Management World is supervised by Development Research Center of The State Council, and sponsored by Development Research Center of The State Council. It aims to reflect the multi-field and multi-disciplinary research on China’s economic and social management issues, and to provide services for China’s economic reform and development. Its scope covers fiscal and financial research, rural economics, macroeconomic management, public management, business management, industrial and regional development. The journal, included in CSSCI and JST, has been in the top list in the field of economic management for many years, and achieved a very high reputation from readers all over the world.
Editor-in-Chief Li Kemu
Deputy Editor-in-Chief Tian Yuan,He Shaohua, Lu Jian, Jiang Dongsheng
Editorial Board Ma Xiaogang, Qiao Renyi, Li Jiping, Li Menggang, Li Peiyu, Zhang Xinmmin, Shen Bainian, Chen Dongsheng, Cheng Quansheng, Zhao Jie,Tuo Zhen
The short-selling and margin-trading program implemented in 2010 is an innovation of Chinese capital market institution with intent to improve the market efficiency by introducing short selling. However, the trading data about margin trading and short selling indicate that short selling makes up only about 1% of total trading volume. How will the asymmetry between margin trading and short selling influence capital market is an important question. Using DID model, this paper studies the impact of the program on the analysts’ earnings forecast behavior through the perspective of analysts, the important information intermediary of the capital market. We find that the program does not improve analysts’ forecast accuracy but results in analysts’ forecast optimism. And the forecast optimism arises from margin trading not short selling. Further analyses indicate the above relation between the program and analysts’ forecast optimism is more significant when the market is bullish or institutional ownership is high and less significant when more reputed analysts follow the firm. Analysts increase the stock turnover by releasing optimistic forecasts and these analysts have more chance to be elected as star analysts by institutional investors. And the forecast optimism also leads to stock price crash risk. The findings in this paper indicate that large volume of margin trading under the program pushes analysts to make optimistic forecasts to increase trading commissions and purse career advancement and finally impairs the market efficiency. It has important implications for regulators to prevent the speculation of margin trading and reduce the market friction of short selling.
This paper studied the impact of interregional trust on conglomerates’ remote development and distinguished their influence mechanisms. Based on the enterprise boundary theory, this paper firstly points out that the remote transaction cost and conglomerates’ organizational cost, which can be reduced by interregional trust, have opposite effects on conglomerates’ remote development and the reduction degree can decide the degree of conglomerates’ remote development. This paper empirically tested the manually compiled geographical data of the parent enterprises and subsidiaries as well as the interregional trust data surveyed by the Chinese Entrepreneurs Survey System (CESS) from 2008 to 2013. The results show that (1) The higher the trust between the parent enterprise and the remote subsidiaries is, the more the subsidiaries established there are, which indicates that the interregional trust has largely reduced conglomerates’ organizational cost and promoted conglomerates’ remote development. This conclusion is still robust with endogeneity considered. (2) Further studies have shown that interregional trust has a stronger effect on remote subsidiaries in areas where market entry is less difficult, and this effect is mainly found in private conglomerates. (3) From the perspective of economic consequences, conglomerates’ organizational cost can be reduced by interregional trust, which is also reflected in reducing the overhead expense and improving the performance of remote subsidiaries. This paper integrates the important informal institutional perspective of interregional trust into the analytical framework of conglomerates’ remote development based on single-country data, and expands the research on conglomerates’ development from the perspectives and influence mechanisms.
With the increasing attention to Chinese socio-economic issues, the number of corresponding household surveys has increased gradually. The surveys have strong similarities in the survey method, target population, and even the design of research topics. Therefore, this paper attempts to compare several sets of Chinese household survey data commonly used in previous studies of the demographic deviation of the sample population, the correlation between consumption and income, and differences in the explanatory factor of income distribution and income inequality. The findings indicate that (1) there was a certain degree of demographic deviation in all the survey data, but the influence of such deviation on income level and income inequality was not significant; (2) the correlation between consumption and income was weak and was similar to the effect of metric error of variables on regression results; (3) it is difficult to explain the logarithmic variances of different data sources from the characteristics of variable structure and coefficient.
