Sponsor(s): Jilin University
6 issues per year
Current Issue: Issue 01, 2021
This journal is one of the earliest journals on population science in China. It is issued worldwide and indexed by CSSCI, and it is listed as the national Chinese core periodicaland the core periodical on population science.
Wang Xiaofeng, Wang Huabo
Wang Guangzhou, Wang Jinying, Yi Hao, Tian Yipeng, Sun Changzhi, Zhu Yu, Zhang Shiwei, Qiu Hong, Lu Jiehua, Chen Yingzi, Li Shuzhuo, Fan Lida, Yang Chenggang, Yang
Is the desire to have a second birth of floating population really very low?—Based on the revision of the research object
Population Journal,2021,Vol 43,No. 01
The reproductive behavior of the floating population is related to the supply of public services and the allocation of public resources, and will also affect the stability of the labor market. Fertility desire can provide important parameters to predict fertility level, and the floating population’s fertility desire shows its own characteristics in the collision of the fertility culture in out-flow areas and the fertility culture in in-flow areas. Therefore, it has both theoretical and practical significance to study the floating population’s fertility desire. The existing relevant research results show that in China and in some provinces the proportion of the floating population that explicitly intends to have a second birth is less than 30%, even lower than the national average level. From the perspective of predicting the future fertility level and providing policy reference, there are horizontal and vertical biases in the selection of research objects in research on the desire to have a second birth of floating population: the horizontal bias is due to not considering the policy difference between urban and rural areas before the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy; and the vertical bias is due to the failure to distinguish the fertility desire of different groups of floating population. Through the revision of the research object, this paper provides new ideas for a more accurate understanding of the desire to have a second birth of the floating population. On the one hand, it includes the floating population who has already had a second birth, avoiding the result that the majority of the research samples are those with low willingness to have two children, which are caused by the situation that some of the rural-urban floating population who have high willingness to have two children may have completed the second birth at the time of the survey. In the future, the relevant retrospective problems can be also included in the investigation. On the other hand, it focuses on the post-80s and the post-90s (namely, people born in the 1980s and people born in the 1990s) floating population. The research object of fertility desire should focus on them because they are the main population having two children for a period in the future. In addition, it is important to compare different generations to improve the validity of the research conclusion. Based on the dynamic survey data of the floating population in 2016 provided by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People’s Republic of China, this paper has adopted the multinomial logistic regression. The research results are as follows. Relatively speaking, the desire of the post-80s and the post-90s floating population to have a second birth is not very low, and the proportion of planning to have a second birth is 47.0%, 8.4 percentage points higher than that of the post-70s floating population, which is also far higher than that of the existing research on floating population and resident population (20%–30%). There is a large regional difference in the desire of the post-80s and the post-90s floating population to have a second birth. Therefore, the comparative analysis of different regions should be strengthened, and relevant economic and social supporting policies should be formulated according to local conditions. The desire of the post-80s and the post-90s floating population to have a second birth is affected by subjective and objective factors. In order to make the floating population (especially the nearly 30% of the post-80s and the post-90s floating population who have not decided whether to have a second birth) have children according to the policy, the public policy should give priority to the following ones. The construction of urban nurseries and kindergartens should give full consideration to the care service needs of floating population’s infants; the coverage rate of basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents of floating population and the coverage rate of maternity insurance for the employed floating population should be improved; employment guidance and training for the floating population should be strengthened; and more attention should be paid to bringing employment with entrepreneurship and the correct guidance of the concept of fertility.
