Information transmission mechanism in the cyber era and its challenge to the traditional strategic interaction

REN Lin1

(1.Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.)

【Abstract】Nuclear deterrence reduces the risk of war and has the effect of strategic stability. Whether deterrent strategy functions or not depends on valid mechanism of intention transmission in the interactions among countries. Traditional strategic deterrence such as nuclear deterrence has little effect on system stability in cyberspace for cyber space’s unique composition mode and behavior logic. In the Internet age, making strategic decisions needs to deal with massive, disordered and non-structured data. Commitment, deterrence, offense, defense and other main traditional intention transmission mechanisms may become invalid caused by the characteristics of cyber information transmission. The intention of the interacting parties is difficult to deliver effectively, and the two interacting sides may find it difficult to judge each other’s intentions, so that the “instant strike” strategy is preferred and retaliation attack would be taken even before an accurate confirmation on the prior attacker. The possibility of misclassification surges, and cyber space shows “strategic instability.” Over-reliance on direct impression may cause strategic miscalculation and escalation of conflicts in cyber space. To avoid this and gain advantages in the future strategic games, nation states should locate the strategic rivals, distinguish their intention and understand their behavior modes by quick analyses of big data. By doing so, they can reduce errors and improve the quality of strategic decisions. In sum, it is of great significance in theory and practice to make an analysis of strategic interaction logic from the perspective of network communication.

【Keywords】 cyber deterrence; cyber strategy; big data; strategic miscalculation; cyber security;

【Funds】 The Youth Program Fund of National Social Science Foundation titled as “the emerging countries’ institutional power construction and roadmap alternatives in global governance from the perspective of new security concepts” (14CGJ012)

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This Article

ISSN:1006-9550

CN: 11-1343/F

Vol , No. 11, Pages 73-90+157-158

November 2014

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 The traditional strategic interaction and the problem
  • 2 Strategic interactions in cyber space
  • 3 Strategic countermeasures in the cyber era: integration and mining of big data
  • 4 Conclusion