In order to inhibit the speculation on new shares, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges introduced relevant regulations at the end of 2013 to limit the price declared on the first day of IPO to no more than 144% of the IPO price (this paper defines it as the IPO first day price limit policy). Based on 1194 IPO companies in China from 2009 to 2015, this paper empirically tests the impact of the Policy on investors’ new share speculation. The results show that the Policy intensifies the speculation in the initial stage of IPO, making the new shares show significantly higher actual first day return, more times of consecutive limit-ups and high actual turnover rate; the Policy also promotes the speculation of secondary offerings, which significantly increases the stock price volatility, turnover rate and stock pricing after IPO, resulting in the long-term high stock price of secondary offerings, and further weakening the negative correlation between the actual first day rate of return and the future market performance of new shares. The expansion study also finds that after the Policy was implemented, the speculation of new shares with speculation concept has become more serious; the IPO pricing control launched in 2014 has had a policy superposition effect with the Policy, strengthening the negative impact of the latter; in addition, the Policy also significantly increases the synchronicity of new shares after IPO. Generally speaking, the effect of the Policy is not satisfactory. It not only fails to restrain the speculation of new shares, but also encourages investors’ new share speculation, which is unconducive to the price discovery of new shares and reduces the pricing efficiency of the stock market. In theory, this paper enriches the literature of IPO and the economic consequences of trading supervision system, and in practice, it provides important implications for improving IPO supervision system.
This study explores how institutional and individual investors respond to analyst ratings. Using a unique account-level trading dataset taken from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, we obtain direct evidence to show the following. (1) Institutional investors are significantly net buyers (net sellers) on “strong buy” and “buy” (“hold” and “sell”) recommendations; (2) individual investors, in contrast, exhibit abnormal trade reactions opposite to those of institutional investors; (3) institutional investors’ response to analyst ratings would be weaken by firm’s bad corporate governance and information opacity. Our results are robust to alternative measures and different specifications. This study provides support and suggestions for regulators’ concerns about the sub-optimal investment decisions made by individual investors who are unaware of the potential conflicts of interest analysts may face.
Economic agglomeration and energy saving and emission reduction are the primary driver and objective function of China’s economic development transformation, respectively. Whether their corresponding policies could achieve a win-win effect is the key for China’s green development transformation. This paper theoretically and empirically investigated the influencing mechanism of economic agglomeration on energy saving and emission reduction against the background of China’s urban agglomeration boom and regional harmonious development. We introduced energy consumption and carbon emissions into the traditional production density model as input and undesirable output, respectively, to theoretically discuss the nonlinear influencing mechanism of agglomeration and energy intensity on carbon emission intensity. Furthermore, based on the panel data of China’s 30 provincial areas over 1995–2016, we used the dynamic spatial panel Dubin model to verify the explanatory power of our theoretical model. According to the results, economic agglomeration and carbon emission intensity show a typical inverted N-shaped relationship, while energy intensity and carbon emission intensity have a typical inverted U-shaped relationship. When reaching a certain threshold, agglomeration can simultaneously exert an energy-saving effect and an emission-reduction effect. Moreover, energy intensity can be a mediator variable of economic agglomeration to mitigate carbon emissions, namely that agglomeration exerts not only a direct effect but also an indirect effect on carbon emission intensity through energy intensity. Carbon emissions and energy intensity both show an evident snow ball effect in the time dimension and an obvious strategic competition effect in the spatial dimension. Accordingly, we argued that in vigorously impelling urban agglomeration, China should make efforts to promote the positive impacts of economic agglomeration on energy saving and emission reduction through consistent policies and enhance the interregional linkage and coordination of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies.
During the process of accelerating the liberalization of China’s capital account, it is an urgent reform agenda that how to sequence the deregulation of the different sub-items of the capital account. Based on the de jure measure of capital account liberalization designed by Guisinger and Brune, this paper adopts the linear threshold model and the framework of economic growth to empirically analyze the threshold effects when opening each sub-item of capital account for the 112 countries (or regions) during the period of 1970–2004. It is concluded that there are significant threshold effects for the sub-items of the capital account in initial GDP per capita and institutional quality. Moreover, compared with outflow of FDI and inflow of portfolio investment, the threshold value for the inflow of FDI and credit and the outflow of credit and portfolio investment is much lower. Therefore, the latter could be firstly free of control. The real estate has the highest threshold value and should be deregulated at last. Finally, referring to the results of this paper, we further discuss the capital account liberalization pilot reform in the free trade zone of China.