Population Journal,2021,Vol 43,No. 01
The Internet not only directly provides assistance for the employment of disabled people, but also indirectly influences the employment of disabled people by interacting with other factors that affect the employment of this marginal group. The research analyzes whether disabled people use the Internet or not, and meanwhile analyzes various factors that affect the employment of disabled people to explore the mechanism of the Internet that influence the employment of disabled people. Based on the literature review, we divide the factors that affect the employment of disabled people into three categories, namely, demographic factors, physiological factors, and economic factors. We also divide this group into two levels and define a total of eight situations. The direction and extent of the impact of factors on the employment of the disabled are estimated. In addition, we analyze the role of the Internet in the employment of disabled people through an interactive model. Based on J provincial data of dynamically updated national data in 2018 that involve the basic service status and needs of the disabled people, which are conducted by the China Disabled Persons’ Federation, and the methods of Hauser et al. (2005), Liu (2006), and Yi et al. (2019) to analyze the changes in the influence of various factors on the dependent variable over time, this paper explores the impacts of the Internet on various influencing factors when the Internet is regarded as an environmental variable. Empirical studies have found that although the Internet cannot bridge the urban-rural gap in the employment of disabled people, the Internet is of remarkable significance indeed in promoting the employment of this under-privileged and vulnerable group. At the individual level, the Internet promotes the employment of disabled people by expanding the social circle of them, partially replacing educational capital, and eliminating gender differences. At the family level, the Internet supports the employment of disabled people by optimizing the allocation of family capital. The employment reform that the Internet brings about has greatly reduced the degree of restrictions that their physical defects impose on the employment of disabled people, and new emergent and promising occupations that the Internet gives rise to are more friendly to disabled people. At the institutional level, the Internet has made it easier for disabled people to conduct the “free-ride” behavior, and also magnified the negative effects of the domestic social security system for the employment of this group. Compared with the previous literature, this study explores the matter regarding the employment of disabled people in the following two aspects. Firstly, it verifies the essential role that the Internet plays in the employment of disabled people from a micro perspective. Secondly, the role of the Internet in promoting the employment of disabled people is also discussed. The micro-recognition of the relationship between the Internet and the employment of disabled people and the current macro-recognition of the importance of the Internet in the employment of disabled people have complemented each other, which has greatly deepened our holistic comprehension of the link between the Internet and the employment of disabled people. The understanding of the influence path of the Internet in promoting the employment of disabled people will be instrumental in grasping how the influence of the Internet spreads, thereby assisting policymakers to formulate more targeted employment promotion policies for disabled people.
Population Journal,2021,Vol 43,No. 01
In recent years, there are two phenomena in China, namely, the second child’s birth willingness and behavior are distinct due to the difference of the first child’s gender, and some families are worried about two boys. However, the existing theories of gender preference and cost-effectiveness are insufficient in explaining these phenomena. To seek another explanation, this paper defines “fear of two boys” as a phenomenon that families are afraid of the gender structure of two boys only, and tries to prove its existence in some families by using nine provincial regions’ data of 2017 China Fertility Survey and from three respects, namely, ideal gender structure of children, fertility plan and fertility behavior of the second child. During the analysis, this paper tries to control the influence of gender preference, fertility policies, and women’s fertility ability on the plan and behavior of having a second child. The findings are as follows. First, in terms of the ideal gender structure of children, generally, except for no child, the lowest proportion of women at the childbearing age want to have two boys without a girl. This phenomenon also appears in other sub-groups. This indicates that the gender structure of two boys without a girl is the least ideal structure among women at childbearing age. Second, in terms of the fertility plan of the second child, among those who expect one boy and one girl, compared with those with the first child as a girl, women with the first child as a boy have a higher proportion of no intention to have a second child. Regression results also show that women with the first child as a boy have a lower intention to have a second child than those with the first child as a girl. Third, in terms of the fertility behavior of the second child, among those who expect one boy and one girl, compared with those with the first child as a girl, women with the first child as a boy have a higher proportion of no behavior to have a second child. Regression results also show that the women with the first boy child as a boy are less likely to have a second child than those women with the first child as a girl. These three findings together prove that at the present, the phenomenon of fear of two boys exists in some families. Finally, the research summarizes the evolution of family attitudes towards boys since the 1950s in China from hoping for many boys to must have one boy and then the fear of two boys, which reflects the subtle changes in gender preference in Chinese families. Due to the fear of two boys, the positive effect of gender preference on actual fertility level in improving proximate determinants of low fertility model, raised by Bongaarts, cannot cover the phenomenon in the research, and it may suggest that the model needs to be corrected and improved. The concept of fear of two boys can explain the deviation between fertility intention and fertility behavior of some Chinese families, and has policy implications for improving the fertility level of women regarding the second child.