Prediction: Great Earthquake may happen to these places--how far are we away from earthquake

Nov. 24,2015
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Circum-Pacific seismic belt is one of the most active seismic belts in the world, with 80% of shallow focus earthquakes, 90% of intermediate focus earthquakes and almost all of the deep focus earthquakes concentrating on it. The energy released by Circum-Pacific seismic belt accounts for 76% of the total energy released by global earthquakes. China locates in the west side of the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. The earthquake activity of Northeast china, North China and southeast coast region influenced by the subduction of Pacific Plate to Eurasian Plate to some extent. Scientists indicated that there were 3 earthquake tsunamis occurred in western Pacific among the 5 terrible global earthquake tsunamis, which affected coast region of China. The most recently occurred in Sumatra, Indonesia in 2004.

QIN Siqing, researcher of Institute of Geology and Geophysics, CAS, proposed the principles for preliminary dividing interpolate seismic zones and testing its reasonableness based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismic fault system. In addition, he and his team members analyzed the seismic process of the large or great earthquake events in the 15 seismic zones of the Circum-Pacific seismic belt from the angles of the definition of seismic period and the recognition of the main shock event. The forecast about the seismic situation in any seismic zone can be used for reference by the relevant national departments, and the specific conclusions are as follows.

(1) Taiwan island-Philippines sea seismic zone and Ryukyu islands-Taiwan island seismic zone have reached their critical states and great earthquakes can occur at any time.

(2) Great earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Mexico City, and Java Island-Maluku Islands, these islands are very close to their critical states now.

(3) Great earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Aleutian Islands-Vancouver-San Francisco-Guadalajara, Bogota-Arica-Valdivia, Suva-Wellington, New Guinea-Solomon Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and Hokkaido-Kamchatka. Great earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of San Salvador- San Jose and Melekeok, and these zones are very far from their critical states now.

(4) The Mw 9.1 earthquake occurred in Sumatra seismic zone in 2004 and the Mw 8.6 earthquake occurred in Chagos Archipelago seismic zone in 2012 are main shock events.

(5) Southern Panama City is a dangerous seismic zone with no less than Mw 7.2 earthquake.

The research also has shown that: the seismogenic mechanisms of the deep focus earthquake and shallow focus earthquake may be similar, and they are all brittle failure.

The research findings are published in the 2nd issue of Progress in Geophysics, 2015. The bilingual version will be launched in the near future.

Corresponding Author: QIN Siqing
CNKI Press Officer: ZHONG Ming

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