agricultural products is asymmetric. The price of domestic agricultural products is more sensitive to the rise of international agricultural prices. The higher the openness of agricultural products market is and the greater the volume of trade is, the higher the correlation between domestic and international agricultural products prices is. The implementation of agricultural policies can affect the correlation between domestic and international price fluctuations of some agricultural products.

Influence of trade facilitation on depth and breadth of China’s agricultural product export: in the context of the Silk Road Economic Belt

ZHU Jing;BI Ying

Journal of International Trade,2018,No. 04

【Abstract】 From the perspective of export depth and export breadth, this paper uses the panel data of Chinese agricultural products exporting to 48 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2008 to 2015, and based on an analysis of the status of China’s agricultural products exporting to these countries and the measurement of trade facilitation level of these countries, this paper employs the extended trade gravity model to analyze the influence of trade facilitation level of these countries on China’s agricultural products export depth and breadth. We found that China’s agricultural products export depth and breadth will increase by1.111% and 0.431% respectively for every 1% increase in the level of trade facilitation of these countries. These results imply that if the trade facilitation level of these countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt can be improved, it can not only increase the export value and market share of China’s agricultural products, but also improve the export structure and diversification of China’s agricultural products export.

Study on the fresh degree incentive mechanism of fresh agricultural product supply chain based on consumer utility

CAO Yu;LI Ye-mei;WAN Guangyu

Chinese Journal of Management Science,2018,Vol 26,No. 02

【Abstract】 With continuous improvement of consumers’ living standards, consumers’ demand for food safety has converted into the demand of both safety and high quality. Food fresh degree is widely arising consumers’ concern. Changes in consumers’ demand for fresh food makes a great many retailers and suppliers increasingly concerned about perishable goods and strengthen the management of fresh food supply chain. However, as a result of the attributes of perishable food itself and the lagging development of cold chain logistics technology, its management result is far from expectation. According to the data of CECRC, the loss rate of fruits and vegetables reaches 30% per year, which causes around CNY 1 billion per year. Based on the statement above, the improvement of whole fresh degree on fresh supply chain is chosen as research topic. The fresh degree advancement is of great significance to reduce waste, as well as improve the overall profitability of the supply chain and social welfare. The supply chain system composed of two suppliers and one retailer is mainly studied based on the consumer utility theory. The fresh degree incentive model of fresh agricultural products under single cycle is constructed. In the model, supplier is the leader. With the Stackelberg game method, manufactures’ optimal pricing and optimal freshness effort selection strategy under the equilibrium state are obtained. Results show that supplier, retailer profit and consumer price sensitivity coefficient are in reverse change. In the price competition market, the degree of preservation effort, profit and price substitution factor of the supplier show a reverse change. In the fresh degree competition market, the degree of preservation effort and profit, with the substitution rate of fresh degree change are in the same direction. Based on research conclusions, manufacturers and the government should cooperate to guide the consumer’s consumption concept jointly, reduce the moral hazard caused by information asymmetry as far as possible and avoid the phenomenon of Gresham.

The impact of initiators’ characteristics on crowdfunding performance of agricultural projects: an analysis based on the trust theory

DU Junjuan;LI Yaokuang

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 03

【Abstract】 This paper collected 1166 projects derived from China’s largest E-business platform of Taobao crowdfunding and investigated initiators’ characteristics that could affect the perceived trust of investors. Based on the trust theory, the study established a research model in two dimensions, namely, a trust source and a trust transfer mechanism. With a multivariate regression method, the paper conducts an empirical analysis on the impact of initiators’ characteristics on crowdfunding performance of agricultural projects. The results indicated that industrial consistency, top-seller certification, cash deposit, credit score, the favorable feedback rate and the rural per capita net income had significantly positive impacts on the funding performance. However, factors such as the type of Alipay certification and the number of crowdfunding platforms had no significant impact on the funding performance. The study concludes by presenting implications for practice from the perspectives of initiators, crowdfunding platforms and the government.

