Sponsor(s): Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
12 issues per year
Current Issue: Issue 06, 2020
Journal of Finance and Economics is supervised by Ministry of Education of PRC, and sponsored by Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. It aims to include research results on the major theories and practical problems in China’s reform and opening up and modernization of economic construction. Its scope covers all the major fields of Economics, including Public Economy, Finance, Accounting, Economic history, Regional Economics, Industrial Economics, International Economics. The Journal is included in CSSCI.
Reevaluation on China’s real trade benefit: a research based on the export implied environmental cost
Journal of Finance and Economics,2020,Vol 46,No. 06
The direct cause of Sino-US trade frictions lies in the fact that the US believes that China’s long-standing trade surplus has made China obtain the so-called “unequal interests.” However, China bears the environmental pollution loss caused by the production of a large number of trade products in the large volume of import and export trade. This paper used the real implied pollution emission model in foreign trade to account for the implied industrial pollution emission in import and export trade, and used the structural decomposition model to analyze the reasons for the change of the implied pollution emission in import and export trade from five aspects, namely, emission intensity, technical structure, import and export scale, import intermediate input, and import and export structure, combining with the ExternE model and Logistic model to account for economic losses caused by all kinds of implied pollution emission in the trade. The environmental cost of pollutants is included in the trade interest system to evaluate China’s real trade interest. It comes to the following conclusions. First, during 2007–2015, in addition to the V-shaped change in the implied emissions of smoke (dust), the closer industrial production links, technical links and the decreasing intensity of pollution emissions made the other implied emissions decrease year by year. This shows that the emission reduction strategy cannot be achieved at the expense of export scale, and we should focus on the intensity of pollution emission, the upgrading of trade structure and the terminal treatment of pollutants. Second, the import intermediate input for export should be eliminated from the import, otherwise, the import implied exhaust gas emissions of 23.08%–32.70% and the import implied effluent discharge of 23.49%–33.59% will be overestimated, which will lead to the overestimation of China’s real trade interests. Third, the loss of real welfare of the industrial sector’s export trade caused by the three industrial wastes is about 9% every year. The human health loss caused by the exhaust gas accounts for the highest proportion of the total export implied emission environmental cost, followed by the agricultural loss and waste water loss caused by the exhaust gas. Fourth, there is no directly inevitable relationship among the contribution rate of trade, the emission of industrial pollutants and the rate of economic loss. The marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in four aspects. First, the implied environmental cost of net export is removed from the net added value of trade to examine a country’s real trade interests. Second, the research on trade implied emissions is further expanded to study the environmental costs and real trade benefits of trade implied emissions, and the research subject is also changed from single carbon dioxide emissions to general pollutant emissions. Third, the structural decomposition of the cross-period changes in the emissions of the implied pollutants of value-added trade is carried out in order to find out the impact mechanism behind them. Fourth, the research cycle is 2004–2014, which can make a more objective and in-depth analysis of the implied pollution cost and real trade benefits of China’s value-added trade under different international economic and trade relations before and after the crisis.
Journal of Finance and Economics,2020,Vol 46,No. 06
China’s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, which is the most distinctive feature of China’s economy in the new era. Industrial upgrading is the core and key to China’s future high-quality economic development. The overall change of the international pattern leads to China’s need to find more internal driving forces for economic development. In this context, the biggest innovation of this paper is to explore a new way to promote industrial upgrading relying on the integration of domestic market from the perspective of domestic market integration and resource allocation. This paper regarded the construction of the high-speed rail as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the panel data of 2004–2016, a multi-period DID model was constructed to study the impact and mechanism of high-speed rail on industrial upgrading. This paper found that on the whole, the construction of the high-speed rail can significantly improve the rationalization and advanced level of a city’s industrial structure, and the estimation results are still robust after considering the assumptions and a series of factors that may interfere with the estimation results. The analysis of the impact mechanism showed that the construction of high-speed rail significantly promotes the flow of labor between cities, and promotes the rationalization and upgrading of industrial institutions by triggering economies of scale, technological innovation and capital labor allocation. Among them, economies of scale have the greatest contribution to the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure, followed by technological innovation and capital labor allocation. Therefore, it is necessary to create conditions to exert technological innovation and spillover effects and improve capital labor allocation. Further mechanism decomposition showed that high-speed rail construction has a more significant effect on the overall economic development level and the higher-level industrial structure of the city, and the higher-level changes in the industrial structure are mainly due to the optimal re-allocation of resources between cities; cities with relatively poor development base benefit from the optimization and re-allocation of resources within the city after the construction of the high-speed rail, and the level of rationalization of the industrial structure has been significantly improved. The findings of this paper on the facts and mechanisms for the promotion of the high-speed rail to promote industrial upgrading showed that high-speed rail construction will promote the deepening of industrial division of labor between regions, improve resource allocation efficiency, and urge new development impetus in production industry and economic development, but it does not mean that all cities can achieve the desired effect after the construction of high-speed rail. The construction of high-speed rail in China is accompanied by the general trend of industrial transfer and upgrading in developed regions. Compared with the existing poorly-developed regions, the high-speed rail has optimized the allocation of factors in cities with relatively good economic development. The large differences in the capital, technology and infrastructure of the region under the big country’s economy determine the particularity of China’s industrial upgrading. Based on the research findings, this paper proposes the following policy implications. In the historical process of large-scale construction of China’s high-speed rail, accelerated industrial restructuring, and transformation of economic development mode, it is necessary to coordinate the synchronization of high-speed rail construction and industrial transformation and upgrading, and continue to improve the efficiency of resource allocation by developing and optimizing high-speed rail networks to reform and innovate. Deeply excavating and continuously releasing the resource reconfiguration effect of high-speed rail construction will provide support for industrial upgrading and high-quality development under the new normal.