Stance and dynamic adjustment of the monetary policy: an empirical study of China Monetary Policy Report
Financial Economics Research,Vol 30,No. 04
By analyzing the quarterly China Monetary Policy Reports from 2001 to2014,this paper constructs a monetary policy stance measure framework. Then,considering the importance of the policy objectives,this paper empirically analyzes the dynamic adjustment of Chinese monetary policy by utilizing ordered choice model. The results show that the model that distinguishes the importance of the policy objectives can better characterize the dynamic relationship between monetary policy and output gap as well as inflation gap. The People's Bank of China will change the adjustment intensity and direction of the monetary policy according to the macroeconomic situation. When the inflation gap becomes larger,price stability will be the priority of monetary policy goals. When the output gap becomes smaller or negative,economic growth will be the priority of monetary policy goals.
Chinese Rural Economy,No. 04
This paper simulates the future trends of the pork market through constructing the market models of live pig production, import and export trade, urban and rural residents’ consumption, price transmission and market clearing in order to provide analysis of the present situation of China’s pig industry as well as a look into its prospects. The simulation results show that there has been continuous improvement in China’s pork market scale and productivity, steady growth in pork consumption, continuous increase in imports and decline in exports; it is estimated that China will have a live pig inventory of 556.4106 million by 2025, among which the inventory of breeding sows will be 60.4215 million and that of slaughtered pigs will be 993.2853 million, with a slaughter rate of 178.52%; the pork production and consumption will be respectively 81.9073 million tons and 85.9654 million tons, with the port self-sufficiency rate of 95.28%.
Chinese Rural Economy,No. 04
In recent years, prices of China’s agricultural products on the whole are maintained at a relatively high level; and in the market operation of agricultural products (especially bulk farm-products like grain and cotton), there are contradictory phenomena emerging, for example, high yield, high consumption, high import and high inventory are contradictory. At the same time, China’s agricultural policies are faced with problems such as price “floor” and price “ceiling” problems out of production cost increase. To this end, this paper firstly combs market the operational conditions of both the global and China’s agricultural markets in recent years briefly, and focuses on analysis and assessment of China’s major policies in the agricultural market on this basis. This paper thinks that the implied condition for China’s policy logic of agricultural market is the overall level elevation of the price of agricultural products. While under the context of global economic downturn and long-term price plummet of agricultural product price, China’s overall policy system of agricultural market will be faced with great impacts, such as, price inversion, subsidy “yellow line,” and agricultural products smuggling. Finally, for the long-term development of China’s agricultural production, this paper thinks that the focus of policies should be to guarantee agricultural production ability and improve agricultural productivity. There is no sense to simply pursue the growth of output quantity. Therefore, in the future, China should establish an agricultural safety network which, as a stereoscopic agricultural policy system, can achieve agricultural risk sharing and independent production decision, and comprehensively use policy instruments such as supervision, negotiation, subsidy, insurance and credit.
Chinese Rural Economy,No. 06
Community supporting agriculture is a postmodern action as a response to certain modern social outcomes. Such an action is characterized by its transcendence and embeddedness, which are unified even though they seem to be conflicting with each other. The support from the community for agriculture to develop locally is influenced by postmodern views about agricultural production and nature. The ideology about production and unique products have made CSA different from the general ways of organizing agricultural production which are existing in current social economic system. Hence, CSA shows certain transcendence. However, neither various factors of production required by CSA nor the survival of producers for CSA can be separated from current environment of development and modernization. People are facing many difficulties when taking actual actions for CSA. Hence, CSA shows certain embeddedness. Such transcendence and embeddedness of CSA are inseparable, just like the two sides of the same coin. Such integration of two features into one entity makes the natural development of a society possible.
The substitution between physical capital and heterogeneous labor in China: a theoretical analysis and empirical estimation
Economic Review,No. 01
Physical capital and human capital as the two key elements of economic growth have been widely discussed in studies on economic growth. However, the internal connection between them is rarely concerned about. By constructing a two-level CES production function, substitution parameters between capital and different types of labor in China are estimated through a nonlinear OLS technology in this paper. The results show that physical capital and human capital are complementary. Unlike that of the developed countries, China’s physical capital is more complementary with “mid-range” human capital. Namely, physical capital is more complementary with laborers who have junior and senior high school education than with others. Therefore, the unemployment problem of the “low-range” labor and the employment problem of the “high-range” labor are the important livelihood issues in economic transition in China.