Impact of exceptional arrangement of rules of origin on agri-product imports in China’s FTAs

LYU Jianxing;ZENG Yinchu

Journal of International Trade,2018,No. 11

【Abstract】 The rules of origin (RoO) are the nationalities of products in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), which are invisible protection measures on trade. In this paper, based on the product-level data of 2002–2015, we used Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator to analyze the impact of exceptional arrangement of RoO on agriproduct imports in China’s FTAs, followed by various robustness tests. The results show that both exceptional arrangement and normal arrangement of RoO have significant inhibitory effects on agri-product imports, where the inhibitory effect of exceptional arrangement is two times that of normal arrangement. These results reveal the protection effect of RoO on imports with compliance costs of 9.72% and 5.10% for exceptional arrangement and normal arrangement, respectively. In conclusion, using specific RoO to protect sensitive products could be as useful as tariffs, while RoO is easier to be achieved in trade negotiations. Thus we suggest paying more attention to RoO in China’s FTA strategy.

The influence of expected profits and adjustment to agricultural policies on the supply of agricultural products in China

WANG Chen;WANG Jimin

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 06

【Abstract】 This paper constructed a dynamic supply response model for nine agricultural products by introducing variables such as expected profits and agricultural policy, studied the factors affecting the sown area and the yield per unit area of crops, and made a comparative analysis on the differences in agricultural product supply responses before and after the adjustment to agricultural policies in 2004. The results showed that the expected profits had a significantly positive impact on the sown area of crops. After the adjustment to agricultural policies in 2004, the impact of expected profits and natural risks on the supply of agricultural products generally weakened, indicating that China’s protection of farmers’ interests and increased investment in the agricultural infrastructure had enhanced the resilience of agricultural production. In addition, the sown area lagging one period and the yield per unit area lagging one period have great impacts on the supply of agricultural products, and the supply of agricultural products was rigid. The proportion of irrigated area and technological progress had significantly positive impacts on the yield per unit area of crops, and natural risks had a significantly negative impact on the yield per unit area. This paper believes that the relationship between expected profits and the agricultural product supply should be fully utilized, and the supply-side structural reform of agriculture should be promoted to change the structural shortage of agricultural products by changing comparative profits and farmers’ expectations. In addition, strengthening construction of the rural infrastructure, investment in agricultural science and technology innovation, and construction of disaster prevention and disaster prevention facilities can play a positive role in the supply of agricultural products.

Effect of the positive list system on the quality of China’s agricultural exports: a micro-level data analysis

CHEN Rong;XU Helian

Journal of International Trade,2018,No. 05

【Abstract】 The effect of the positive list system on China’s agricultural products is a major issue for both policy makers and the academic circle. Based on data from China’s customs trade database from 2000 to 2013, this paper adopts the product-level regression method to estimate the quality of China’s agricultural products. It then analyzes the quality structure characteristics of China’s agricultural exports from the aspects of trade and ownership. Finally, it analyzes the effect of the positive list system on China’s agricultural exports based on a difference-in-differences model. The findings are as follows: (1) the quality of China’s agricultural exports rose from 2000 to 2013, with a significant U-shaped change from 2007 to 2012; (2) the conclusion that the quality of China’s agricultural exports improved is tenable for different means of trading and different forms of ownership; (3) the effect of the positive list system on China’s agricultural exports is significant both statistically and economically.

Supply-side structural optimization of the agricultural industry in China under the FTA strategy: a simulation analysis of agricultural products trade based on China’s 13 FTA agreements

Zhou Shudong;Lu Xiang;Zheng Jian;Xiao Xiao

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 04

【Abstract】 Based on the tariff reduction among 13 signed FTA agreements by the Chinese government, this paper conducts a simulation of the impacts of 13 FTA agreements on China’s agricultural production with a computable general equilibriummodel, exploring the superposition effect of the tariff preference scheme in multiple FTAs, and the optimal strategies of agricultural structure adjustment on the supply side. The results show that sectors of live animals, meat, dairy products, sugar, and edible oils could suffer from import shocks, while sectors of rice, vegetable and fruit, oil crops and other industries could have export potentials. The study provides an optimal solution to agricultural structural adjustment, by reducing production capacity of sectors such as live animals, meat, dairy products, sugar, edible oils and increasing production capacity of sectors such as vegetable and fruits in temperate zone, japonica rice and other products with export potentials. Through this structural adjustment, China can carry out the supply side reform in an active manner in case of import shocks.

