Empirical analysis on spatio-temporal evolution and driving forces of per capita grain possession in China
Economic Geography,Vol 35,No. 03
【Abstract】 This paper analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution and driving forces of per capita grain possession in China from 1990 to 2012 by variation coefficient and Theil index. The results are as follows: the change characteristics of per capita grain possession was rising with fluctuations at first, then declining with fluctuations, and then continuously rising; staged development of “slow to fast” was the characteristics of spatial difference change of per capita grain possession; the rising rate of per capita grain in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Henan, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Gansu and Anhui were larger, while the declining rate in Zhejiang, Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai and Fujian were larger; severe grain-shortage regions gathered in Beijing, Tianjin and the southeast coastal region，general grain-shortage regions scattered throughout China, regions of self-sufficiency in grain gathered in Western China, general grain-output regions gathered in Central China, and main grain-output regions gathered in Northeast China. The positive effect on per capita grain possession were the rural population per capita cultivated, the population of agricultural labor workers, the power of agricultural machinery per mu (1 hectare = 15 mu), the amount of fertilizer per mu, the degree of irrigation, preference to plant grain, multiple crop index and abolition of agricultural tax, while the negative effect were natural disaster degree and per capita Gross Domestic Production (GDP).
Management World,No. 03
【Abstract】 This article assessed China’s food safety status by food structure, grain circulation and trading. The study found that the “11th consecutive year” is accurately to be the realization of “11th consecutive year” in food total amount, and the reference point was the historical lowest grain yield at 2003. The main driver for the growth is from corn production increase, not the limited rations increase. Chinese food import undergoes substantial changes shifting from supply and demand regulation to large-scale imports. From the view of food structure, the trade of rations, especially the rice, may face great risks. Future food insecurity is more about the circulation and trade issues. Therefore, the government shall attach more importance to grain distribution and trade capacity when building grain comprehensive production capacity.
China Rural Survey,No. 01
【Abstract】 Based on internationally accepted concept of food security, this paper appraised the status, trends and problems of food security of China by constructing indices representing supply, distribution, consumption, utilization ratio, result, stability, sustainability and regulation ability, to appraise the status, trends and problems of food security of China. Result shows that food security of China is at high level and has kept rising during the past years. China has advantages in food security, which are manifested by the facts that many indices such as rate of self-sufficiency, per capita supply of energy and protein are higher than those of world average level, and even the average level of the developed nations. Main problems of food security of China are inappropriate composition of nutrition and unsustainability of environment. Further improvement of food security could be achieved by adjusting production structure, employing more environment-friendly way of production, emphasizing management of consumption, reducing overconsumption and losses, lowering rate of storage appropriately.
An empirical analysis on technical efficiency of grain production and its influencing factors from the perspective of poverty—based on the EBM-Goprobit model
China Rural Survey,No. 04
【Abstract】 This paper used the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013, adopted the latest EBM and Goprobit models in the DEA method, classified 30 provinces (cities or regions) into five categories according to the occurrence of poverty, analyzed technical efficiency of grain production in all categories of poor areas, and further found out the influencing factors. The conclusions were as follows. First, technical efficiency of grain production in poor areas had been the main factor restricting the increase in China's grain production since 2000; second, in relatively poor areas, the contribution rate of science and technology to the process of grain production was lower than the national average; third, the improvement of human capital was beneficial to poor areas for promoting technical efficiency of grain production; agricultural subsidies could distort technical efficiency of grain production in both poor and non-poor areas, but had promoting effects on very poor areas.
Chinese Rural Economy,No. 05
【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the comparative efficiency of Chinese grain production from the perspective of industrial benefits, benefits of agricultural production projects and workday earnings. The conclusion is that according to the official accounting, the cost-profit ratio of grain production is very high, but there is a serious phenomenon that it is virtual-high. If we calculate household labor input by the market labor price, the profit of grain production per mu (a unit of area (1 mu = 0.0667 hectares)) is low, and even negative. The cost-profit ratio, net income per mu and profit per mu of grain production are far lower than those of vegetable and fruit production. Before 2010, the workday earnings of grain production gradually improve, even a little higher than daily wages of local workers (employed in busy farming season). But after 2010, they are gradually lower than the workday earnings of local workers and migrant workers. This paper holds that the core issue of the lower efficiency of Chinese grain production is that the annual profit of grain agriculture is lower, and the main reason is the underemployment of grain agriculture in time and space. The fundamental way to improve annual profit of grain production is to expand the scale of operation, and to match the advantage of unit benefit of high-price crop with advantage of scale.
