This journal is one of the earliest journals on population science in China. It is issued worldwide and indexed by CSSCI, and it is listed as the national Chinese core periodicaland the core periodical on population science.
Editor-in-Chief Yu Xiao
Deputy Editor-in-Chief Wang Xiaofeng, Wang Huabo
Editorial Board Wang Guangzhou, Wang Jinying, Yi Hao, Tian Yipeng, Sun Changzhi, Zhu Yu, Zhang Shiwei, Qiu Hong, Lu Jiehua, Chen Yingzi, Li Shuzhuo, Fan Lida, Yang Chenggang, Yang
While the size of elderly migrants has increased when the size of total migrants has decreased in recent years, this segment of population has been covered either in the research of migrants or in the research of population aging, and thus little attention has been devoted to them. Utilizing the 2016 migration dynamic surveillance survey, this paper attempts to paint an overall picture of the basic characteristics of elderly migrants in the era of urbanization and population aging. Findings have suggested that the elderly migrants differ greatly in individual demographic, migratory and socioeconomic attributes, as well as in household context, whether or not they are measured subjectively or objectively. Low capital endowments, including human, economic, political and social capital, render rural-urban migrants triply disadvantaged as rural people, outsiders, and the elderly. Similarly, cumulative disadvantages from early life stages have been observed in late lives. As they further age, their economic well-being is further deteriorated. Based on these findings, this paper suggests topics for future studies: ascertaining the size of elderly migrants, understanding their demand at the place of destination, providing needed support to improve their wellbeing, and facilitating social integration of elderly migrants if they have such desire.
This paper argued the new thinking of old age and aging based on the theory and method of prospective age, which appeared in international academic circles in recent years. According to the theory and method of prospective age, the current situation of population aging and future population dynamics were recalculated, which included several important demographic indicators such as the starting point of old age, the proportion of the elderly, the proportion of working-age population and the Old-age Dependency Rate (ODR). Compared with the traditional definition of old age, the new old age re-defines the different scenario of population development trends in China. According to the new standard of old age with 15 year’s prospective age, the aging context of China’s entire economic society would not be as severe as the traditional definition of old age. The starting point of old age would change dynamically as the prospective age continued to rise, from 61.5 years old during 2015–2020 to nearly 70 years old in the middle of the 21st century. The proportion of the elderly would still show an upward trend, but the increase and speed would not be as severe and rapid as the situation under the traditional definition of old age. The change in the proportion of working-age population tended to be moderate, which would decline first and maintain at a stable level in the second half of the 21st century. The uptrend of the ODR was not as rapid as the situation under the traditional definition of old age, and there would be a decrease after the peak in 2060. In short, the new thinking on old age based on the prospective age will help to transform the conception of old age and aging of the whole society.
The existing literature shows that the disruption and assimilation effects are mainly inferred by comparing the fertility level of the temporary rural-to-urban migrants with the rural population, but this research idea cannot directly prove that the flow event interrupts the fertility behavior, because the increase in the average fertility age can occur both in the flow and after the flow. Therefore, this paper is inspired by the idea of regression discontinuity and based on National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey, and analyzes the changes of the fertility level of the temporary rural-to-urban migrants and the disruption and assimilation effect of the reproductive behavior by using the fertility history reconstruction method and the parity progression ratio indicators. The results showed that the first marriage rate, the first child and the second child fertility rates of the temporary rural-to-urban migrants were slightly delayed in 2015, and the fertility level of the first child peak age decreased slightly and the second child fertility level decreased significantly. The parity progression ratio trend further confirmed the above conclusions, and that is, the second child parity progression rate, 3+ child parity progression rate and the sum of the parity progression rate showed a more significant decline. There was no significant disturbance to the first childbearing behavior, and a significant disruption effect was observed in the behavior of the second childbearing. The assimilation effect is relatively significant, the fertility levels of the first child and the second child of the inflow place are significantly lower than those of the outflow place with certain fertility delay. Even considering the effects of fertility tempo in different age groups, the assimilation effect is relatively obvious. Finally, it is pointed out that the analysis of assimilation effect of temporary rural-to-urban migrants is difficult to control the impact of fertility tempo effects, which depends on the improvement of analysis methods and longitudinal tracking data.
As the size of floating population increases in recent years, they have been an important part of the urban resident population in China. Pursuing the development for the benefit of all, basic urban public services are now covering all permanent residents. Studying the marriage and childbearing behaviors of urban floating population not only responds to the social needs of the new era, but also has important implication to policy practice. From the perspective of event history analysis, this paper studies the marriage and childbearing behaviors of the floating population in urban China. Using data of 2015 migrant population dynamic monitoring survey, both of the floating population and the household registered population are investigated in eight cities. These cities are Beijing, Shanghai, Dalian, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Hefei, Guangzhou and Guiyang. Kaplan Meier estimation and accelerated failure time model of Log Logistic distribution are combined to analyze age at the first marriage, age at the first birth as well as the interval between the first birth and the second birth. The results illustrate that comparing with the household registered population, the floating population has a higher risk of the first marriage and the second birth while their risk of the first birth is lower. Moreover, the impact of geographic range of migration on the timing of marriage and birth is statistically significant. Comparing with city level, migration on province level shows higher risk of the first marriage and lower risks of the first birth and birth intervals, while migration on county level shows later first birth and longer second birth interval.
The capability in activities of daily living is the most common problem that affects the health and life quality of the elderly. Based on the ten-year data from the Sample Survey of the Aged Population in Urban/Rural China, this paper conducted an in-depth study on the developmental trajectories of the activities of daily living of the elderly. It was found that the developmental trajectories of ADL presented three types: rapid decline from low starting point, sharp decline from high starting point, and steady decline from high starting point, and that the developmental trajectories of IADL was divided into two types: rapid decline from low starting point, and slow decline from high starting point. There were significant differences in the types of developmental trajectories of ADL and IADL of the elderly with different social and economic characteristics. For the aged women, the elderly of minority groups, the elderly with low educational level, aged farmers and aged citizens who have never had a formal job, their trajectories of the activities of daily living are more likely to develop in a poor mode. The shape of the developmental trajectory was influenced by the sociological characteristics, health status, social interaction, and family support. Based on results of the empirical study, the author of this article believes that China should strengthen the fairness orientation of social policies, expand the positive effect of socioeconomic status on health. Moreover, families and social forces should be mobilized to improve the health of the elderly by strengthening the communication and mutual assistance between the elderly and their family members, neighbors and friends. At the same time, based on the patterns and characteristics of the dynamic development of ADL for the elderly, a suitable service system of social care should be established.
Low birth rate is a demographic result of demographic transition. The development of China’s low birth rate is characterized by distinct stages of the inverse stage of low birth rate, the preparatory stage of low birth rate and low birth rate. China has short preparation time of entering a state of low birth rate, and its overall development speed is fast. In addition, in the development of China’s low birth rate, the feature of “getting fewer before getting rich” is extremely obvious. Simulation results under different population forecast programs show that even if the universal two-child policy starts to be implemented, China will almost inevitably enter and may face a population age structure of ultra-low birth rate for a long time around 2030. The decline in the size and proportion of children in China will be among the highest in the world, and China will play a relatively leading role in the process of low birth rate. Compared with other countries and regions in the world, the problem of low birth rate in China is more prominent than the problem of population aging, which will undoubtedly aggravate China’s predicament in coping with the challenge of population aging. China needs to formulate a combination policy of encouraging fertility in population, economy and society at a strategic level, to improve the development status of low birth rate in the future and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.