Agricultural products brokers and trade of cash crops: a study on embeddedness of local market

CHEN Yiyuan

Chinese Rural Economy,2018,No. 12

【Abstract】 By a theoretical framework of embeddedness, this paper focused on the operation of local market for cash crops and explored how rural social relations were involved in local trade to interpret the formation of market order. By fieldwork in two cash crop-producing counties, we found that various obstructions prevented middlemen from trading directly with small producers. The technical barriers in marketing, a wide gap of trading volume between small producers and middlemen, and information asymmetry caused intentionally by middlemen could all result in failures of trade between middlemen and direct producers. As a result, the rural social resources of agricultural commodity brokers as middlemen agents could well help trade. The rural social networks of these brokers enabled them to find proper suppliers soon, whereas trust of fellow villagers allowed them to guarantee whenever necessary. Moreover, their renqing (favor) and mianzi (face) in the rural community could not only help to resolve conflicts between middlemen and small producers but also allow the former as outsiders of the village to avoid prejudice. As a matter of fact, the brokers’ rural social resources, functioning as lubricant, help them to trade with small producers at a low cost, solve the conflicts between the two parties within the social relations between brokers and their fellow villagers, and guarantee a good order of local market.

Impact of trade costs on the growth of agricultural trade in different regions of China

JIA Wei;GONG Tongyao;QIN Fu

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 04

【Abstract】 This paper constructs a CGE model of eight regions and two sectors, and uses the data of China’s regional input-output tables in 2002 and 2010 to study the impact of trade costs on the growth of agricultural trade in different regions of China. The results show: ① There are significant regional differences in agricultural trade costs in China, but the differences become tinier. ② Trade costs are show significant negative effects on the growth of agricultural trade in different regions of China, particularly in the Northwest, Southwest and Central China. ③ Trade costs mainly affect bilateral agricultural trade but slightly affect the third parties’ agricultural trade. ④ In the condition that all other factors keep unchanged, the decrease in trade costs contribute to the growth of China’s interregional and foreign agricultural trade which increase by 35.79%and 39.87%, respectively. ⑤ The decline in the costs of foreign agricultural trade is found to expand the agricultural trade deficit, while the decline in the costs of interregional agricultural trade appears to reduce the deficit.

Trade of agricultural products between China and the sixteen CEE countries: a study based on the panel data 2006–2015

ZHANG Xiaheng

Russian Central Asian & East European Market,2017,No. 03

【Abstract】 This paper is dedicated to the study of the intra-industry trade volume between China and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and China’s trade competitiveness of agricultural products by analyzing the current situation of Sino-CEE agricultural trade and categorizing the structure of agricultural products based on the panel data of agriculture trade between China and the Sixteen CEE countries over the period of 2006–2015. The result of this study reveals that China’s surplus persists but is gradually shrinking; that Sino-CEE agricultural trade has the potential for future growth considering the negligible proportion of China’s trade volume of agricultural products with CEE countries in the total volume of China’s agricultural trade; and that China and CEE countries are complementary trading partners in terms of agricultural products in addition to that China’s agricultural products are fairly competitive in the CEE market.

Risk assessment of agricultural futures markets: a new analysis framework based on price bubble model

LI Jian ;LI Chongguang

Chinese Rural Economy,2017,No. 05

【Abstract】 This paper introduced price bubble theory and its analysis method, suggested the assessment method and analysis framework of agricultural commodity futures market risk from the perspective of price bubble, set three risk assessment indexes including “bubble duration”, “bubble frequency” and “bubble intensity”, and conducted measurement and assessment of the historical risk levels of China’s agricultural commodity futures market during 2006-2014. According to the risk assessment results, this paper divided agricultural commodity futures products into high, middle and low levels in risk and summarized the risk features and control implications of the commodities at each risk level. The research results of this paper show that commodity function cannot completely reflect its risk attribute, so it is necessary to complete the risk regulating system of agricultural commodity futures market in the principle of “monitoring by level and preventing by priority.”

