The impact of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector: an empirical analysis of the provincial panel data in China

OU Guoli1 WANG Yan1

(1.School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044)

【Abstract】Different from the previous study of the factors influencing the carbon emissions of transportation in a phenomenal point of view, this paper explores the impact of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions in transportation, as technological progress is an essential driving force of carbon-reduction. With the theory of Multi Equilibrium and STIRPAT model, the effect of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions in transportation industry is analyzed based on China’s provincial transportation data from 2006–2015. The results show that: (1) There is a significant growth trend of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation, while the indexes of both general and specialized technological progress reveals a decreasing trend; (2) Nationwide, general technological progress will increase carbon dioxide emissions, which is in the “high carbon” path. At the same time, technological progress has a threshold effect on carbon emissions in transportation industry, depending on the population and economic development of this region, which leads to different paths of growth; (3) It fails to present the optimized path in which both general technological progress and specialized technological progress of carbon emission reduce carbon emissions. In order to improve the path of technological progress’s impact on carbon dioxide, three suggestions are put forward.

【Keywords】 transportation; technological progress; CO2 emissions; influence path;

【Funds】 Project of Beijing Social Science Foundation (16GLA003)

Download this article

(Translated by LI Mengling)

    References

    [1] International Energy Agency. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2016. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2016: 12–19.

    [2] Liu, Y., Guo, J. & Li, W. Journal of China West Normal University (Philosophy & Social Sciences Edition) (西华师范大学学报 (哲学社会科学版)), (3): 83–89 (2013).

    [3] Li, K. Technological Progress, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions (技术进步,经济增长和碳排放). Beijing: China Economic Publishing House, (2017).

    [4] Timilsina G R, Shrestha A. Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options. Energy Policy , 2009, 37 (11): 4523–4539.

    [5] Andreoni V, Galmarini S. European CO2 emission trends: A decomposition analysis for water and aviation transport sectors. Energy, 2012, 45 (1): 595–602.

    [6] Wu, K., He, C. Wang, G. et al. Economic Geography (经济地理), (11): 45–51 (2012).

    [7] Gao, B., Xu, Q. Li, Y. et al. Economic Geography (经济地理), (9): 25–30 (2013).

    [8] Wang, K., Li, J. Tang, Y. et al. China Population, Resources and Environment (中国人口·资源与环境), (5): 21–28 (2013).

    [9] Zhang Y J, Peng H R, Liu Z, et al. Direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in China: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach. Energy Policy, 2015, 87: 303–313.

    [10] Chen, X. Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business (河北经贸大学学报), (5): 91–95 (2016).

    [11] Li, L. & Wu, Q. Journal of Xi 'an University of Finance and Economics (西安财经学院学报), (6): 44–49 (2017).

    [12] Lu, X., Ma, X. & Xiong, S. Management Modernization (管理现代化), (3): 88–91 (2017).

    [13] Yuan, C., Zhang, S. Jiao, P. et al. Resources Science (资源科学), (4): 687–697 (2017).

    [14] Xu B, Lin B Q. Carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China’s transport sector: A dynamic VAR (vector autoregression) approach. Energy, 2015, 83: 486–495.

    [15] Fan F Y, Lei Y L. Decomposition analysis of energy-related carbon emissions from the transportation sector in Beijing. Transportation Research Part D: Transport & Environment, 2016, 42: 135–145.

    [16] Chen, B. & Xu, M. Ecological Economy (生态经济), (1): 20–24, 48 (2018).

    [17] Sun, J., Zhang, J. Tang, G. et al. China Population, Resources and Environment (中国人口·资源与环境), (5): 73–82 (2016).

    [18] Ehrlich P R, Holdren J P. Impact of population growth. Science, 1971, 171 (3977): 1212–1217.

    [19] Dietz T, Rosa E A. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence level and technology. Human Ecology Review, 1994 (1): 277–300.

    [20] York R, Rosa E A, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: Analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecological Economics, 2003, 46 (3): 351–365.

    [21] Peng, F., Wang, S. & Wu, Q. China Economic Quarterly (经济学 (季刊)), (4): 1041–1052 (2007).

    [22] Pang, R. Research on Productivity and Technology Change of China’s Transportation Industry (中国交通运输业生产力与技术变动研究). Beijing: Economic Management Press, 107–125 (2010).

    [23] Huang, J. & Ding, G. Science & Technology Progress and Policy (科技进步与对策), (18): 22–26 (2014).

    [24] Ehsani M, Ahmadi A, Fadai D. Modeling of vehicle fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emission in road transport. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016, 53: 1638–1648.

    [25] Schipper L, Scholl L, Price L. Energy use and carbon emissions from freight in 10 industrialized countries: An analysis of trends from 1973 to 1992. Transportation Research Part D: Transport & Environment, 1997, 2 (1): 57–76.

    [26] Li, J. & Zhang, G. Contemporary Finance & Economics (当代财经), (6): 3–14 (2016).

    [27] Hansen B E. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 1999, 93 (2): 345–368.

    [28] Ou, G. & Wang, R. Journal of Chang’an University (Social Science Edition) (长安大学学报 (社会科学版)), (1): 20–27 (2017).

This Article

ISSN:1671-4407

CN: 53-1193/F

Vol 34, No. 11, Pages 64-71

November 2018

Downloads:0

Share
Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Status analysis of carbon dioxide emissions from provincial transportation in China
  • 3 Theoretical model and research proposition of the impact of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions in transportation
  • 4 Research design
  • 5 Result analysis
  • 6 Conclusions and policy recommendations
  • References