Mobility transition of Chinese population

DUAN Chengrong;XIE Donghong;LYU Lidan

Population Research,2019,Vol 43,No. 02

Research on rural left-behind population: basic standpoint, misunderstanding and theoretical turn

YE Jingzhong

Population Research,2019,Vol 43,No. 02

Rethinking China’s actual and desired fertility: now and future

WANG Jinying;MA Zhiyue;LI Jiarui

Population Research,2019,Vol 43,No. 02

This paper used the data of the seven northern provinces in the 2017 China Fertility Survey, to assess the fertility status and actual fertility level in China, particularly in the northern provinces, with total fertility rate, parity progression-based total fertility rate, lifetime fertility rate, and fertility patterns (age patterns of marriage and childbearing). The results suggest that the fertility level in China is indeed at a moderately low fertility level between 1.5 and 1.9, but not at a very low level. The two-child policy has a significant effect on the fertility of the second child. Parity progression-based desired fertility tends to more truly represent the actual desired fertility. According to the parity progression-based desired fertility at ages 20–29 and 30–39, there is a possibility of an increase in future fertility in China.

Fertility levels and trends in china’s ethnic minority provinces (autonomous regions), 2006–2016: based on 2017 China Fertility Survey

YUAN Xin;LIU Huiru;LIU Xuyang;LIU Zhixiao

Population Research,2019,Vol 43,No. 02

Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper analyzes fertility levels and trends over 2006–2016 in the ethnic minority provinces in China, using period and cohort measures of fertility incorporating quantity, structure and timing dimensions. The results show that the total fertility rate of ethnic minority provinces has increased to the replacement level in the past ten years, which is higher than the national average. The fertility rate of ethnic minority population is higher than that of the Han people, and this is the case at all parities. The second-child fertility of Han has increased tremendously, highlighting the marked effects of the two-child policy. By ethnic group, the Uygur and Miao ethnic groups have strong fertility behaviors, and meanwhile, the Yi ethnic group tends to have two children, while the Tibetans are reluctant to have more children. The fertility peak of ethnic minorities and Han women of childbearing age has been postponed from 20–24 years old to 25–29 years old, and the fertility level at the older-age group of Han ethnic group has increased, the childbearing age is gradually raised, and the childbearing age of Han ethnic group is later than that of ethnic minority. Overall, the ethnic minority provinces are at a moderate fertility rate level.

The future of China’s floating population

ZHAI Zhenwu;WANG Yu;SHI Qi

Population Research,2019,Vol 43,No. 02