The impact of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector: an empirical analysis of the provincial panel data in China

OU Guoli1 WANG Yan1

(1.School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044)

【Abstract】Different from the previous study of the factors influencing the carbon emissions of transportation in a phenomenal point of view, this paper explores the impact of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions in transportation, as technological progress is an essential driving force of carbon-reduction. With the theory of Multi Equilibrium and STIRPAT model, the effect of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions in transportation industry is analyzed based on China’s provincial transportation data from 2006–2015. The results show that: (1) There is a significant growth trend of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation, while the indexes of both general and specialized technological progress reveals a decreasing trend; (2) Nationwide, general technological progress will increase carbon dioxide emissions, which is in the “high carbon” path. At the same time, technological progress has a threshold effect on carbon emissions in transportation industry, depending on the population and economic development of this region, which leads to different paths of growth; (3) It fails to present the optimized path in which both general technological progress and specialized technological progress of carbon emission reduce carbon emissions. In order to improve the path of technological progress’s impact on carbon dioxide, three suggestions are put forward.

【Keywords】 transportation; technological progress; CO2 emissions; influence path;

【Funds】 Project of Beijing Social Science Foundation (16GLA003)

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(Translated by LI Mengling)


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This Article


CN: 53-1193/F

Vol 34, No. 11, Pages 64-71

November 2018


Article Outline


  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Status analysis of carbon dioxide emissions from provincial transportation in China
  • 3 Theoretical model and research proposition of the impact of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions in transportation
  • 4 Research design
  • 5 Result analysis
  • 6 Conclusions and policy recommendations
  • References