Trade policy uncertainty, tariff change and enterprise survivalFeb. 11,2020
The interactive superposition of rising trade policy uncertainty and tariff changes is an important risk factor that affects the survival of enterprises. In this paper, we measure the trade policy uncertainty, export tariff and the tariff on imported intermediate inputs at the firm level, and empirically explore the effects of trade policy uncertainty, tariff changes and the interaction term of the two on enterprise survival. According to the empirical results at the overall level, we obtain the following findings: the uncertainty of export trade policy has a significant negative impact on the survival of enterprises, while the export tariff has a significant positive impact on the survival of enterprises; the impact of the uncertainty of import trade policy is not significant, while the tariff on imported intermediate inputs has a significant negative impact on the survival of enterprises; with the increase of trade policy uncertainty, the positive effect of the export tariff on the survival of enterprises is weakened, and the negative effect of the tariff on imported intermediate inputs on the survival of enterprises is enhanced. The stratified empirical research shows that the survival of domestic enterprises and small and micro-sized enterprises is more significantly affected by the negative shocks from export trade policy uncertainty and the tariff on imported intermediate inputs.
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