The operational efficiency measurement of agro-food supply chains: the single “farmer-supermarket direct purchase” vs. dual channel

PU Xujin;JIN Delong

Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,Vol 25,No. 01

【Abstract】 An agricultural cooperative is an association of farmers who voluntarily cooperate to pool their production for sales. In China, the agricultural cooperatives are increasingly encouraged to sell their fresh agricultural products to supermarkets, and supermarkets hold a significant market share in agricultural product distribution from farms to final consumers. However, some of agricultural cooperatives still prefer to sell a part (or all) of their production directly to end consumers. In practice, many farmers combine direct selling and marketing through cooperatives. They sell part of their production to the cooperatives and the rest is sold directly to consumers. The combination of direct selling with supermarkets gives rise to a particular market structure for the agricultural cooperatives. The purpose of this paper is to study whether it is necessary for the cooperatives to establish community outlet stores to sell fresh agricultural products to consumers directly. A model in which an agricultural cooperative is owned by many farmers who produce a homogeneous good is built. It is assumed that the supermarkets and the direct selling market are separated. The supermarkets are oligopolistic, but the price of fresh agro-food in the direct selling market is controlled by the government. The agricultural cooperative decides on the production quantity and how to share this production the supermarkets and the direct selling market. A Nash bargaining model is developed to analyze the game process between the cooperative and the supermarket. The equilibrium results are derived and the resulting profit sensitivity with respect to some factors is analyzed. Our analysis stresses three important results. First, it is find that the cooperative will benefit from the opening of the community outlet store; however, the profit of supermarket will decrease. Second, as the bargaining power of the cooperative decreases, the degree of improvement for the cooperative’s profit will become more significant. Finally, the operational efficiency of the whole supply chain can be improved significantly in the dual channel when the production capability of the cooperative is greater than a threshold. Simultaneously, a numerical simulation is proposed to prove the results. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it is an attempt to build a theoretical framework for a agricultural cooperative to decide on how to share production between the supermarkets and the direct selling market. Second, the results of this paper can provide implications for the government in China to develop more efficient agricultural supply chains.

The content of trade factors in Chinese agricultural products

GAO Xue ;LI Gucheng

Journal of International Trade,2016,No. 03

【Abstract】 The HOV model shows that trade among products is essentially a trade among factors. When a country participates in free trade, it becomes a net exporter of factors of which it has an abundance and a net importer of factors that are rare in the country. This article uses the factor content of trade approach to calculate the factor content, including land, labor, and capital of major Chinese agricultural products between 1992 and 2013 and organize these three factors into a single analytical framework. The article also studies China’s relative factor endowments based on Leamer improvement. The calculations indicate that the net total labor factor export is decreasing. The trade content of land factor is a net import, and the capital factor which is a net import is increasing. Meanwhile, the data shows that China has a comparative advantage in agricultural labor, but not in land or capital. Trade of agricultural products in different qualities have different influences on the production factors.

A study of the influence of trade facilitation on the export of Chinese agricultural products —an empirical analysis based on the countries along the Silk Road

TAN Jingrong;PAN Huaxi

Journal of International Trade,2016,No. 05

【Abstract】 In the backdrop of “the Belt and Road,” promoting trade facilitation is an important way of accelerating development of international trade among the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt; it also attracts national attention from all related countries. This article took the trade data between 2008 and 2013, calculated trade facilitation levels of 58 countries that belong to the Silk Road Economic Belt, and analyzed the influence that trade facilitation on Chinese agricultural products commerce as per the gravity model of international trade. According to the empirical analysis of the gravity model, trading partner’s GDP, population size, market opening extent, and economic organization are all significant elements for determining China’s export of agricultural products to the countries along the Silk Road.

