Information transmission mechanism in the cyber era and its challenge to the traditional strategic interaction
【Abstract】Nuclear deterrence reduces the risk of war and has the effect of strategic stability. Whether deterrent strategy functions or not depends on valid mechanism of intention transmission in the interactions among countries. Traditional strategic deterrence such as nuclear deterrence has little effect on system stability in cyberspace for cyber space’s unique composition mode and behavior logic. In the Internet age, making strategic decisions needs to deal with massive, disordered and non-structured data. Commitment, deterrence, offense, defense and other main traditional intention transmission mechanisms may become invalid caused by the characteristics of cyber information transmission. The intention of the interacting parties is difficult to deliver effectively, and the two interacting sides may find it difficult to judge each other’s intentions, so that the “instant strike” strategy is preferred and retaliation attack would be taken even before an accurate confirmation on the prior attacker. The possibility of misclassification surges, and cyber space shows “strategic instability.” Over-reliance on direct impression may cause strategic miscalculation and escalation of conflicts in cyber space. To avoid this and gain advantages in the future strategic games, nation states should locate the strategic rivals, distinguish their intention and understand their behavior modes by quick analyses of big data. By doing so, they can reduce errors and improve the quality of strategic decisions. In sum, it is of great significance in theory and practice to make an analysis of strategic interaction logic from the perspective of network communication.
【Keywords】 cyber deterrence; cyber strategy; big data; strategic miscalculation; cyber security;