Sponsor(s): Chinese Society for Microbiology
6 issues per year
Current Issue: Issue 04, 2020
Chinese Journal of Virology, an academic periodical established in 1985, publishes Original Articles, Brief Reports, Reviews, and so on, covering the advances and achievements of fundamental and applied research concerning human, animal, plant, and insect viruses as well as bacteriophages and prions. The subscribers of Chinese Journal of Virology are mainly workers in research institutes, universities, and other institutions of virological and biological studies in China, as well as world-known databases and libraries. Chinese Journal of Virology is supervised by the China Association for Science and Technology, sponsored by the Chinese Society for Microbiology, run by the National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, and published by its Editorial Office. The International Standard Serial Number is ISSN 1000-8721; the Domestic Journal Number is CN 11-1865/R; the Domestic Postal Distribution Code is 82-227 (domestically distributed by all local post offices in China); the Overseas Distribution Code is BM6448 (distributed by China International Book Trading Corporation). Chinese Journal of Virology has been published bimonthly since 2005 and is now distributed worldwide. Chinese Journal of Virology is included in the Outstanding S&T Journals of China, Chinese Core Journals of Science and Technology, A Guide to the Core Journals of China (published by Peking University), Research Center for Chinese Science Evaluation, Wuhan University, and Chinese Science Citation Database source journals. In addition, it is indexed in CA, BA, CBST, MEDLINE (PubMed), and WPRIM. Chinese Journal of Virology has been included in the databases of CNKI (Disc Edition) since December 30, 2008. It began to tentatively offer Advance Online Publication in 2009 and has been formally offering Advance Online Publication since 2011. The composite impact factor of Chinese Journal of Virology is 1.355, according to the Annual Report for Chinese Academic Journal Impact Factors (Basic Medical Sciences) (2015, Volume 13), ranking top among the journals of basic medical and biological sciences. The homepage of Chinese Journal of Virology on CNKI is http://bdxb.cbpt.cnki.net. Chinese Journal of Virology started a pilot program of bilingual publication on November 8, 2016 to publish papers in both Chinese and English on CNKI net.
Honorary Editor-in-Chief: HOU Yunde
Editor-in-Chief: SHU Yuelong
LIU Xiufan, FANG Rongxiang, WU Guizhen, JIN Qi, LIANG Mifang, LI Mengfeng, XIA Ningshao, TAN Wenjie, XU Wenbo, WANG Yumei
Chinese Journal of Virology,2020,Vol 36,No. 04
Since December 2019, a number of cases of unknown pneumonia have occurred in some hospitals in Wuhan, Hubei Province, which has been confirmed as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Unprecedented steps have been taken throughout China to vigorously carry out disease treatment and epidemic prevention. The statistical data published by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China were collected to predict the trend of the epidemic. In the traditional Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model, only infectious patients and non-infectious latent patients are considered. However, COVID-19 diagnosed patients cannot infect susceptible populations because they have been isolated in hospitals, whereas latent patients may be infectious. Based on this information, we proposed an improved model of infectious disease transmission: “ISEIR”. In ISEIR, patients were divided into outpatients (with infectivity) and inpatients (infectivity is not considered). Preclinical patients who were infectious were also considered. Model parameters were fitted dynamically with historical data to exclude the limitations of fixed parameters. The data of patients diagnosed early with COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China were seriously distorted. Therefore, according to the probability distribution of the daily effective reproduction number ( Rt), the clinical diagnosis data of February 12–14 were preprocessed and spread into previous data to correct the distortion of previous data. The epidemic situation was divided into two regions: the whole country (excluding Hubei Province, China) and Hubei Province. The new ISEIR predicted the further development of the future epidemic and calculated the change in daily Rt. Results revealed that the Rt of Hubei Province reduced gradually from 3.108. All patients would be cured and discharged from hospital around April 19. The initial Rt of China (excluding Hubei Province) was 1.929, and all patients would be cured around March 26. Results show that the epidemic has been suppressed effectively under strict prevention and control measures. It is also necessary to prevent the rebound of the epidemic situation caused by the resumption of employment.