Impact of internal trust within farmers’ cooperatives on controlling quality and safety of agricultural products*: a case study based on three dairy farmers’ cooperatives

ZHONG Zhen;MU Nana;QI Jieli

Chinese Rural Economy,2016,No. 01

【Abstract】 Through a case study of three dairy farmers’ cooperatives, the paper found that internal trust within farmers’ cooperatives had a positive impact on controlling quality and safety of agricultural products, where interpersonal trust influenced the control effect through promoting sharing resources between members and cooperatives, and institutional trust through regulating and restricting members’ behaviors. Although the two kinds of trust played a role in controlling quality and safety of agricultural products of farmers’ cooperatives, they differed from each other in terms of influencing degrees, and the impact of interpersonal trust might be no greater than that of institutional trust. The conclusions have important practical significance for propelling the construction and improvement of internal trust system within farmers’ cooperatives, and for raising the quality and safety level of agricultural products of cooperatives.

The characteristics of agricultural trade network and its effects on the global value chain division: a study based on social network analysis

MA Shuzhong;REN Wanwan;WU Guojie

Management World,2016,No. 03

【Abstract】 Against the background of an open economy, the connotation of international trade is constantly expanding, and trade relationship of agricultural products among countries is becoming increasingly intricate, so the observation on labor division status in the agricultural value chain in a country requires us to position it in the network of trade relations with other countries. On grounds of data concerning trade of agricultural products in 1996 to 2013, this paper starts by deploying social network analytical method to probe into holistic pattern of global trade of agricultural products and depicts characteristics featured by trade network of agricultural products in a country from three dimensions covering network centrality, network connection intensity and network heterogeneity. Analysis result indicates that evolution of global trade network of agricultural products is a progressive course and characteristics of trade network in a country shows skewed distribution. On this basis, this paper further conducts an empirical study to verify the impacts of the characteristics of trade network of agricultural products on its labor division status in the agricultural value chain. Research results indicate that network centrality, network association strength, and network heterogeneity display steady and evident facilitation on labor division status in the global agricultural chain in a country.

Export diversity and ubiquity of agricultural products and agricultural growth

YE Chusheng;ZOU Xin

Chinese Rural Economy,2016,No. 03

【Abstract】 The kinds of export of agricultural products (diversity) in different countries and the supplier of each agricultural product (ubiquity) are different. Few studies pointed out the importance of the export ubiquity of agricultural products on the export diversity. This paper used the data on 394 kinds of agricultural products in 164 countries from 1986 to 2012 to construct a simple theoretical model, which described how the export diversity of agricultural products affected agricultural growth through export ubiquity. Analytical results showed that the export diversity of agricultural products had a significant effect on agricultural growth. In countries with high export ubiquity, the export diversity of agricultural products had insignificant influences on agricultural growth. While in countries with low export ubiquity, the influence was significant and positive. Besides, that the export diversity of agricultural products promotes agricultural growth was based on trade protection.

Influence of crowding-out effects of compound governance on performance of marketing channels for agricultural products: taking the mode of agricultural leading enterprises plus farmers as an example

HUANG Mengsi;SUN Jian

Chinese Rural Economy,2016,No. 04

【Abstract】 The mode of agricultural leading enterprises plus farmers in the marketing channels for agricultural products has such problems as high default rate, low stability and poor performance. From the perspective of farmers and theories related to the mechanism of governance, this paper conducted an empirical analysis on the influence of crowding-out effects of compound governance on the performance of marketing channels for agricultural products through 578 copies of survey data on farmers from six provinces, such as Hainan Province, Hubei Province, and Henan Province. According to studies, in Chinese trading market of agricultural products, there were Channel Compound Governance I based on traditional governance with social regulations and formal contractual governance as well as Compound Governance Channel II based on relational governance and formal contractual governance. The crowding-out effect of traditional governance with social regulations on formal contractual governance had a negative influence on stability of the mode of agricultural leading enterprises plus farmers, while the crowding-out effect of relational governance on formal contractual governance had a positive influence on stability of the mode of agricultural leading enterprises plus farmers. Besides, the legal awareness of farmers led to a significantly negative adjustment to the relationship between the crowding-out effect of Compound Governance Channel I and stability of channels. However, it led to a significantly positive adjustment to the relationship between the crowding-out effect of Compound Governance Channel II and stability of channels. Besides, stability of marketing channels for agricultural products had a direct influence on the improvement of elastic performance and sales performance of transactions.

