Finance & Trade Economics,Vol 39,No. 04
Recently, the policy that relaxes population control has obviously received a lukewarm response, and China’s population growth is facing a huge risk of “cliff-like drop.” With text analysis and the quasi-experimental method, this paper theoretically and empirically demonstrates the changes in the cost of raising children in urban and rural areas and the influence on the birth rate, and then on the effect of the two-child policy. The results show that in recent years, as the cost of raising children changes, the rural families’ desire for procreation has been greatly reduced, while that of urban families has increased slightly, a decline on the whole when the two are combined. At the same time, since the actual birth rate is much lower than the willingness to multiply, the two-child policy fails to achieve ideal results. The key to the future population policy reform in China is to draw lessons from the historical experience of developed countries, and eliminate the adverse effects of changes in costs of raising children through incentive measures.
Selection Activities of Scenic Spots, supply of government public services and regional tourism economic development
China Industrial Economics,No. 02
Tourism economy is considered to be the green driving force of regional economic growth and industrial upgrading. In order to promote the development of tourism economy, governments often present the local scenic spots to the outside world through “Selection Activities of Scenic Spots” (SASS). Do these activities promote rapid development of the local tourism economy? With the help of quasi-natural experiment from China’s National Scenic Areas (CNSA), this paper uses panel data of 283 prefecture-level cities from 2002 to 2015 and difference-in-differences method to study the influence of SASS on regional tourism economic development. The results of the study are as follows. After being selected as CNSA, the tourism economic indicators have not been significantly promoted. Further mechanism analysis shows that CNSA lack of the assessment and evaluation from the higher departments. As a result, the development of supporting public services in the scenic area lags behind, and the promotion effects on the tourism economy failed. Since 2012, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development started to examine and assess the CNSA, and the role of scenic spots in driving tourism economy has started to rise. The above logic has been supported and strengthened after a series of robustness tests. This paper provides not only empirical support for the assessment of scenic spots by relevant departments, but also important inspiration for the development of tourism economy in the future.
Independence, accountability, and participation: the multilateral reform of international investment arbitration and China’s options
The Journal of International Studies,Vol 39,No. 02
The reform of international investment arbitration is now in the multilateral phase and it is critical for China to evaluate its positions and options. The design of international investment arbitration should address the inherent tension between localness of substantive obligations and internationality of arbitral procedures. In theory, it is impossible for investment arbitration to pursue and realize the objectives of judicial independence, accountability and participation simultaneously and equally. In practice, traditional investment arbitration and European Union’s International Court System (ICS) proposals are driven by judicial independence for an impartial platform and accountability for a just forum respectively. They are also dominated by the relations between the disputing parties and relations between contracting states respectively. The 2012 U.S. Model Bilateral Investment Treaty better balances the tension between judicial independence and accountability as well as the relations between economic efficiency and political feasibility. Despite failing to reconcile all three objectives, the U.S. and E.U. both chose the design plans more suitable for their comparative advantages. China’s approach to investment arbitration reform should reconcile China’s national interests and the world demand, balance the relations among contracting states, disputing parties and stakeholders, and enhance the internal stability and progressiveness. Meanwhile, China should adopt the designs most suitable for China’s comparative advantages in key provisions, such as compulsory arbitrator list, finality of first award with limited appeal, and limited participation of stakeholders in order to accommodate both national interests and international justice.
World Economics and Politics,No. 09
The Indian Ocean is a strategically significant region for both India and China in the 21st century. As India wants to occupy and manage the Indian Ocean, it seems that there will be an inevitable tension between India and China in this region. In general, India is vigilantly against China’s progress in this area, but the severity of the specific reaction varies from high to low based on the sensitivity of the issue. India prefers countering and containing on highly sensible issues to low sensible issues. Moreover, the mainstream domestic cognition and understanding in India may reshape the low sensible issues so as to impact or alter India’s reactions. However, it does not much matter to Indian reactions whether China adopted multilateral or bilateral entrance into the ocean. China should consider India’s special demands for the Indian Ocean so that it can strengthen its cooperation with India in this region. Simultaneously, in order to reinforce the strategic bases and enlarge the friendship, China should enhance the cooperation with those middle powers and small countries in the Indian Ocean. Last but not least, China should also pay a special attention to the India’s over-interpretation about China’s entry.
International Economic Review,No. 01
Firstly, the world economic activities are generally at a low level. Secondly, the global financial crisis in 2008 has had a huge impact on the fundamentals of the world economy, dragging on the world economic growth both in overall status and growth rate. Thirdly, although the world economy needs to be driven by the aggregate demand, the world lacks space for fiscal and monetary policies. Fourthly, the world economy is faced with some deep structural changes. As a result, the world economy will continue to be in a structural downturn.