【摘要】2008年国际金融危机之后, 中国经济波动明显加剧, 增速不断下滑。本文基于熊彼特“创造性破坏”思想, 通过改进AABM模型分析中国经济波动如何影响长期增长趋势, 并基于中国1979~2012年的省际面板数据实证检验理论模型的部分结论。研究发现:1978年之前, 中国经济短期波动与长期增长趋势之间呈现负相关;1978年之后到此轮经济下行之前, 中国经济短期波动和长期增长趋势之间呈现正相关;进入新常态以来, 中国经济短期波动和长期增长趋势之间又呈现负相关, 即在中华人民共和国经济史上, 经济波动与经济增长的关系呈现出“负—正—负”的阶段性特征。这3个阶段性特征背后的原因是不同的。1978年以来, 中国经济波动和经济增长正相关关系产生的主要原因是改革红利的释放, 即通过经济波动淘汰低效率企业和低效率投资项目、优化企业间的资源配置, 进而促进经济增长。随着低效率企业和低效率投资项目的减少以及改革逐渐步入深水区, 中国经济波动对经济增长的促进效应是递减的。逆转当前中国经济下行, 通过深化体制改革, 提高市场化程度, 促进金融发展, 来改进和优化资源在区域间、产业间重新配置是主要出路。
【基金资助】 国家社科基金重大项目“中国经济自发展能力研究” (15ZDB133) 的成果之一;
Impact of volatility in China’s economy on growth: the perspective of resource reallocation among firms
(2.School of Statistics, Renmin University of China)
【Abstract】After the 2008 global financial crisis, China’s economy has witnessed sharp volatility and continuous drop in growth rate. Based on the creative destruction theory by Schumpeter, this paper analyzed the impact of China’s short-term economic volatility on growth by improving the AABM model and empirically tested some findings of the theoretic model with the provincial panel data of China in 1979–2012. It is found that volatility and growth of China’s economy had a negative correlation before 1978; these two had a positive correlation between 1978 and the round of economic downturn; they have become negatively correlated again since the Chinese economy entered a new normal. That is, in the economic history of China, the relation between economic volatility and growth shows the phased feature of being “negative—positive—negative” due to different reasons. The unleashing of benefits brought about by reforms is the primary contributor to the positive correlation after 1978 when economic growth was stimulated by eliminating low-efficiency firms and investment projects and optimizing the allocation of resources among firms through economic volatility. As low-efficiency firms and investment projects are reduced and China’s reform has entered a deep-water zone, the facilitating effect of economic volatility on economic growth decreases progressively. The fundamental solution to Chinese economic downturn is to optimize the resource reallocation among regions and industries through marketization promotion and financial development brought by the deepening structural reform.
【Keywords】 economic volatility; economic growth; heterogeneous firm; cleaning effect;
【Funds】 Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China (15ZDB133);
. ① The data in Figure 1 are the periodic terms of the mean value of the real GDP per capita growth rate and standard deviation. The calculation is as follows. The GDP per capita during 1978–2014 in China are adjusted by the GDP deflator into real values with 1978 as the base period, the real GDP per capita growth rate is obtained based on the real GDP per capita, the mean value and standard deviation of the real GDP per capita growth rate are calculated with five years as a calculation interval, and the periodic term of the mean value and standard deviation of the per capita real GDP growth rate is obtained with the HP filter method, with the trend variation factor λ = 100. [^Back]
. ② Aghion et al. (2010) constructed a corporate decision-making model incorporating short-term investment and long-term investment, in which each firm can survive three periods. In the first period, the firm determines the amount of funds for short-term investment and long-term investment, among which the former brings a return in the second period, while the latter brings a return in the third period. Though it may be subject to a liquidity shock, long-term investment is conductive to effective labor accumulation. [^Back]
. ③ Equations (1)–(9) and (12)–(15) in the theoretical model basically follow the construction method of the AABM model, but to facilitate the analysis, three survival periods are adjusted to two. Equations (10), (11) and (16) are simplified and expanded based on the basic model for better calibration and simulation to intuitively reflect the correlation between economic volatility and economic growth. Equations (17)–(20) are created by this paper, aiming to explain the mechanism for the formation of the correlation between economic volatility and economic growth. [^Back]
. ④ According to the experience in the existing literature and China’s five-year national economic plans, the interval of five years is adopted for empirical analysis. Besides, three years and eight years are also taken as the intervals for robustness test. [^Back]
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