Chinese Rural Economy,No. 11
【Abstract】 The rigidly rising price of China’s grain and the constantly decreasing price of international grain led to the price of domestic grain significantly higher than that of international grain, also caused the squeeze effect of China’s grain market. This paper analyzed the mechanism of the squeeze effect of China’s grain market and the change in the wheat and corn production cost of China and America as well as the international shipping expense of grain. What the research results showed were as the follows. The squeeze effect mainly originated from the change in the grain production cost both at home and abroad. Especially, the proportion of domestic labor cost was great and the growth range was large, and the rising range of domestic land cost was significant while the decrease in the international shipping expense of grain prompted the further decrease in the CIF price of imported grain. Meanwhile, given the negative effect of the squeeze effect of the grain market, this paper calculated space for reducing the import tariff of grain when the prices of grain at home and abroad were in an inverted relation in 2015, and the result was that space for reducing the tariff of major grain varieties was very limited in China.
New and effective solutions to the problem of grain security: enhancing the development of the forage grass industry
Chinese Rural Economy,No. 12
【Abstract】 During 2003–2014, China’s grain production had achieved the eleventh increase in a row. Meanwhile, China’s agriculture also faces the shortage of water and land resources, outstanding problems of quality and security of products, heavy pressure on the ecology, low production efficiency and other outstanding restraints. The traditional ideas must be reconsidered from a fresh and wide perspective for solving the problem of grain security. This paper suggests that grain security should be repositioned from the perspective of the entire food system. Currently, the problem of grain security in China is forage security in essence, namely, the sufficient supply, and quality and security of animal products. China’s agricultural structure has been adjusted basically every 20 years, namely, the monotonous structure of grain as the key link from the middle 1950s to the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, the dual structure of grain crops + cash crops from 1978 to 1992, and the triple structure of grain crops, cash crops and forage crops from 1992 to the present. Now, China’s agricultural structure has entered another new period for adjustment. In the current planting structure of grain crops + cash crops + forage crops, the planting area of forage crops actually accounts for over 20%, but the planting area of forage grass keeps at around 1%, so the development of forage grass industry has long remained sluggish. The forage grass industry must be introduced to the agricultural production system to advance the quadruple planting structure of grain crops + cash crops + forage crops + forage grass, so as to increase grain production directly or indirectly, reduce consumption of grain directly or indirectly, and finally reach the goal of grain security by multiple solutions.
China Rural Survey,No. 06
【Abstract】 Grain security is a core problem of issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers in China, and the outflow of rural labor force may have a significant influence on grain security. This paper used the panel data from 2001 to 2013, based on the extended C-D production function to make an empirical analysis of the outflow of rural labor force’s influences on grain production and its regional differences. The results showed that the outflow of rural labor force had a remarkable negative influence on grain production in the main sales areas of grain. However, it had no significant influences on grain production in major grain-producing areas and areas with the balance between production and sales. Fully considering the difference of resources endowments and regional characteristics in different areas, making different policies of labor mobility and grain security will be beneficial to ensure the safety of China’s food supply.
What are the main factors that determinate China ’s future grain yield increase? —an analysis based on China’s grain yield increase for ten consecutive year
Chinese Rural Economy,No. 06
【Abstract】 Against the background of China’s grain yield increase for ten consecutive years from 2004 to 2013, this study, through the decomposition of the grain output equation, finds that grain yield increase is influenced by three factors: yield per unit area, sown area and adjustment of planting structure, and then it further calculates how the above three factors contribute to the “ten consecutive years’ growth.” The results show that the increase of crop yield per unit area contributes the most to grain yield increase. For that reason, the study further builds the Cobb-Douglas function model to analyze the effects of various inputs, policies, climate and farmer’s behavior on yield per unit area. The results show that financial support for agriculture, seed and machinery operation are important driving factors to increase yield per unit area; meanwhile, temperature and rainfall have significantly positive effects on yield per unit area of wheat and maize, and farmer’s expected returns have significantly positive effects on yield per unit area of rice and maize. Thus, it can be concluded that China’s future grain yield increase will more and more depend on improved excellent varieties and machinery investment, which must be supported by policies in terms of governmental agricultural research and popularization and mechanization of agriculture.
The opening of Chinese grain market and international grain price fluctuations: an analysis based on the overflow effect of grain price fluctuations
Chinese Rural Economy,No. 08
【Abstract】 This article uses the co-integration test and vector auto-regression (VAR) model to analyze the relations between Chinese grain prices and international grain prices. With the Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK) model, it analyzes the overflow effect of international grain price fluctuations on Chinese grain price fluctuations. The study shows that there is no obvious co-integration relation between Chinese grain prices and international grain prices. Nevertheless, when the grain market is becoming more open, the co-integration level between Chinese grain prices and international grain prices is increasing. International grain price fluctuations have big impacts on Chinese grain price fluctuations, but the impacts are different among different varieties of grain. International grain price fluctuations have significant overflow effects on Chinese grain price fluctuations, and the overflow effects are strengthened by the opening of China’s grain market.