?The C2B presale pricing on fresh agricultural products crowdfunding from farm to family

SHAO Tengwei;LYU Xiumei

Chinese Journal of Management Science,2016,Vol 24,No. 11

【Abstract】 Reasonable product pricing is the key to the success of the crowdfunding projects for fresh agricultural products. This paper adopts transaction cost theory, supply chain management theory and the Internet thinking to build an overall pricing strategy characterized by producer aggregation and consumer aggregation, O2O production and marketing docking model and product ladder pricing. The results have shown that compared with the traditional open multi-layered circulation model, the farm to family (F2F) presale of fresh agricultural products crowdfunding has obvious advantages in the production and marketing docking, logistics cost reduction and quality and safety guarantee. It allows consumers to get more customer delivered value and attract them to form bulk orders by ladder pricing with snowball effect so that producers can conduct customized on-demand production accordingly, achieving the Pareto improvements for both customers and producers.

?Quality measurement for China’s agricultural exports: based on the nested logit model

DONG Yinguo;HUANG Junwen

Chinese Rural Economy,2016,No. 11

【Abstract】 The Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures which are closely related to food safety, animal and plant health and environmental safety have become the main obstacles to China’s export of agricultural products since China joined the World Trade Organization. Improving the quality of agricultural products and the efficiency of agricultural production is the urgent problem for China’s agricultural development. This paper takes the most important export market for Chinese agricultural products—Japan as an example. The quality of China’s agricultural exports is measured by the nested logit model and based on the subdivided trade data of Japanese agricultural imports with HS9 customs code from 2005 to 2012. The result of the empirical analysis shows that the quality of China’s agricultural exports within the sample interval has gone through a positive N-type change of ascension, fall and re-ascension. The comparison with other major agricultural exporters reveals that the quality of four categories of Chinese agricultural products, namely vegetables, fruits, coffee and tea, spices and dried fruits and nuts, is basically equal to that of the India products, but it still has great disparity with the agricultural product quality of the Netherlands, France and other countries.

Evolution of the comparative advantage of China’s agricultural products from 1995 to 2013

XU Wei;LU Wencong

Journal of International Trade,2016,No. 09

【Abstract】 This paper examines the empirical dynamics of comparative advantage of China’s agricultural products in the period of 1995– 2013. Based on the HS 6-digit trade data from CEPII–BACI database, this paper uses the distribution dynamics approach to quantify the magnitude of changes in comparative advantage and further investigates whether these changes have been towards technologically more sophisticated or higher quality products. We found that the comparative advantage of Chinese agricultural products exibited substantial volatility, mainly characterized by declining comparative advantages in most of the products with previous comparative advantages, with a larger degree than other major exporting countries. In particular, the declining trend was accelerated after China’s accession to the WTO. In 2013, China had comparative advantage in only 14.5% of the agricultural products. With a low probability of improving its original comparative disadvantage and acquiring new comparative advantage, China’s comparative advantage of agricultural products remains in low sophistication and low quality products, and slow in introducing higher value added products.

