Trend of disability-free life expectancy of the registered elderly in Shanghai from 1998 to 2013

LI Qiang;DONG Junhan;LI Jie

Population Research,2020,Vol 44,No. 01

The life expectancy of the registered elderly in Shanghai increased steadily from 1998 to 2013, but their disability-free life expectancy changed from an upward trend in 1998–2008 to a downward trend in 2008–2013. The proportion of disability-free life expectancy in life expectancy followed the model of expansion of morbidity from 1998 to 2003, the model of compression of morbidity from 2003 to 2008, and again the model of expansion of morbidity from 2008 to 2013. The increase in disability-free life expectancy from 1998 to 2008 was mainly due to the decline of mortality; the effect of the decline in disability-free rate from 2008 to 2013 was offset by that of the decline in mortality; and the increase in disability-free life expectancy was driven by both the decline in mortality and the increase in disability-free life expectancy from 2003 to 2008. The decline in disability-free life expectancy from 2008 to 2013 was mainly attributable to the decrease in the disability-free rate, which offset the increase brought about by the decline of mortality. The social and economic development, the advance of medical technology, and the implementation of medical security systems in Shanghai have all had impacts on the changes in the disability-free life expectancy of the elderly. The rapid increase in per capita health expenditure in Shanghai since 2008 may serve as a reflection of the transition of disability-free life expectancy for the elderly.