New cycle of the world economy and the changing dynamics

SHENG Lei1 QUAN Heng1

(1.Institute of World Economy of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)

【Abstract】After ten years of “new mediocre,” the world economy seems to have gradually shaken off the impacts of the global financial crisis and come out of the prolonged recession, and starts to show more positive signs of recovery and growth now. However, from the perspective of the long cycle, the current world economy remains in the phase of recession of the old development cycle on the whole, which means that it is still in a situation of “structural downturn” marked by low-medium rate of growth. The way out of “structural downturn” depends on the transition of the world economy from the old cycle to a new long cycle of development. Focusing on the long-term development of the world economy in the 21st century, we can see that the following “three changes” will help the world economy achieve the transition to a new development cycle. The first one is the new scientific and technological revolution, which will reshape new impetus for the world economic growth. The second one is the Belt and Road Initiative, which will reconstruct the new pattern of the development of globalization. The third one is the reform of the global governance system, which will rebuild the new rules for world economic development. What is worth mentioning is that in the transitional process of the world economy from the old development cycle to the new one, China in the new era will bring new opportunities to the world, not only contributing to the effective recovery and growth of the global economy, but also helping to steer the world economy towards a new stage of gestation and growth of a new round of long cycle.

【Keywords】 new scientific and technological revolution; the Belt and Road Initiative; global governance; new cycle of the world economy;

【DOI】

【Funds】 Youth Project of the National Social Sciences Fund (16CJY039) Key Project of the National Social Sciences Fund (15ZDC015) Innovative Think Tank Team Project of the Innovative Project of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences

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This Article

ISSN:1007-0974

CN: 11-3799/F

Vol , No. 04, Pages 86-101+6

July 2018

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Article Outline

Abstract

  • 1 Effective recovery of the world economy urgently needing the transition to a new long cycle
  • 2 Moving towards a long cycle of new development: scientific and technological revolution, the Belt and Road Initiative and global governance
  • 3 China in the new era helping to promote the cyclical transformation of the world economy
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