R&D knowledge spillovers of agricultural products trade: an empirical analysis based on spatially extended Coe–Helpman model

LIU Shunjia;SHENG Yanchao

Journal of International Trade,2015,No. 09

【Abstract】 Agricultural products trade not only brings the importers physical explicit knowledge such as germ plasm resources, but also brings tacit knowledge such as agricultural managerial experiences which can contribute to subsequent spatial spillovers to the adjacent areas of the agricultural importing regions. Recognizing tacit knowledge as a spatial omitted variable from the tacit knowledge linear model, the paper develops the linear Coe-Helpman paradigm in international R&D spillovers into a non-linear spatial model. Using panel data of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2011, the tests show that not only the agricultural products trade knowledge produce significant first spillover effects on the agricultural total factor productivity in the importing region but the tacit knowledge has significant secondary spillover effects on other regions adjacent to importing regions. Furthermore, the secondary spillover effect is greater than the first spillover effect.

The impact of relational contract stability on the supply chain of fresh agricultural products: from the perspective of subsidy modes for cold chain facilities

XIONG Feng;PENG Jian;JIN Peng;ZHANG Xiangyang;QIU Yun

Chinese Journal of Management Science,2015,Vol 23,No. 08

【Abstract】 Due to the influence of the product characteristics and mode of operation between upstream and downstream of the supply chain of fresh agricultural products, there are many problems such as the weakness of contracts stability and the serious waste of agricultural products. Therefore, it would be of vital significance to explore the stability of contracts from the angle of reducing agricultural products’ wastage. Through building a profit model under two different organizational modes and considering the factor of costs, the article analyzes the impact of introduction of cold chain facilities under relational contracts on the freshness of agricultural products and benefits of participants in the supply chain. It concludes that relational contracts and the appropriate subsidies for agricultural cooperatives from government play a significant role in promoting the freshness of agricultural products and profits of the whole supply chain, which results in the relational contracts stability in the supply chain of fresh agricultural products eventually. Certain references for studying stability of the agricultural product supply chain and quality of agricultural products in the future are provided.

A mathematical analysis of the export potential of Chinese agricultural products to five Central Asian countries


Russian Central Asian & East European Market,2015,No. 01

【Abstract】 In recent years, the economic and trade cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries is developing rapidly. Based on the three economic models of trade specialization coefficient, constant market share and GM (1, 1), this paper analyzes the comparative advantage of agricultural trade between China and the five Central Asian countries and also the growth factors of China’s exports of agricultural products. This study reveals that there is a strong complementarity in agriculture between China and the five Central Asian countries and China’s agricultural products have certain comparative advantage over Central Asian countries. Although there are factors impeding the export growth, the agricultural trade of both parties will continue the fast-growing momentum by 2020. To strengthen the agricultural cooperation between China and Central Asian countries and maintain the export advantage of China’s agricultural products, China should strengthen the regional cooperation and utilize the great opportunity brought by the Silk Road Economic Belt, identify market positions, foster strengths and circumvent weaknesses.

The e-commerce ecosystem of agricultural products: a theoretical research framework

WANG Sheng;DING Yongbing

China Rural Survey,2015,No. 04

【Abstract】 Based on the ecological system theory, the synergetics theory and the transaction cost theory, the paper proposed the concept of agricultural electric commerce (e-commerce) e-cosystem, and built the theoretical research framework of the agricultural e-commerce ecosystem from four aspects of the environment scanning, structure analysis, function analysis, and evolution analysis. The paper points out that agricultural e-commerce ecosystem is a system of openness, interaction, multiple symbiosis, and co-evolution, and dynamic evolution. The external environment and the development stage of itself have important effects on the contradictions and problem of the system. Currently the external environment of China agricultural e-commerce development needs to be improved; the internal structure is not reasonable; the function of information transmission, and supply chain optimization and value-added function yet get full played; and the competition among the e-commerce enterprises is increasingly fierce. Thus, it needs the government to play a good guiding role, vigorously support the development of private agricultural e-commerce enterprises, actively create the fourth party e-commerce service platform of agricultural products, and improve the enterprises' exit mechanism.

