Sponsor(s): China Association for Disaster Prevention; Institute of Engineering Mechanics, CEA
6 issues per year
Current Issue: Issue 04, 2013
Journal of Natural Disasters, started in 1992, publishes papers on disaster prediction and prevention, disaster risk assessment, disaster mitigation for agriculture, meteorology and city, disaster mitigation policy and management system. It also focuses on social factors of natural disasters, loss prediction of earthquake all over the world, awareness improvement on disaster prevention, the system engineering on disaster prevention and mitigation, and so on.
Ou Jinping, Li Youshan, Shi Peijun, Han Linhai, Xiao Yan, Zhou Xianyan, Cui Jie
Ma Zongjin, Ma Zhiliang, Wang Lanmin, Wang Zifa, Wang Chunyi, Wang Zhenqing, Shan Chunchang, Shi Peijun, Fu Qiang, Lv D
Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,Vol 22,No. 04
There are numerous and uneven models to analyze the risk of flood disaster to date. This paper proposes a basic paradigm of the risk analysis involving meteorological factors and social factors and develops it into an application model consisting of a probability distribution of the extreme annual precipitation and a vulnerability curve of “extreme annual precipitation and the proportion of affected population”. In the model, probability distribution is estimated using the method of information distribution, and the vulnerability curve is constructed using the method of normal information diffusion. The annual risk of flood disaster for the study area is then calculated by integrating the product of the distribution and the curve. The intension of the risk is the expected value of proportion of affected population. The analysis of the case of Heyuan City of Guangdong Province shows that, the model is simple and practical. Clear physical background, unambiguous risk intension, and efficient use of the small sample by the information diffusion technique, ensure the reliability of the result of the risk analysis.