The impact of contemporary young women’s late marriage on low fertility level

GUO Zhigang1,2 TIAN Siyu2

(1.The Center for Sociological Research and Development Studies of China, Peking University)
(2.Department of Sociology, Peking University)

【Abstract】The census data reveal that the fertility rate has kept declining and refreshing the lowest record repeatedly since China entered the period with a low fertility level. However, these results are always regarded as the statistical illusion caused by missing reports. For population publicity, management and decision making, another statistics of fertility rate based on indirect estimation are taken as the reference. Hence, the serious disconnection between the two might lead to a series of confusion and controversy. Based on the analysis of mass population data, this paper finds that the trend towards young women’s late marriage has a close correlation with the decline in the fertility rate. Meanwhile, the standardized comparison reveals that the factor of late marriage could lead to the great decline of fertility rate. Therefore, in order to understand why the fertility rate declines to a very low level, late marriage is an important factor that cannot be ignored.

【Keywords】 total fertility rate; proportion of the unmarried; standardized comparison;

【DOI】

【Funds】 This paper is the interim research output of the Key Research Program of the Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education (12JJD840005).

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(Translated by CHEN Wen)

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This Article

ISSN:1008-1437

CN: 11-3280/C

Vol , No. 06, Pages 16-25+91

November 2017

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Research background
  • 2 Literature review
  • 3 Data and methods
  • 4 Research findings
  • 5 Conclusion
  • References