Supervisor(s): Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Sponsor(s): Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (IPLE-CASS) CN：11-1043/C
Chinese Journal of Population Science, sponsored by Institute of Population and Labor Economics at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (IPLE-CASS), has published a large number of influential and high quality theory papers, reflects the latest academic research in the field of population and labor and interdisciplinary timely. It is a good way for people to understand the demographic development and provides theoretical information and countermeasures for the state and government decision-making departments. Chinese Journal of Population Science prefers research papers, reviews and surveys with high quality in the field of population and related fields. The contents include population theory and policy research, population statistics, population and economy, human resources and labor economy, social security research, population and society, international comparison of population, population and ecological environment, ethnic minority population and family planning theory and practice, etc.
2014 saw 29,058 reproductive-age households holding Shanghai hukou (household registration) applied for permission for having a second child, among which 16,639 are families of only one single-child parent, namely, either or both of the couple are the only child of their families. Mostly based on Shanghai’s statistics on application for a second child in 2014, this thesis describes basic demographic, economic and social characteristics of applicant couples, estimates the cumulative probability of second-child applications, predicts the reproduction size and trend of such applicants, analyzes major factors influencing such applications based on relevant materials, so as to provide an empirical analysis and preliminary assessment of the probability and potential influence of Shanghai’s and nationwide lifting of the single-child policy. It is found that, major characteristics of the group sensitive to “selective two-child policy” are: native Shanghai people, those holding higher academic degrees, and those whose first-born is female; major factors influencing application are economic concerns and ability to take care of children. There is a certain degree of “giving birth to a second child before the selective two-child policy is valid” among Shanghai applicants, with only a relatively small proportion. This thesis predicts that approximately 1/3 of Shanghai households with one child will apply for permission to have a second child.
This paper analyzes, based on the population and family planning data provided by the Hubei Provincial Health and Family Planning Commission, the “one-child couples’ fertility behavior since the introduction of the “one-child couples’ eligibility to have two children” policy around one year ago. The results show that the total number of applications to have a second child since the introduction of the policy is 23,457 and the number of newly born second children is 6,052. Judging from age distribution, the summit age of the applicants is 31 and the summit childbearing age is 32. The number of applications in different months displays that eligible one-child couple families respond to some extent to the new policy, while the smooth growth of the number of child births reflects that the child production release, to some extent, lags behind. Comparing it with the fertility data for couples that both come from one-child families, we find that the policy has only a small influence on birth flock-together and rushed child bearing by advanced age women; under the background of the current declining control over the family planning policy, the mismatch between the urban and rural household registration structure and the fertility desire of the fertile women leads to the “cold reception” of the new policy.
This paper conducts an analysis on the structural characteristics of the target population of the “selective two-child policy” based on the information check data of the only-child couples (couples with one spouse being an only child) and their children in 2014. The results show that the only-child couples that are in the post-80s generation are the principle part of the target population. There is 15% of pregnant target population of 35 years old and above. Couples in the target group with a child 10-year-old and below are more likely to have a second child. In terms of the number of application for a second child after the implementation of the “selective two-child policy,” by the end of 2014, 1,067 million only-child couples applied for a second child, the number was 683,300 couples nationally in the second half of 2014 and 463,400 in the first half of 2015. One year after the implementation of the “selective two-child policy,” data suggest that no obvious birth accumulation has been seen at the national or provincial level.
The basic theoretical issues such as whether the labor market regulation can promote the enterprise technical innovation and whether it can create more values for the enterprises decide the direction of the labor system. The author made an empirical study on the problem on the basis of the World Bank’s survey on Chinese enterprises in 2012. The author found the following findings: (1) on the whole, the labor market regulation increases the probability of the enterprise technical innovation; (2) the labor market regulation has a structural influence on the enterprise technical innovation and has a more obvious influence on the process innovation compared with the product innovation; (3) the labor market regulation has an obvious influence on the enterprise technical innovation in the labor- and capital-intensive industries, but has no obvious influence on the technical innovation of enterprises in the technology-intensive industry; and (4) the term of labor contract has a regulatory effect, and the higher proportion of temporary employment will weaken the acceleration effect of the labor market regulation on the technical innovation. The author holds that, during the current stage, it is helpful for the enterprise technical innovation to build the harmonious labor relation through strengthening the labor market regulation, which can achieve the win-win result of the employees and long-term capital interest. However, the structural difference shall be considered in the decision-making process.
Based on panel data from 2000 to 2012 on the provincial level, this paper measured regional cultivated land pressure and its changing trend in China with modified cultivated land index. Based on that, the paper also conducted an empirical study of variable regression on cultivated land pressure and urbanization. It was found that one percentage point rise of cultivated land index will bring 0.26 percentage point rise of urbanization rate in China. Moreover, it also applies to the three lagging terms of cultivated land pressure index, that is, one percentage point rise of cultivated land index will bring 0.16 percentage point rise of urbanization rate. The influencing mechanism still exists after removal of periodic component in cultivated land pressure and urbanization rate. It shows that the cultivated land pressure based on geographical factors and natural endowment is a long-term influencing factor on China’s urbanization. However, the urbanization mode dependent on land supply capacity to balance regional development twisted the direction of resource allocation, and led to the unbalance in regional development and non-intensive use in land. As a result, the paper suggests that urbanization should be combined with sustainable development of agriculture, and urbanization mode should be different and progressive.
Currently, the trend of transnational talent flow has become increasingly evident. The international talent influx could promote the development of the host country's export trade through transaction cost reduction effect, transaction information acquisition effect, and transaction contract implementation effect. This paper, based on the panel data of 29 Chinese provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2001 to 2011, conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of the international talent influx on the growth of China's export trade. The results show that the international talent flow could accelerate the growth of export trade, but there is regional disparity due to different ways of export trade. In different areas, the promotion effects on high-technology goods and non-high-technology goods export are also different. This paper maintains that the government should attach great importance to the impact of international talent influx on the export trade. Based on that, it should formulate effective strategies to attract international talent and amplify the promotion effects of the international talent flow on the commercial information flow and the international goods trade flow, so as to guarantee the stable growth of the export trade.
Industry survey data from 1930s are used by the author of this article to study the use of child labor during the early industrialization of China and its impact on the economic performances of different industries in which child labor has been used. It has been found that child labor was widely used in modern China. There were also distinctive differences in child labor use between different regions and industries. Child labor was intensively used in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Hebei. The textile, paper and printing industries had higher absolute number of child labor than other industries. Moreover, from the study of the impacts of child labor on economic performances it has been found that in general child labor had no significant impact on improvement of industry performance. However, when the proportion of child labor to the total labor force was more than 10%, for every 1% increase of the number of child labor, the total commodity value increased by about 0.07%, contributing only 3% of the commodity output of the industry in which child labor had been used. It can be seen that child labor has no actual contribution to modern industrial development. Wide use of child labor was a serious exploitation of the minor.
