How should pig production develop in China?Nov. 14,2019
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork. In 2017, the number of live pigs for sale in the country reached 689 million, and the output of pork was 53.4012 million tons, both ranking first in the world.
In recent years, the inter-provincial differences in the degree of large-scale pig breeding have become increasingly apparent. The suburbs of large cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai have basically achieved large-scale pig breeding. The degree of large-scale pig farming in developed areas represented by Shandong and Guangdong was also high, while the degree of large-scale pig breeding in the traditional big pig breeding provincial-level regions represented by Sichuan and Hunan had increased slowly. The academic circles have reached a consensus on the inevitability of the development trend of large-scale pig breeding and the transfer of pig breeding space. However, it is difficult to determine the degree of large-scale pig farming and the direction of spatial transfer.
The determinants of pig scale production and its spatial correlation: an analysis based on data from 13 main provincial-level regions of pig production in China by ZHANG Yuanyuan et al., has firstly analyzed the development history and inter-provincial differences of 13 pig breeding predominant provincial-level regions by using the large-scale pig breeding index, and then through the establishment of spatial Durbin model, the influencing factors of the first-level index, the second-level index and the difference of the two-level index in these provincial-level regions are compared and analyzed, which has confirmed spatial dependence of the development of large-scale pig breeding and the spillover effect of the influencing factors.
The result shows that: First, on the whole, China’s large-scale pig farming presents a basic trend of concentration in North China and Northeast China. However, the current level of large-scale pig farming is still low, which cannot be compared with the countries that are developed in animal husbandry. Second, the higher the farmers’ educational level, the lower the level of urbanization, the higher the proportion of wage income, the greater the pork consumption capacity, the lower the pork price index, the better the traffic accessibility, the greater the capacity for breeding pigs for sale, and the greater the intensity of environmental regulation are, the higher the degree of large-scale pig farming in the provincial-level region will be. Third, the degree of large-scale pig farming has a significantly positive spatial spillover effect among the 13 predominant pig breeding provincial-level regions, and the second-level index has the largest effect, while the first-level index has the least effect.
The author pointed out that: first, we must continue to optimize the spatial layout of national pig breeding. Considering the land carrying capacity and urbanization level of each region, economically developed regions can consider orderly exiting the pig breeding industry and formulating transformation and resettlement policies for exiting workers as soon as possible. Economically underdeveloped regions with good resource endowments should encourage the development of large-scale pig farming. Second, we must constantly improve the infrastructure, improve the main production areas, the main sale areas and the transportation network associated with production and sales, and provide convenient conditions for the healthy and sustainable development of pig breeding. Third, we must accelerate the improvement of the quality and efficiency of the pig industry, establish environmental protection barriers for pig breeding, increase investment in fixed assets in the pig breeding industry, improve the efficiency and management efficiency of pig breeding, and achieve a coordinated and win-win development of large-scale pig breeding and ecological environment protection.
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