Sponsored by Renmin University of China
ISSN 1000-6087 CN 11-1489/C
6 issues per year
Discipline(s): Sociology & Demography
Current Issue: Issue 02, 2018
Population Research, founded in 1977, aims to provide forum for sharing new research achievements, new data and new analytic methods. The goal of the journal is to provide theoretical basis for government policy making, contribute to the solving of Chinese population issues, and render service for the scientific development of population and family planning.
Editor-in-Chief Zhai Zhenwu Associate Editor-in-Chief Chen Wei Yao Yuan
The estimation of death underreporting in the 2010 population census based on DCMD model life tables
Vol 42,No. 02
Young-age and old-age death probabilities are essential for accurate estimation of life expectancy at ages 0 and 60, which have major implications for the formulation of endowment insurance and other policies. Previous studies have testified that death underreporting commonly exists in the mortality data of young-age and old-age groups, and various approaches of modification were offered. This paper recalculated sex-specific life tables of China and life expectancy at ages 0 and 60 for the 2010 population census based on the DCMD model life tables, using child mortality data from UNICEF, adult mortality information from IHME, and old-age mortality derived from the sex-specific population aged 60–75 in the census. The underreporting rates of young-age mortality and old-age mortality are estimated. The result shows that in the 2010 population census adjusted infant mortality is 16.41‰ for males and 15.94‰ for females, implying underreporting rates of 77.3% and 75.5% respectively; the adjusted old-age (from 60 to 89) death probabilities are 0.703 for males and 0.595 for females with the underreporting rates being 2.3% and 7.0% respectively.
Vol 42,No. 02
Based on the de jure population database of the 121 national monitoring counties in 2013 from the National Health and Family Planning Commission, this study employs the revised Lee-Carter model to decompose the second birth intervals for women aged 20 to 50 between 1980 and 2013 into three parts: the age-specific minimum second birth interval, the age-specific elasticity of the second birth interval, and the overtime change of the second birth interval. The results show that the minimum second birth interval ranges from 1.2 to 1.7 years. Increasing age of women is associated with increasing minimum second birth interval. The age-specific elasticity curve demonstrates an S-shape, which fluctuates gently between age 20–30, increases linearly between age 30–45, and declines slightly after age 45. Finally, the time effect on the second birth interval is negative between 1986 and 1996 while it is positive between 1980 and 1985 and between 1997 and 2013. These findings may help deepen our understanding of the age-specific pattern and time fluctuation of the second birth interval in China.
Vol 42,No. 02
Employing data from China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) in 2014,this paper analyzed the situation and characteristics of financial planning behaviors of Chinese elderly for their later life. Furthermore, this paper explored heterogeneity of the Chinese elderly in their financial planning behaviors and identified the ones with high inclinations to conduct financial planning. The results revealed that the way of cash savings was still the most important way of financial preparation for the elderly. Elderly in urban and rural areas had high preference for financial investment and land transaction respectively. Significant diversity could be found in the planning behaviors of the elderly, such as the differences in financial planning among the elderly in different cohorts and with different characteristics and social situations. The elderly lived in the eastern area, urban areas, and the cohorts who were born late were more likely to make financial planning. Meanwhile, social situations interacting with elderly’s characteristics and individual capacity affected their financial planning.
Vol 42,No. 02
Using 2016 national sampling survey data, this paper analyzes the intergenerational effects of gender preference on the first married women in urban China. The influence is observed through either parents’ gender preference for grandchildren or parents’ fertility behavior represented as the siblings’ gender structure of the women. Results show that women’s parents have positive effects on their gender preference regardless of the number of the desired children, while the effects of their parents-in-law are significant only for their first child. The sibling’s gender structure of the women also has significant positive effect on their gender preference. In addition, compared with the only child, women who grew with both brothers and sisters have stronger male preference. The findings imply that although the majority of urban women have no gender preference for the first child and have both son and daughter preference when desire to have two children, there are exceptions who still prefer boys. Their parents’ desire and behavior play important roles on their son preference. This paper also finds that the gender structure of women’s existing children and the provinces where they live significantly affect women’s gender preference.
Vol 42,No. 02
With the continuous extension of life expectancy, the negative impact of population aging may be exaggerated by using a static age perspective. In this paper, we try to forecast the population aging trend of China under different age criteria in 2010–2050 and analyze their effects on total health expenditure. The results show that aging rate measured with prospective age would be much lower than that measured with chronological age and the health expenditure for the elderly would be considerably reduced. The implications are that the ratio of labor force to the elderly population would change, which would reduce health expenditure. However, in achieving that, it is necessary to promote the relevant social policies such as encouraging the postponement of retirement age, changing the concept of health service, and reforming the health service system.