Policy evaluation of China’s agricultural market

HU Bingchuan

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 04

【Abstract】 In recent years, prices of China’s agricultural products on the whole are maintained at a relatively high level; and in the market operation of agricultural products (especially bulk farm-products like grain and cotton), there are contradictory phenomena emerging, for example, high yield, high consumption, high import and high inventory are contradictory. At the same time, China’s agricultural policies are faced with problems such as price “floor” and price “ceiling” problems out of production cost increase. To this end, this paper firstly combs market the operational conditions of both the global and China’s agricultural markets in recent years briefly, and focuses on analysis and assessment of China’s major policies in the agricultural market on this basis. This paper thinks that the implied condition for China’s policy logic of agricultural market is the overall level elevation of the price of agricultural products. While under the context of global economic downturn and long-term price plummet of agricultural product price, China’s overall policy system of agricultural market will be faced with great impacts, such as, price inversion, subsidy “yellow line,” and agricultural products smuggling. Finally, for the long-term development of China’s agricultural production, this paper thinks that the focus of policies should be to guarantee agricultural production ability and improve agricultural productivity. There is no sense to simply pursue the growth of output quantity. Therefore, in the future, China should establish an agricultural safety network which, as a stereoscopic agricultural policy system, can achieve agricultural risk sharing and independent production decision, and comprehensively use policy instruments such as supervision, negotiation, subsidy, insurance and credit.

Target price policies of agricultural products: an analysis of the pilot reform of cotton target price in Xinjiang

HUANG Jikun;WANG Dan;HU Jiliang

Chinese Rural Economy,2015,No. 05

【Abstract】 In 2014, China launched the pilot reform for Xinjiang’s cotton target price. In order to understand the implementation of the target price reform, we conduct a field survey in Xinjiang by using the stratified random sampling method. The results of the study show that the reform of target price of cotton has improved the cotton price formation mechanism, protected the interests of farmers in pilot areas, and stabilized the cotton production in Xinjiang, which have basically reached the expected goal of the reform. But we also find that several problems exist in the current reform of cotton target price, namely the huge fiscal costs and risks; the costly policy implementation of governments; the impact on the daily work of local governments; and it is easy to breed corruption and leads to social instability. On the basis of our survey, this paper argues that the government should carefully introduce the target-price policy; if they introduce the policy, then the main goal of the policy is to resist the market price risk, so that not too many types of products could be involved in the target-price reform, and the implementation and operation of the policy need to be further improved in different products.

Measuring and analyzing the agricultural trade cost elasticity between China and BRICS

ZHOU Dan;LU Wanjun

The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2015,Vol 32,No. 01

【Abstract】 In this paper, translog gravity is revised and the domestic democratization as political factor is introduced into it from two paths of export and import. Based on the revised model, the paper measures the agricultural trade cost elasticity in 28 kinds between China and BRICS. The result shows all the elasticity is positive, which means reducing trade cost could increase the volume of trade for the BRICS. However, the difference value between export and import cost elasticity is negative, which implies China does not have a comparative advantage in general. As for the product structure, the superior products should be given priority to promote trade liberalization and facilitation. There exists the potential of intra-industry products trade between China and BRICS. China could deepen division of labor and cooperation with BRICS to reduce trade risk and realize diversification in sustainable development.

Research on the channel structures, members’ efforts and operational efficiency under fresh agricultural products supply chain

PU Xujin;FAN Wangda;WU Ya

Chinese Journal of Management Science,2015,Vol 23,No. 12

【Abstract】 This paper summarizes the features and connotations of three key channel structures of fresh agricultural products supply chain in China and comparatively analyzes the production effort, sales effort and supply chain operational efficiency under channel structures. The results show that (1) the farmers’ risk aversion is a key factor for affecting the channel choice of farmers; (2) when such risk aversion is low, the farmers are willing to choose the direct-to-consumer “farmers + supermarket,” resulting in higher production efforts and sales efforts. When such risk aversion is high, joining “farmers + supermarket” channel structure can help increase not only farmers’ utilities but also production effort and sales effort; (3) compared with the loose channel structure of “farmers + supermarket” supply chain, the symbiotic type is always a better choice for farmers and supermarket because it can raise the utilities of both farmers and supermarkets simultaneously.

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